Redstate Roundtable #4: The GOP/Conservative Domestic Agenda 2009-2012
By Neil Stevens Posted in Earmarks | Medical Care | Policy | Redstate Roundtable | Schools | Social Security | Spending | taxes — Comments (64) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
For this week's roundtable, let's discuss what Republicans in general and conservatives in particular should pursue as our top domestic federal legislative priorities over the next four years. Obviously, if McCain is elected, or if the GOP recaptures at least one House of Congress in November, we will have a foothold from which Republicans can propose a legislative agenda of our own. If none of those things happen, we should still consider what our agenda should look like besides (as the late Bill Buckley would say) simply standing athwart Obamania shouting "stop."
Read on for the discussion...
Dan McLaughlin: Personally, I'm voting in this election cycle mainly on defense and judges, since after the fiasco of 2005-06 (especially the Social Security flop) I'm not optimistic that we are going to make much in terms of successful domestic legislative inroads in the near future. But we have no future as a party or a movement if we don't try. So what should be at the top of our list of battles we could win or that would be worth fighting even unsuccessfully? And if McCain wins the White House, which of those battles might be plausibly be willing to lead?
Leon H. Wolf: I think that McCain can and will lead when it comes to fighting wasteful spending. One idea that I particularly liked that Senator Brownback touted when I worked for him was a BRAC-type process for all non-discretionary spending programs. After all, it's the non-discretionary stuff that really gums up the works. Outrageous pork projects and earmarks are good for headlines, but if McCain is going to lead a movement that actually reduces the size of government, he has to come up with a way to reduce non-discretionary spending that targets it all in a uniform way.
Dan McLaughlin: Not to get us too far off track but a BRAC style commission is one area where if they can put the primary campaign aside, Mitt Romney might actually prove of great use to a McCain Administration. Identifying duplicative and wasteful government programs is a classic job for an experienced management consultant.
One area where I would like to see us finally put some legislative muscle behind is school choice, possibly even to the point of converting a lot of current federal aid to school districts into federal vouchers. I know it's not always popular within the GOP for a lot of reasons: it means putting more federal money and federal power into a traditional state area for social-program reasons, and largely to benefit kids whose parents don't vote Republican, and some suburban parents don't really want poor kids coming into their school districts. That said, it's an area where McCain ran to Bush's right in 2000 and one where we could do some real good while driving a wedge between Democrats' voting base and their special-interest backers. A good starting point would be to kick-start efforts to do a vigorous school choice program in DC, where there are no federalism issues.
Neil Stevens: I'd start with tax reform. President Bush had his choice of tax reform and Social Security reform back in 2004. He chose poorly, as the knight said in Indiana Jones. We're over 20 years from the last tax simplification, and especially after the Clinton years emphasized the practice of tax breaks and penalties for narrow issues, we're overdue for a simplification. Even if we don't get a true flat tax, we need to streamline the tax code.
Judges are of course a perennial issue to consider. The Clinton and Bush years have seen a bunch of vacancies grow on the federal bench. Assuming John McCain wins, he would be well-served I think to try to fill every last one of them. He and Congressional Republicans should then be aggressive, and keep the pressure on the Democrats to justify obstruction. Though of course, under a Democratic President and Senate our options would be limited.
I also wish we'd take the offense against the Global Warming industry. We need to push back against bad science. Far too many of our Presidential contenders raised their hands when asked that question. The science just isn't there, and we need some Congressional leaders to highlight that fact. By contrast, this one gets tricker if we do win the White House, but I still think conservatives can fight this one.
We should also consider true educational reform. Vouchers have stalled. They're not getting anywhere. Let's consider tax breaks instead, to make private schools, home schooling, and even just supplemental educational materials at home more affordable. We can also take a good hard look at the union stranglehold on public schools, and try to break it by pushing further accountability.
Dan McLaughlin: I'd agree that anything done with vouchers needs to have an equivalent component to encourage/support homeschoolers.
The Huckabee campaign tapped into the popularity of tax simplification - it actually fits well with McCain's overarching reformist theme, since tax loopholes, like earmarks, are a perennial favor of rent-seeking lobbyists. Some of the proposals from Fred and Rudy in the primaries were good possible takes on setting up a simplified system as a parallel alternative that will eventually overtake the existing system.
Another area where we could use major legislative action, though I confess ignorance on the details, is telecom/internet/broadband policy. It's not much as a political issue but could really make a difference economically.
Adam C: Tax: McCain has suggested a BRAC style commission for tax simplification. Make it a single up-or-down vote so that each interest group can't veto a reform to their part. Also, McCain is pushing a cut in the corporate tax rate. Both should be popular and could be bipartisan in the first year of a McCain Administration. If Obama wins, conservatives will be in a defensive posture on tax issues.
Health Care: It's complicated, but Republicans need some plan. I think moving away from tying health care to employment is good and focusing on cost cutting fits more with Republican strengths. If for no other reason, Rs will need to have things to negotiate for in whatever D-Congress legislation makes it to the White House in the next two years.
Immigration: Border security that lowers illegal immigration crossing to a negligible amount. Follow that with a bipartisan bill that gives a path to legalization or guest worker status to those who are in the United States. This ends the de facto amnesty of the status quo and brings people within the legal sphere and out of the shadows.
Social Security: I don't think Rs should drop this. It's one of few areas where Rs are more popular among the young worker voting bloc. Personal retirement accounts are worth negotiating for. Regardless of who is President, if PRAs can be traded for lifting the cap on Social Security tax or some other tax hike, it might be worth getting the foot in the door.
Earmark/Corruption: Especially if McCain wins, corruption should be tackled head-on. Errant Rs should be confronted (See Sen. Stevens). The zeal of 1994 "change" was based on making government less corrupt and now Washington changed the Outsiders into Insiders. Ds had their chance these last two years to take on the Earmark Corruption, but they unsurprisingly didn't do anything about it. The grandstanded on the War instead. Rs have a second chance to show the public that we know government corrupts people and that's why we support smaller government.
California Yankee: First and foremost we must keep the federal government focused on staying on the offense in the effort to achieve victory in the War the Islamic Extremists are waging against us. I also agree that limiting federal spending and taxes are extremely important. I'm all in favor of school choice and fighting for judges that won't legislate. I believe Senator McCain is in agreement with us on these issues.
Another issue that we must pursue with equal vigor is controlling the border.
