Redstate

By Martin A. Knight Posted in Archived | primaries | republicans picking republicans — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

This story in the Washington Times about the RNC rejiggering the 2012 Primary schedule reminded me of one of the more interesting diaries, especially in terms of being forward looking and creative, that I've seen thus far this year; EPU's starter proposal diary to alter/fix the Primary system so that actual Republicans, those who are as close to a 100% certain of casting their votes for a Republican President on Election Day get to have (at the very least) the first word on who the nominee would be.

I actually wanted to write this up back then, but I didn't and I thought the entire subject had gone too stale to bring it back up, especially with the spectacle of our good friend Barry Henry O'Bama's recent travails. But since the higher-ups in the GOP (one of the few times the rank-and-file and the leadership are actually seeing eye to eye) have brought it up ...

Either way, long-term Redstater Saul Anuzis, who also happens to be the Chairman of the Michigan GOP, posted up a diary about this earlier this morning. Take a look and get to find out about the "Ohio Plan" (and the alternative "Delaware Plan") the RNC Rules Committee just recently voted out to be considered by the full Republican National Committee in August before the convention where we are going to coronate John McCain as the successor to President Bush.

Rightly or wrongly, the perception is that this year, the Republican nomination was essentially decided by non-Republicans in the early open primary states before the GOP rank and file in the closed primary states got a chance to have their say on the matter. This may or may not be true, but, personally, while I appreciate EPU's argument that only Republicans should be selecting the Republican nominee i.e. "no more open primaries" I believe that the candidate's appeal to the "middle" - i.e. "moderates", Independents, "undecideds" - swing voters, needs to be part of the equation.

In 2006, the Great TURN OUT!!!™ Delusion that unfortunately infested the minds of all of the GOP's top officials (and trickled down to quite a few people here on RS) caused us to ignore the prior-to-then well-known fact that Republicans alone cannot win elections for the GOP. Instead, we got "Outreach? NO! Issues? NO! Ads? NO! Polls? NO! NO! NO! All we need is TURN OUT! TURN OUT!! TURN OUT!!!" Needless to say, the results resoundingly (re)proved that we really do need to make some effort towards convincing a fair number of folks from the fence sitting middle to set their feet down on our side.

Which is why I think that to completely cut out open primaries, which serve the purpose of allowing us gauge the appeal of a nominee to the "middle," would be a mistake. I would be in favor of a plan (necessarily negotiated by the RNC and the various state parties) that will reduce the number of open primaries though, and start the nomination process with caucuses and primaries in closed states before going to an interlaced series of open and closed primary states until the eventual nominee emerges. An addition I would suggest (barring conflict with state laws) is one where the states are randomly picked to play host to open or closed primaries/caucuses four years in advance at the National Convention(s), and also their order - with five or slightly more closed states going first. i.e.

That said , looking at the lay of the battlefield eight months out from Election Day, with;

1. a Presidential candidate (whose own fault it is) that a significant percentage of the GOP is not enthused about ...
2. near rock-bottom recruiting numbers, only marginally better than the unmitigated disaster that was Liddy Dole ...
3. a President happy and content to mire in the 30s in the polls ...
4. lesser numbers of Governor's Mansions and state legislative seats than at any time in the past twelve years, meaning that the 2010 round of redistricting is going to be brutal ...
5. the well-nigh non-existence of the party in almost every urban district/constituency in every part of the nation ...
6. polling numbers below the Democrats even while the Democratic-led Congressional ratings are in the teens ...
7. etc.

... I'm of the opinion that the Republican Party needs to do a lot more than tinker with our Presidential nomination process to emerge a stronger party after Election Day.

But it's as good a place to start as any.