Rep. Hooley (D-OR) Retires
By dld1717 Posted in 2008 | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (31) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
OR-05 is a major pickup opportunity where Bush won in 2000 by a 50-49 margin - Adam C
Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) told The Oregonian that she will retire from Congress when her term expires at the end of this year. This would be the sixth open House seat for Democrats to defend as compared to 24 open House seats for Republicans.
CQ rates OR-5 as Oregon's "most contestable seat."
Businessman Mike Erickson, Hooley's unsuccessful Republican challenger in the 2006 election, already had announced plans to run again.
Here's a map of the 5th, it's a red-leaning purple district.
I'm in Corvallis, just outside the boundaries, but I might just have to go and help Mr. Erickson's campaign. This is a very winnable race for us!
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
We had great coverage from Eabo-Clipper on the Ogo race in MA-05. It would be good to look at his diary for how often and what kind of material is good to cover.
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2004: 50-49 Bush
2000: 49-47 Bush
This is a Bush district in a state where McCain polls very well for an R. This should be a major pick-up opportunity.
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It looks like an R was already running pretty strong. Michael Erikson is in the race and has $130,000 cash on hand.
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It seems that a while back there was a Republican primary between a State Senator and a Lake Oswego City Councilman who were running to take on Hooley... I liked them both. Hooley always had to run as a "New Democrat" to keep this district.
JC Watts for Vice President
Please sign the petition here.
"Character is simply doing right when no one is looking."
Michael Erikson is also a multi-millionaire, so he is capable of doing a lot of self-financing.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
I forgot to add this is a very competitive district:
2000/2004
Bush 49 Gore 47
Bush 50 Kerry 49
Erickson lost with only 42.8% and he spent a lot of his own money so I think the GOP may want to look for an alternative
1) Self-funder
2) 43% against a longtime incumbent is good, although the two challengers before got 44% and 45%.
3) 43% is darn good in 2006 when most districts went 5-7 points to the left.
With that in mind, he would have been in the 48% range against the incumbent. Now it's an open seat with a Presidential candidate who does well in OR. He could be a great candidate.
That all being said, we'll see who else gives it a try.
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against her opponent... it was a strange strategy for the Oregon GOP.
and I forgot to add he spent in 06 more then a million of his own money
sorry
You beat me to it, bud.
This is the first Dem seat to open up that the Republicans can make a legitimate play for. Really big news. And Erickson is a multi-millionaire who grabbed 43% of the vote in 2006, one of the worst years ever for Republicans.
Other Positive news:
PA - Bartletta finally announced. This turns the Hazelton district, normally safely Dem, into a competitive seat (although Kanjorski is still slightly favored). I would recommend that Bartletta not focus solely on immigration, however, to avoid being tagged as a one issue candidate. But he certainly should be able to raise money.
AZ - McCain's presidential nomination is great news for the three competitive seats in AZ, two held by freshmen Democrats, and one an open seat currently held by a Republican. McCain will easily carry all three districts. Further, one Dem, Harry Mitchell, was outraised by one of his GOP opponents (unfortunately, there are more than one).
NH - Bob Clegg, a state senator, announced that he would challenge Dem Freshman Paul Hodes. Clegg has money, and a good top of the ticket mate (McCain) to provide coattails. Unfortunately, there is one other credible candidate, Jen Horn, which could lead to a tough primary.
TX - Lampson actually raised less money than did one of his Republican opponents. Not good, in a district that will overwhelmingly go GOP for President.
Negative News
VA - Tom Davis retired, leaving behind a Dem leaning district. The positives here, however, are that the GOP has a candidate who can raise money - Keith Fimian - and the Dems are likely to have a high spending and brutal primary with two flawed candidates.
NY - Jim Walsh retired, and his favored Republican successor, DA Fitzpatrick, backed down from running. This leaves the GOP without a candidate to face the Dem who barely lost in 2006, Dan Maffei.