My goal would be a freedom agenda. Let's set an agenda that will begin to roll back the government's impairment of our freedom. Less taxation and less spending would be supportive steps in that effort. Reducing the federal governments roll in education would be a huge step toward more freedom. Encouraging school choice and diversity (and by diversity I mean a diversity of ideas not merely color or other physical attribute), will help. Limiting the government's ability to take private property in order to transfer it to another private entity would also help. We need to also oppose the concentration of power - both political and economic. We should encourage more self reliance at the local and state level, and not necessarily reliance on local and state government.
Perhaps we have the cart before the horse here. In order to consider specific issues should we not first try to agree on a common set of principles, such as the Sharon Statement?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: BRAC style commissions are good for both taxes and earmark reforms. Indeed, I remember proposing one for earmark reforms in an e-mail thread amongst Contributors last year . . . only to be told by Leon that Sam Brownback was already on the case. "Great minds" and all that. Tax reform is long overdue and the fact that countries in Eastern Europe are implementing flat tax reforms to great effect should certainly capture our attention. Our current "progressive" system is nothing of the kind and if we are able to implement a flat tax system that lowers rates while at the same time broadening the base, we will be practicing both good policy and good politics.
Judges are always crucial and any Republican President worthy of the name ought to be working to ensure a powerful originalist presence in the judicial branch.
Education reform is highly important. I can understand if initially, the federal government gets involved in order to implement school choice, but eventually, I want the federal government out so that states and localities can carry the effort further. Using DC as a laboratory is a very good idea.
Eminent domain reform is very much needed and another situation that can be a high vote getter for Republicans.
There is a great deal more, but this should do for starters. Of course, any Republican President worthy of the name should continue to fight for free trade and for the implementation of trade liberalization agreements. McCain has the best free trade record of all of the candidates currently in the race and it is to be hoped that he will use his standing to push for further trade liberalization.
Adam C:I should note that I didn't mention judges because I think they are a given and they are only possible with a Republican President. We don't really need a policy or anything, just a Republican President who does the appointing.
Dan McLaughlin: Adam - I'd love to see better health care policy options as well. Pejman - I think tax simplification can be done without necessarily lowering rates, and I wish that we could talk about the two as distinct concepts even though both are often lumped into the phrase "flat tax." I will count us very lucky on tax rates if we succeed in beating back any hikes.
On the border, obviously McCain has promised to take on enforcement first, but I also don't see why a guest worker program has to be linked to a path to legalization for existing illegal residents - the latter is much more controversial.
And I'd agree with the idea that anti-Kelo legislation could be very popular.
On Social Security and Medicare I have thought for a while that McCain might have better luck than Bush...but I'm fearful of what a bipartisan compromise bill might look like. If we can get long-term reforms with a real private-accounts component, I'd be willing to accept a less-than-perfect bill to get it.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: The flat tax would necessarily bring about lower rates since we would eliminate many--if not all--deductions in the name of simplicity. Assuming large savings in the compliance area, government could easily afford lower rates. To be sure, we will not see the dramatic lowering of rates that we have seen in Eastern Europe, but that is because taxes in those countries have so far to fall. Additionally, the Russian experience shows us that the rate can be set exceedingly low--13%, if memory serves--while at the same time getting more revenue because of an expansion of the tax base and because taxes are not yet so low as to negate Laffer benefits.
Thomas Crown: I have been too slammed of late to have enough mental energy to contribute anything meaningful to this, insofar as I ever would; I would simply make one, and only one, note:
Right now, a huge portion of the country pays no income taxes at the Federal level. None, zip, zero, zilch. It gets sucked from them on mandatory withholding (now, make that illegal, and you'd have one heckuva campaign issue), but they get it back after they file. That they have no taxes is because they can attach Schedule A, they get to take off for children in two bites at the apple, and so on; and they get to exempt student loan interest and any losses they take from businesses they start. I know this, because every year when I do my taxes, I cackle every time I find another way to deny those bloodsuckers any of my money, in those years that I can do so. I never lie, I never cheat, I do read the CB and the IRB and the Tax Court rulings, and I take every penny back from them that I can.
A flat, or simplified, tax, may be a very good idea at a policy level. I confess to not being one hundred percent sure about this -- I like the idea of encouraging home ownership and having children, but this is in at least part because I do both things, and I think societies crash when people do not -- but whether it's a good policy doesn't mean it's better politics.
Republicans have lost our brand on keeping government under control. How well would it work if we lost our brand on cutting taxes?
Oh, no, you say. We'll be lowering taxes overall. Tell that to the folks who will be told, correctly, that they're now going to be paying taxes, where before they were not. Seriously: Exactly how hard do you think it'll be to turn this into a winning policy attack?
Next question: How, precisely, do we keep that rate at 10 or 15%? With no deductions or exemptions, there is no shield to Congress screwing with tax rates. And no Republicans in any significant number in Congress will go to war over the difference between 15 and 16%. Anyone who thinks differently can point to how easily President Bush got his tax cuts made permanent years ago.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Good points. My response is as follows: Democrats have run successfully for decades on having established Social Security. We can do the same thing with taxes and we will have more of a policy reason to do so. Additionally, even if we do not have a flat tax, we can have a flatter one to take into account the working poor and the like. The point is that tax simplification can lead to overall lower taxes--yes, it is important--a broadening of the tax base, greater revenue generation and a winning political issue. It may not work perfectly. But it will work exceedingly well on both the policy and electoral levels.
Thomas Crown: Pejman, I must be missing something, because I not only think you're smarter than I, but significantly smarter, and what you're saying seems to be an Underpants Gnomes argument. First, we raise people's tax bills, then something happens, then we win! The working poor are not the only ones running free and clear from Federal income taxes. Indeed, a significant portion of the people who are effectively tax-free reaches deep into the middle class; and even those who end up owing money, owe considerably less than 10% of their income when it's all said and done. Just looking over the 2006 and 2007 tax tables, assuming really bare-bones deductions and exemptions, and I'm seeing an income bracket that is devastatingly close to $100K, aside from the AMT, that doesn't pay 15% of its income in taxes.
Tell me how we don't get plastered on this.
Dan McLaughlin: This is the elegance of the alternative-tax solution that Fred and others have suggested: you basically strip the tax code to its barest bones and offer that as an option. If it proves to be hugely popular, you can revisit later whether to make it mandatory, but in the interim you have saved a lot of people a lot of work. And you can try to sunset the existing code in other ways over time.
Thomas Crown: I could get behind that.
Adam C: Optional Flat Tax. Good stuff. Heck it could be an alternative minimum tax... except it would actually be an alternative and you would pay the minimum.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: As could I. The plan would not carry the immediacy I crave but if it is implemented, it would represent a significant policy victory.
I would mention that this debate is beginning--in some respects--to resemble the "Reagan raised taxes by a record amount when he was President!" claims; claims which overlook the fact that overall, Reagan cut taxes considerably. After all, at the end of Reagan's term, the top rate was not even remotely close to the 70% mark it was at when Reagan took office.
Thomas Crown: Let me be clear: I am not arguing the truth of your claim. I accept it as simple, unvarnished truth.
But two points:
(1) My parents voted Perot in 1992. Yes, I told them not to, and yes, they understood they were not making a pro-life vote (though they thought Bush was a fairly crappy pro-life President, so they considered this a wash). They did this because of "No new taxes." That stung them because they were middle class voters who had lost deductions for things like credit card debt in the 1986 reform -- "closed loopholes" carried the same stigma in my household whether applied to taxes or gun shows -- and who were convinced that Republicans were backing away from cutting taxes. Whatever Reagan's great legacy on overall tax rates, there is no way around what the 1986 reform did.
(2) That segues into my second point: Americans generally have no problem with Tax cuts for the rich! as long as it's also Tax cuts for the poor and middle class too! Why do you think the Democrats have been so horrible at winning any points on this? It's because (he answered) no one cares that the rich are paying less (or are perceived to pay less) so long as he is, too. If the logic of tax reform that flattens the curve and reduces deductions is We're taxing the rich less, you're paying more, but don't worry, overall taxation is down! we're going to get what Teddy Kennedy gets when he's been a naughty, naughty boy, and needs to be taught a lesson by Mistress Pain. And we'll deserve it.
Without the horrifying mental image.
Adam C: I agree with Thomas overall. One way to address this would be to make the flat tax rate only cover income after your first $50,000 in income (or some other threshold). That is how the Fair Tax deals with the problem. Technically, it would no longer be flat (you'd have a 0% bracket and a 20% (or whatever) bracket). But it would have a substantially similar resemblance to our system to lower income earners.
Dan McLaughlin: This feeds into a larger point: not just on taxes but education, health care, retirement savings, we need to find ways to let people voluntarily opt in to better, freer systems. Be the real "pro-choice" party. It can be much easier to sell such systems if we propose them as stand-alone legislation rather than as part of a "comprehensive" fix where we get tied down in sniping about revenue assumptions and (invariably inaccurate) financial forecasts and taking away somebody's pony. Make the Democrats explain why they need to mandate that you pay into a big government system, and send your kids to big government schools, and live by big government rules, just so the system will be financially able to support somebody else. The more areas in which we can propose such voluntary alternatives the better.
Adam C: Exactly Dan. Personal retirement account were an optional reform. School choice is an option. A true AMT would be an option. Give people choice and see what they prefer.
Brad Smith: Judging by the reception that personal retirement accounts and school choice have received at the polls, it is pretty clear that they prefer the alternative. The benefits of freedom are not immediately apparent to most people, and somewhere along the line we quit explaining or describing those benefits.
Adam C: Brad,
I wrote about those polls a lot during the reform effort. If you ask someone if they prefer "current guaranteed benefits" or "higher return but not guaranteed benefits" you are correct. Of course, the problem is that the characterization of the current system is flawed. The current benefits are not guaranteed, you do not have a legal right to them, and if you are my age you will most likely not get what they are promising. I repeatedly hoped for a poll that asked about "current promised benefits" or "higher return, legally owned but not guaranteed benefits." Alas, the media didn't care if they were accurate in their question. And nonetheless, young people still supported PRAs. I presume because most of us know that whether they say "guaranteed" or not we are not seeing those benefits.
Social Security Reform failed because Ds were dead set on not letting Rs or President Bush have a success. Many had voiced support in the past. It was reasonable to think a bipartisan bill could pass. That's why I'm hoping a future D Congress and R President or vice versa will get there, perhaps as part of a negotiated bill. Rs should hold firm that any reform include a PRA option. If for no other reason, it's an unchangeable reform. Once it happens, you can't go back (like school choice).
Brad Smith: I'm talking about the polls where people vote and elect politicians, not Gallup, Rasmussen etc. The fact is, school choice and private savings account appear to be net vote losers.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: All the more reason to continue to make the argument for them. I'm not accusing you of this, Brad, but too many people look at one electoral failure or another and decide that is an excuse to stop agitating for good policies that have good selling points--in this case, a freedom agenda.
Brad Smith: I completely agree, and that is why I have emphasized (to some scorn on this site) that Republicans need to get back to thinking more about the theory of limited government, and selling it on first principles. Remember, the original post to which I was responding suggested that if we just gave people a choice on school choice or private savings account, they would prefer freedom. I don't think that in the current climate there is much evidence for that - indeed, I think we see the opposite. If one thinks these are tickets to winning the 2008 election, they are very wrong. (Note that if America truly lived under the tyrannical Bushhitler regime, it would choose freedom. But we have a great deal of freedom in this country, and there's not much evidence that, at the margin, people are looking for more.
So here is the basic problem facing Republicans right now - they can either be a big government party, as say, David Brooks would prefer, or they can be a small government party, as say, George Will would prefer. In my view, big government is over time inherently destructive of conservative values and societal traditions, so I would see Brooks' course as self-defeating, even if I agreed with his micro agenda (more government involvement in preschool, return of the draft, etc.), which I don't. But right now there does not seem to be a majority for shrinking government. The idea that the GOP could get abolition of the Departments of Energy and Education into a platform, as was the case in 1980, let alone act on it if elected, is laughable.
A problem with the McCain candidacy, with which we are stuck, is that there is no agenda of any meaning. McCain has never had much interest in a theory of government, instead basing his political career on values - important values to be sure, such as faith, honor and duty - but not a core view of the role of government. At some point in the late 90s some folks convinced him that he needed an ideology and came up with Teddy Roosevelt, so McCain invokes him, but Roosevelt was not a man of limited government, that we know for sure. McCain's values based view of politics is one reason why McCain is so personally nasty and explosive with those who disagree with him - to McCain, it is all personal, not about disagreements or means to a shared goal.