I am interested in some info on Arizona races. I know we have a great candidte against Giffords in Arizona but I have not heard much on who is challenging Mitchell?
currently holds. That one is definitely retakeable. Do you know who the Pub candidates are? Would love to know.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
He only won cause Hayworth was deemed corrupt.
Who again is running against him?
to find out. Got a lot of friends still down there that I'd love to get motivated if there was the right candidate to spark the flame.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
You forgot some more positive news in Indiana
Another Dem ( State Senator) entered the fractured race to fill Carson's seat. The Dems have a bitter primary held March 6th to determine who they nod for Nov race and 5 days later on 11th is special election between Andre Carson and Jon Elrod.
A new poll out shows Carson is up by only 3 points
Go to Jonelrod.com and donate!
(1) This should be a diary
(2) Is this Carson up by only 3 points over Elrod?
Yes and even worse it was done by a Democrat polling firm
The election day is March 11th and Jon could use the money so please visit the site and donate
Very impressive guy for his age and gives the party another great image maker.
Do you have a link to this or a pdf? I'd love to write a Human Events column about this.
Of the Republican incumbents who won with less than 60% of the vote in 1994, all of their districts were held by Democrats by years' end.
This is good news. And this is the best things Rs have going for them in the long run -- There are 60+ dems in seats carried by Bush, and they can't serve in Congress forever.
Well the census and redistricting will also play a huge part as well. The fact TX, GA, SC, Utah are all expected to gain seats is good for us. North Carolina is too buts its Dem controlled (win by GOP in Governor race would be great) and Arizona is as well but they have a independent commission which draws lines
MA is expected to lose seat (definite DEM), NY lose 2 ( thats why GOP needs to hold State Senate and with Spitzer being so unpopular a GOP back at helm would possibly save at least 1) NJ is going to lose 1, OH and MI look too as well
Former state GOP chairman Kevin Mannix, a former state representative and two-time gubernatorial candidate, is considered a possible candidate, as are state Reps. Scott Bruun, R-West Linn, and Brian Boquist, R-Dallas, who ran unsuccessfully against Hooley in 2002.
Potential Democratic candidates include Paul Evans, a military policy adviser to Gov. Ted Kulongoski whose wife Joan is Hooley's chief of staff, and a husband-and-wife pair, Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader and her husband, state Sen. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby.
Oregon posters! Wouldn't Mannix be a very strong candidate here? I know he is 2 time loser statewide but he must of done well in this area?
he is good on law and order issues, but alienates the OR electorate in bigger elections...
he has an image of losing.
Conservative Female African-American businesswoman and State Senator Jackie Winters would be the perfect nominee.
I thought she already ran an lost here as well?
AZ5 - David Schwikert would be the best nominee for this one (Club4Growth backed!)
MD1 - Andrew Harris hopefully would send RINO Wayne Gilchrest packing and EJ Pipkin hopefully won't fare well enough.
I read Darlene Hooley's voting record and it's way too far left for a so called "New Democrat" (albeit a NDINO, new democrat in name only), and out of touch with the people in OR5.
I live in NY25 and hear that Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks is on the short list for the Rs. Maffei, although favored, is a carpetbegger like D-Eric Massa from NY29 (southern tier NY) challenging Kuhl.
Hate to bearer of bad news but Maggie Brooks announced she is not running. The open Walsh seat is looking tough to hold and I still can't believe we are not giving Hall a good run for his money in upstate NY too.
NY Republicans are focusing all on keeping state senate
Open Hooley Seat Update OR 5
State Sen. Kurt Schrader announced Monday that he'll run for retiring U.S. Rep. Darlene Hooley's Congressional seat, becoming the first Democrat to jump into what's shaping up as a marquee race for both parties.
Forgot to add:
All but in is former Salem Rep. Kevin Mannix, known for his anti-crime ballot initiatives, who has high name recognition from several previous attempts at winning statewide office.
Hopefully with McCain at the top of the ticket he will have some coattails here in Oregon.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.