McCain will probably appoint better judges than his Democratic opponent, but that is not an agenda, and where the courts are concerned, Republicans are increasingly turning to the courts to strike down the other side's winning agenda rather than to preserve its own legislative victories (this is what liberals did in the 1970s and 1980s). It is important for courts to be prepared to strike down unconstitutional acts - I am something of a judicial activist, in fact - but if you are relying on the courts to implement your agenda, you've got a fundamental problem. McCain will support the surge, but as others have noted, that is a tactic, not a strategy, and McCain has said little else on foreign policy, in the middle east or elsewhere. McCain will oppose pork, but that is more symbolism than serious government cutting. I am not saying that any of these things are bad, merely that they do not an agenda make. And because McCain has little interest in core governing philosophy, he is susceptible to various whims of the day, be they massive taxes to fight global warming, or campaign finance reform, or opposing the Bush tax cuts, or working overtime to curtail "ultimate fighting," (another failed McCain legislative initiative). If somehow McCain is elected, there will be almost no energy available for the GOP to actively pursue an agenda of limited government and lower taxes, because the people who most have McCain's ear are big government conservatives. Additionally, conservatives will be left to defend McCain's policies, which will for the most part be better than proposed Democratic alternatives, but will not be truly limited government policies. Perhaps the best we could hope for realistically would be tax reform and maybe, maybe if we are lucky and really push the issue, entitlement reform.
If McCain loses, Republicans will have greater freedom to reintroduce a meaningful agenda. But the agenda should be big. Tax cuts have lost much of their bite because, even after Clinton, the top marginal rate is about half what it was under Carter, and is now indexed for inflation. Moreover, a huge percentage of the population now pays no income tax. We supply siders have been proven right - you can raise lots of money for government programs with low tax rates. This is certainly better than raising lots of money with high tax rates, but it doesn't shrink government, as we have seen. Conservative energy, then, has to focus on the size of government. Back in the 70s, conservatives methodically reviewed government programs for reduction (see e.g. Don Lambro's "Fat City" or the Heritage Foundation's 1980 proposed agenda for the incoming Reagan administration). In opposition, we could be free to support a major effort of the kind Pejman suggests on entitlement reform. We should avoid any base-closing type commission on entitlement reform, because in the current climate such a commission would yield a big government, rather than a small government, plan.
Mike Huckabee showed how you can still score political points by calling for the abolition of the IRS, even if the "Fair Tax" is a sham. But the Fair Tax is a sham precisely because it does not reduce the size of government or the tax bill at all, or even reduce the government enforcement apparatus. It is, truly, rearranging the deck chairs. If, however, government spending in constant dollars were back at the level it was at just ten years ago, we could cut taxes by $700 billion and have no effect on the deficit. We could almost abolish all social security taxes and have no effect on the deficit. We could make the transition to private savings accounts effortlessly (of course, the effort would be to cut spending). How hard is it to convince people that the 1998 federal budget, adjusted for inflation, is a reasonable budget target? Make that macro case. Here's the bargain: if you can live with the 1998 Clinton budget, adjusted for inflation, we will cut your social security taxes by two-thirds.
The point here is that if, as looks likely, Republicans lose in November, we need to offer big, meaningful alternatives, and we need to get back to explaining why limited government is relevant to people's lives and a good thing for them.
Jeff Emanuel: Dan and Adam, I agree with the idea that we need to focus very strongly on health care policy in the next few years. Health care as an issue will, of course, become more important as time goes on. The "50 million uninsured" (the number is growing all the time, according to the media and the Left) mantra has become part of every Democrat politician's standard rhetoric, and the members of the Left side of the aisle and their media spokespersons are treating so-called "universal health coverage" as though it is (a) the correct solution, (b) a foregone conclusion, and (c) simply a matter of timing an detail at this point. Polling shows that a significant number of Americans view this situation as being an issue that is important enough to be further intervened in and regulated by government, which means that Republicans must come up with some response to the Left on this, not just sit idly by and let them own this issue.
With public opinion being as strong as it is on the side of greater government involvement in heath care -- and with media outlets like CNN helping that along by finding "lifelong Republicans" who claim they are now going to vote Democrat because only the Ds will offer "universal coverage" and by demanding that all positions except favoring state health care be vigorously defended -- the GOP will have to move leftward a bit from a strictly-free-market position on health care, but can still occupy a niche far to the right (i.e., far more pro-choice) than the Democrats.
As with many issues, health care and health coverage (two entirely separate concepts which have been blurred together in the public and political consciousness) are emotional topics; therefore, they are more easily capitalized on by the sloganeering, appeal-to-heart-not-mind Left than by the Right, who -- given the fact that our positions and prescriptions are based on reality -- is stuck doing a great deal of explaining of their ideas, complete with the numbers and formulae that show why they will actually work. That being said, if we can get in front of the press and the American people for -- not in, but for -- the next three years and explain our health care policy and why it will work better than the state-run program proposed by the Democrats, we can make some real progress in educating the American people and in taking back an issue that should -- by all practical rights -- be ours.
To do this, we need to come up with a unified and workable market-based health care platform, which acknowledges heath care and health coverage as a necessity, but which maximizes consumer choice and provider competition. The GOP needs to vocally embrace options and solutions like: encouraging voluntary high-deductible, low-premium coverage options like Health Savings Accounts; allowing health insurance competition to take place across state lines; continuing to advocate for Tort reform; restricting Medicare, Medicaid, and SCHIP to actually needy individuals; eliminating ridiculous mandatory coverages (like birthmark removal and chiropractics that some states require of insurance policies sold within their borders); and providing tax breaks for individuals and businesses who purchase health coverage.
At the same time, we need to make sure that the problems with state-run health care systems around the world are presented to the American people. For example, in Britain in 2004, low-quality, taxpayer-funded health care killed more than 17,000 citizens, and the country had a 29% higher amenable mortality rate than Denmark, Germany, Spain, and France, all of which have health care systems that are less dominated by government. Further, medical professionals are running away from the country's National Health System at a record rate. In a case of "when the rats start abandoning ship, it's a good time to look at hopping off yourself," thousands of practitioners have taken out private health insurance policies instead of sticking with the national system that they work in.
Heck, Britain's NHS is in such dire straits financially that physicians' groups are now saying that, if the program is to remain solvent enough to keep running at all, they must start refusing medical treatment to the elderly and to those with chronic diseases or addictions -- something that negates the whole argument for state-run health care: namely, that everybody will be able to be treated.
It doesn't help that, with the health system being under the thumb of the government, care is sacrificed for the sake of boastworthy statistics that ignore the cost of their achievement -- like the fact that, in order to fulfill the Labour promise of "every patient being seen within 4 hours of entering the hospital," thousands of seriously ill patients a year are being kept in ambulances outside hospital emergency rooms for hours, because administrators will not let them in until they can treat them within four hours.
Another example is Russia. By law, every Russian citizen is "entitled to free health care." What this has wrought – despite Pres. Vladimir Putin's doubling of state health care spending during his term – is a system that is astronomically expensive, rampant with corruption, and dependent on massive bribes to get any manner of "quality" care whatsoever.
Those foreign examples really aren't even necessary, though; for a glimpse at what Democrats would lead us into with state run health care, we need look no further than this example of government health care here at home: Building 18 at Walter Reed.
Health care is an issue that we can -- and must -- lead on, but it will take a concerted and collaborative (but uncompromising) effort...not to mention better PR skills than the GOP has been known for. There are solutions available that are much more market-based than what has been offered to date by government; the Republican party needs to begin touting those as frequently and as loudly as possible. Though an individual mandate is neither enforceable nor advisable, the fact is, we require that every driver in the country be insured -- and, while millions of people will get through their lives without ever having needed that insurance, 100% of people will, at some time in their lives, need medical treatment or care. This means that health coverage must be accessible to those who can afford it, and who desire it (as a great deal of the "50 million uninsured" are that way because of personal choice). Advocating the aforementioned market-based reforms like HSAs, interstate competition, and tax credits will help make that coverage more accessible -- and the advocating of increased choicemay help persuade the American people (those who care enough to think for themselves, that is) that the GOP's platform on this issue is the one which benefits them the most.
Mark I: I think a general reform program for Washington D.C. would be in order. Congressional term limits would be a good one. If ever the country was in the mood for cleaning out the entire Congress, now is the time. Standing for a return to civilian legislators as opposed to career politicians would do the help re-make the Republican brand as the party of reform and good governance. While we're at Constitutional amendments, I love to get a Federal TABOR amendment and perhaps a reduction in Senate terms to 4 years, keeping the class system.
On domestic issues, education is always a good one. But I concur with others that tax and entitlement reform is the way to go. The complicated tax system is losing justifications by the day. There simply is no reason why a tax filing has to be made at all. The IRS gets all your information anyway. Reduce the rates, end withholding, and let the government send every taxpayer a bill for 10% of their reported income. That would be the surest way to guard against future tax increases.
I also am partial to Newt Gingrich's ideas in his Platform of the American people. It is the result of surveys of hundreds of thousands of people who participated in the Solutions Day workshops last year. He has identified issues that get overwhelming majority support of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. One is English as the official language. It gets something like 87% support in all three categories.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Please, let's not push term limits. As a general matter, people should be free to vote for whomever they want. Additionally, let us remember that if our favorite politicians are term limited, they will be outlasted by bureaucrats who likely will be of the other party, or share the other party's leanings.
Thomas Crown: Exactly. God save us from another round of Federal term limits. We get the legislators we deserve.
Neil Stevens: Bad legislators are a dime a dozen. The good ones we need to take hold of and not let go.
I only propose we fight people trying to set national policy using cargo cult science. When it comes to schools, I favor local control, and have no quarrel with a local district's parents setting a curriculum for their kids.
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The majority or minority teaching that which is apposed by the majority of the people. Now you can understandably call it junk science, but what if the majority of scientists are unsure or at least refuse to follow the accepted "proof".
Are you really sure that you want to continue following the accepted science? Some things are still NOT proven, and NOT acceptable even within the Science groups. Cult science is an easily disproved problem... It is that which is questionable that causes problems...
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
...local policy, including the teaching of our children, using cargo cult science is OK?
Where do we draw that line, exactly? Where do we stand on junk science at the statewide level?
Why not the simpler stand? Why not favor the use of real science in making public policy at all levels, and opposing junk science at all levels? Wouldn't that be better?
Gar
Let's ban all untestable theories from public schools. Starting with macroevolution and AGW.
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"Macroevolution" is as testable and proven as is Relativity or Quantum theory. Also, there is no scientific difference between so-called "macro" and "micro" evolution (ex. there is no genetic regulator that prohibits a given species from accruing enough adaptions over time to become a it a new, separate species.)
"Austere, intolerant, well-armed, and blood-thirsty, in their own regions the Wahhabis are a distinct factor which must be taken into account" - Winston Churchill, 1921
and I'll believe you. Until you can whip up one of those in a lab, it's all unprovable theory. The results of relativity and quantum theory are observable and measurable (nuclear reactions, particle accelerators, etc.). One cannot observe anything but adaptation of species within kind (ie. microevolution). No one has observed macroevolution. No one.
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“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
Well I can't create a blackhole, or extreme time dilation, or any number of other phenomena associated with Relativity and Quantum theory in a lab. Neither can I see a continent split along a plate boundary and drift apart, or watch a plateau be lifted and weathered into towering mountain chain. So what? Science uses logic, based on observation and experimentation, to determine the laws of nature.
So if you really want to use the "created in a lab" and "observable within one lifetime" as your guiding principles, be prepared to make significant reductions in scientific education across all fields. If you're willing to make that stand, then please be honest and do not limit your argument to evolution. Otherwise, you come across as a hypocrite.
"Austere, intolerant, well-armed, and blood-thirsty, in their own regions the Wahhabis are a distinct factor which must be taken into account" - Winston Churchill, 1921
Apart from the fact that no scientist really knows what exactly is going on in a "black hole" and will not until a testable theory of quantum gravity is articulated, we can and do directly observe black holes by their effects on surroundings (i.e. sucking in mass from nearby stars).
Similarly, there are things that we know about how tectonic plates move and how mountains are formed. But there are things that we *don't* know as well, and those things are what need to be empirically demonstrated and tested: that's what science is. Science is not pretending that we know more than we do on the basis of faith in future discoveries.
We can similarly THEORIZE about things all we want, but until theories are empirically tested and evidence given, they aren't scientific fact. Which is why macroevolution is not a Law. It's still the Theory of Evolution, as opposed to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, etc.
I'm not sure what "significant reductions" in scientific education you believe are necessary for us to embrace in order to prove our innocence of hypocrisy, but judging from your tendency to confuse actual hard science with fun speculations of what could have been or could be apart from empirical data, I'm not so sure we would have to agree with you.
So you want to teach only the "laws" of nature? Then out goes gravity, magnetism, thermodynamics, et al. since we do not know if these "laws" work at the quantum level or are just a manifestation of something else. Since science is mostly comprised of theory, most of science need not be taught. Of course you know that "evolution" has also been empirically tested and there is (literally) mountains evidence from geology, biology, chemisty, archeaology, etc. - and that scientists publish these findings in peer-reviewed journals, like:
Evolution
Genetics Selection Evolution
Infection, Genetics and Evolution
Israel Journal of Ecology & Evolution
Journal of Human Evolution
Journal of Mammalian Evolution
Journal of Molecular Evolution
Molecular Biology and Evolution
"Austere, intolerant, well-armed, and blood-thirsty, in their own regions the Wahhabis are a distinct factor which must be taken into account" - Winston Churchill, 1921
...haven't evolved a sufficient state of awareness to use a simple Reply-to-This link to reply to a comment.
Good thing natural selection has largely been prevented by other humans these days.
Evolutionary Hymn
Lead us, Evolution, lead us
Up the future's endless stair;
Chop us, change us, prod us, weed us.
For stagnation is despair:
Groping, guessing, yet progressing,
Lead us nobody knows where.Wrong or justice, joy or sorrow,
In the present what are they
while there's always jam tomorrow,
While we tread the onward way?
Never knowing where we're going,
We can never go astray.To whatever variation
Our posterity may turn
Hairy, squashy, or crustacean,
Bulbous-eyed or square of stern,
Tusked or toothless, mild or ruthless,
Towards that unknown god we yearn.Ask not if it's god or devil,
Brethren, lest your words imply
Static norms of good and evil
(As in Plato) throned on high;
Such scholastic, inelastic,
Abstract yardsticks we deny.Far too long have sages vainly
Glossed great Nature's simple text;
He who runs can read it plainly,
'Goodness = what comes next.'
By evolving, Life is solving
All the questions we perplexed.Oh then! Value means survival-
Value. If our progeny
Spreads and spawns and licks each rival,
That will prove its deity
(Far from pleasant, by our present,
Standards, though it may well be).C S Lewis
soli Deo gloria
...you would throw evolutionary biology into the junk science bin, too? And a large swath of geology, while you're at it?
Really?
To be clear: I support and defend anyone's right to believe what they want regarding the origins of the universe and the earth. But some of those belief systems, I believe, ought not be characterized as "science".
I'm a big fan of science. I like that jet airplanes fly, skyscrapers stand tall, we have cured diseases, and we understand the nature of the universe better than our ancestors did. (Not perfectly, mind you, but better.) Those things, and many, many others, are all gifts to us from science.
I would very much like the GOP to oppose Bad Science. (You and I might disagree about what that means, but that is a discussion for another day.) But I don't think we can oppose Bad Science and simultaneously pander to those who claim that dinosaurs roamed the earth contemporaneously with humans and that carbon dating is a hoax.
That is a bridge too far for me.
Gar
about someone that cannot grasp the concept of "Reply To This".
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Because people can see it happening, make adjustments in the lab/out on the road, and improve it.
What I don't see is how your simplistic grasp of "science" and even "Bad Science" (do you even know what Popperian falsifiability is? No cheating now...) is very productive or convincing.
I would like very much for the GOP to accurately understand what science is and what it isn't. I would also like the GOP to understand the limits of the governmental sphere of authority and to wisely consider any application of governmental power to the institutions of science.
Other than stay on the offensive in Iraq and the GWOT (which I know McCain will do), I would like something done on healthcare right away to move away from some sort of government run system. I think something very simple like enacting tax credits for individuals and/or making insurance deductible for individuals, plus deregulating the insurance industry would go a long way in lowering healthcare costs for people without government intervention. Meaningful tort reform would also be nice, but that could prove more difficult.
My second priority is making the tax cuts permanent and reforming/simplifying the tax code.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
The core problem is that medical care getting harder to afford. The cause of that problem is that we're already pumping massive subsidies into the industry. It and higher education are getting far too much taxpayer money as it is, leading to prices spiraling up.
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Not "gonna die soon" up there but "gonna want help with their medical bills and perscriptions which they are going to start needing in earnest now that they're retired" up there.
I kinda take it as a given that we'll have universal health care in the next decade.
Too many people have degrees in !math.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
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You can plan for and work around that.
Remember that quote? Something about the baker and the butcher? It's totally appropriate here.
Now, stupid... well. You can't really plan for or work around stupid.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
If we're assuming stupid, selfish old people, 100% socialized medicine isn't a given. They already have Medicare, and a newly-expanded Medicare at that.
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And Medicare won't be enough.
There's always one more test, one more treatment, one more perscription, one more therapy...
And if you want them to pay for it out of their own pocket, then you're evil. Don't you *UNDERSTAND* that they will *DIE* without one more test, one more treatment, one more perscription, one more therapy?
What about The Children? Do you want The Children to grow up without The Grandparents? What happened to Family Values?
And so on and so forth. They're the largest voting bloc in the country and they've succeeded in getting people to think "Positive Rights" when people say "Rights" instead of getting people to think "Liberty" when people say "Rights". I think it's inevitable.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
You know, the same guy who pays for everything.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
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Eventually there just isn't enough cash. Medicare and Social Security are already bankrupting us....universal healthcare now?!?!? Lets add several hundred billion/year to the social welfare spending ledger.
People just flat out won't accept paying 70% tax rates to support a massive welfare state. At those rates, the economy will crash anyway and revenues will decline precipitously. There just isn't enough money for that stuff.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
As more and more government money goes into health care, it's less and less competitive, therefore more and more broken-- creating more of a call for the government to fix it.
The Democrats have an unsustainable healthcare model that's easy to understand - freebies for all!
We have a superior free market healthcare model that's difficult to understand. The messaging needs to be simplified so everyone can immediately understand and appreciate the personal benefits of choice.
Our best plan of attack may be to repeatedly question why the government should be trusted with running an enormously expensive and complex healthcare system when they can't even solve our existing entitlement albatross - Social Security. Like healthcare, the only realistic and sustainable solutions are being offered by privatization.
--
"We want great men who, when fortune frowns, will not be discouraged." - Colonel Henry Knox
To my pro-universal health care friends.
They always say "this time, it'll be different".
Though I consider myself Libertarian, I am Conservative insofar as "this time, it'll be different" is a phrase that always cracks me up before I wipe away a tear and call the speaker stupid, stupid, stupid.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
The GOP has rarely been good with communications. The best investment the Republican party can make right now is to bring in some very savvy and seasoned communications people.
That being said, yes, the GOP has a superior plan when it comes to healthcare, but they need an effective way to simplify and communicate the position, and to "market" it to the electorate.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Mike "Gamecock" DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
I'm just the lowly transcript writer this time around :-)
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Frankly, I'm with Dan in his first thought - I don't think that we can hope for much more than trying to make sure the war is fought properly and getting decent judges (probably not Brown or Pryor, though, I'm guessing). Optimism isn't always my strong suit, but the above is still way more than enough reason to support McCain.
On the other hand, that doesn't mean that we don't need to have a meaningful platform to work with, whatever may come. I like the idea of just streamlining the tax code. A flat tax would be a great improvement, but a much simpler code is a good first step. School choice is possible and worth fighting for, but is better as a stepping stone to eliminate federal control entirely. Fighting the NEA would be difficult, but well worth doing.
The only thing discussed that scared me was some of the health care suggestions. I understand that compromise is necessary sometimes, but I would rather try to educate than compromise if possible. Maybe it isn't possible.
To remark on something of Dan's that I missed to say the first time around:
I don't really think there's a lot new we can do that's positive for technological matters. We need to fight 'net neutrality,' we could reform the patent system, and we could reverse some of the anti-innovation aspects of the DMCA.
It's never truer than in this area that "Government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem."
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I was busy creating economic value today. :-)
I fear that the current mood of the country may share some uncomfortable similarities with that of the early Thirties. There are several burning economic issues which, through a combination of reality and demagogy, have a lot of people feeling that a radical change of direction is needed.
Among these are the collapse in housing values seen in many parts of the country; food and fuel price inflation; the perception of health-insurance crisis; a sense of growing income inequality; an inexplicable conviction that our jobs are all fleeing to Asia.
(I shouldn't need to point out that there are real economic challenges that are much more fundamental and urgent, but much less newsworthy, and therefore not all that likely to be addressed by policymakers.)
What I don't want to see repeated is the mood of the 1932 election, in which the people felt that something, anything had to be done. And contrary to history up to that point, they decided to trust the Federal government more than private institutions to do it.
The worst-case political outcome this year is the election of a Democratic President with a broad mandate to Federalize huge chunks of an already largely-Federalized economy. The second-worst would be the election of John McCain facing similar pressure.
As far as I can see, the only place where conservative economic-policy alternatives are being seriously discussed, is right here at RedState. It's not shaping up to be a year to discuss truly beneficial changes like reducing the commitment to Social Security and Medicare (without which any change in the structure of Federal taxation will be of only marginal use).
The next few years will be so challenging economically that the best we can hope for from a McCain administration would be to do no harm. We need to make the case that private enterprise and free markets will do much more than government to prevent a very serious decline in living standards in the US.
And this will be a tough case to make, rather like trying to convince people in the Fifties that the Soviet Union really did need to be contained. Because to many people, it will seem as though the logic is all on the other side.
... if he really sticks with reducing government spending. That could be a big step in the right direction.
Mike Huckabee showed how you can still score political points by calling for the abolition of the IRS, even if the "Fair Tax" is a sham. But the Fair Tax is a sham precisely because it does not reduce the size of government or the tax bill at all, or even reduce the government enforcement apparatus. It is, truly, rearranging the deck chairs.
This is a cheap shot. It's not the FairTax's mission to reduce the size of government; it's the FairTax's mission to rehabilitate our government's entire tax-collecting system and reduce the massive amount of dollars flushed down the drain collecting taxes. This alone is a big enough job all by itself; we already have plenty enough people (even just here on Redstate) saying we'll never pass the FairTax just as it is-- trying to extend it further to use it as a tool to shrink the government turns a Herculean task into a truly impossible one.
If pumping a couple hundred billion dollars back into the economy every year and bringing back all that money that has fled to tax havens on foreign shores is 'rearranging the deck chairs', then we could stand with a lot more furniture movement.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
I think school choice is a great winner to run on. It doesn't cost us any more money, and I think we can sc ore with the parent vote. Also, I believe one or more of McCain's children went to charter schools. The LA Times recently wrote an editorial proposing that the Los Angeles Unified School District go to all charter schools for the middle and high school levels. We should take them up on the offer.
We need to make some sort of progress on health care. The baby boomer generation threatens to bankrupt us on this, and no one is worse than the millenials. In Holland recently, they went from a combination of single payer and private, to all private. The reason for this was simple math: Growth of healthcare costs was increasing at a rate that was over 2% higher than growth rate of GDP. They created a system that mandates that all purchase private insurance in order to recieve health care, that insurance companies need to take anyone who signs up (no decline based on preconditions), that insurance companies can offer discounts to those who have healthy life styles (not obese, do not smoke, etc), and allow tax breaks for insurance companies based on how many people they accept who have medical preconditions. Now Holland has a very homgeneous society, and sometimes it is easier to effect change in that type of environment than it is in a diverse environment. Also, we need to encourage more private market involvement, such as Wal-Mart and their $4.00 per month prescription program for generics.
We need to simplyfy the tax code. We are getting too progressive with this, with too many shelters, and in real terms, the middle class ends up paying the greatest percentage of net income, while the Democrats lie to themselves with the idea that they are soaking the rich. We also have to get past this class warfare, and come to a collective assumption that we are all in this together.
In regards to Global Warming, the majority of people link this together with pollution and our general impact on the earth as a society. When we make a blanket assertion that, "the science of Global Warming is false", the rest of the country hears "we are not polluting, and we have a negligible effect on the environment". I grew in a family of outdoorspeople, and whenever we went camping, my parents stressed that we were to leave the forest better than we found it, partly because they enjoyed and respected it, and partly out of common courtesy for the people who would follow us at the campsite. Perhaps the current increase in fuel will be a situation of the market taking care of itself. I find it ironic, however, that the political figure whose house has the smallest carbon footprint is the current president. Perhaps we should hold him up as an example?
One idea that Obama has brought up (but went away pretty quick, probably due to the climate of Democratic Party primaries) is the idea of increasing the savings rate. The key factor in the economic troubles of today is that too many people wanted to buy what they couldn't afford, and when the bill came due, they could only walk away. Any ideas on how to increase the savings rate (some new type of IRA?)
Judges and the key social issue - abortion (and a big focus on early term and partial birth abortions). Didn't we get a natural push on this from "Juno"?
Retirement - We have got to have some sort of accommodation on Social Security. We can not have the expenses that we expect from the baby boomer generation, without some sort of offset or savings.
Because this is the domestic thread, all I will say about the GWOT is that I prefer that it be fought in the Mid-East as opposed to here.
People respond with remarkable rationality to the financial incentives they see before them. We're in a period of exceptionally low credit formation, and if we're unlucky, it may last for a very long time. At times like this, leverage is more expensive than it's worth, and the saving rate will naturally tick upward. (Especially a couple of years or so from now, after the Fed's low policy rates finish re-liquefying the banking system.)
But be careful what you wish for. The flip-side of a credit-constrained environment is that there aren't any good places to invest. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Japanese have a prodigious rate of personal savings, and the worst-performing large economy in the world.
spending in our economy has been irrational (irrational exuberance?), and motivated more by greed, envy, and desire.
Singapore has both a high savings rate, and strong economic growth, as does Korea, so they are not mutually exclusive. Japan's problem is that they were irrational in their real estate bubble, and there was a little bit of loss of institutional confidence. While they avoided a real "run" on financial institutions. they had a "run" on the confidence of those institutions. This is why, even with prime rates as low as they are over there, they can't get it going. Also, they try to hard to engineer success at high levels. They spent most of the late eighties trying to figure out how to dominate computer and memory manufacturing, the result being that the Chinese and Koreans have beaten them. The ironic thing is that they completely missed the internet, and digital content - they spent hundreds of millions on songbooks and movie catalogs, and missed video games, facebook, google, and even OS's. Look at the hundreds of millions spent by Toshiba on HD-DVD, vs the success of the iPod and iPhone.
Such is the folly of centralized planning, and the power of individual inspiration.
Interesting that you picked up on the one item that Obama has mentioned. What did you think of the other points?
...because you asked a direct question about it.
I'm really not sure what your perspective on consumer spending is. From where I sit, it's declining rather sharply at this time. Greed, envy and desire never go out of style, but occasionally they get overtaken by fear.
As far as savings rates in Japan, your statement about their banks (no "run," but a run of confidence) leads me to question whether you were paying attention back in the early Nineties. Japan's banking system lost a high fraction of its equity value and most of its capital, and nearly collapsed.
Japanese individuals lend much of their money not to banks, but directly to the government, in the form of deposits at the post office. They don't usually have "bank runs" in Japan.
Japan is a country that has so much extra money that they lend it at negligible rates around the world, to people who use it to buy short-term debt denominated in high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar. If that's not a sign of an economy that generates no organic growth, I don't know what is.
The ironic thing, in the context of your comment, is that Singapore, which does have a vibrant domestic economy, itself has had to create one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. They also have too much money and not enough economy.
The financial history of the first decade of the 21st century has yet to be written, but it will be a historic decade, without question. But because we don't have the history written yet, we don't know the full extent of what has changed fundamentally and what hasn't.
I've generally tended to think that the "natural" rate of personal savings in the US has not changed from what it's historically been (it was about 8% in 2000, closer to 20% twenty years ago). Note that the diminution of the personal savings rate over the last eight years has coincided with the increase in housing values. It's not that people haven't been saving, it's that their savings have taken a different form.
And now that the bubble has burst, balance sheets have to be rebuilt all over the economy, not least by individuals. That's why I believe personal savings rates will tick up.
But that doesn't necessarily mean that increased savings levels will lead to increased business and credit formation in the US! That's what motivated my admittedly ominous comparison to Japan.
One month ago, I discerned what I thought were signs that the global credit crisis was beginning to unfreeze. Now I'm considerably less sure. The outlook now is every bit as uncertain as it was at the beginning of 2008.
Where does young Barry Obama fit into all this? Darned if I know. It would surprise me immensely if he knows himself.
no discussion of which is complete without the fact of a dramatically aging population. The high savings rate is a chicken-and-egg thing.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Getting back to my original point on savings rates, our current economic difficulties were created by bubble spending, and a negative savings rate (people bought what they did not have the resources to pay for). If there had been positive savings by consumers, the downturn in key sectors (housing, credit card debt, etc) would not be so severe, as consumers would have the savings to draw down as opposed to "straight to default".
My point wasn't that savings rates increase the economy in any way, but they do provide a safety net and regulation on "irrational exuberance" (your point on transfer of savings rate to housing being chief here), perhaps better than any government bailout.
Whether or not we can in a practical sense increase the savings rate is another matter.
I think our model, as we evolve economically, should be more like Singapore, yet we continue to cling to this idea that that we can be self contained (American workers, building American cars, for American customers). The fact is that 95% of the worlds consumers live outside our borders.
In regards to credit markets, I am watching housing defaults and foreclosures in Orange County (ground zero). Right now, monthly resale houses are closing at almost an 1:1 rate with completed trustee sales (completed foreclosures). As long as that persisits as a leading indicator of systemic challenges, I believe global credit markets will be constrained.
that seems like a classic example of Obama being smart enough to recognize a problem but also smart enough to realize that he couldn't offer a solution consistent with his ideology.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I agree. Most of us agree that the science is unproven, but to claim it is false just as bad as to claim it is proven. Furthermore the theory is plausible (though I am suspicious of attempts to make predictions at this stage) and experimental prove may eventually arrive.
What is scary is not the scientific effort, but the use of it by leftist groups as a way of attacking the capitalist system and the unthinking reaction of much of the political class to follow the old line of "Something must be done. This is something. Therefore......" and thus promoting a mix of hair-brained policies and special-interest schemes and subsidies.
Now from a conservative political viewpoint, what we mustn't do is tie ourselves to the mast claiming that it is all rubbish before the science is proven. And also to take what is good from the issue. Hell, I'm sure the average conservative experiences a hell of a lot more of the "environment" than the average liberal, and more often than not react by buying a piece of it and conserving it by their own effort so there shouldn't be an assumption that trees only matter to the liberals. Conservatives like trees but they tend to buy them not go hug someone else's.
Where this leads is picking off the parts of the "Green Agenda" that are consistent with our values (such as energy efficiency) and market based solutions (emissions/carbon-trading). Which will help marginalise the oppositions effort to introduce draconian socialist interference in the economy by this back door.
Two points:
1) Where Republicans can flank the Green Agenda is in technological solutions to carbon overproduction. The US has reduced its carbon output dramatically in the past 10 years without government intervention simply by improving technology, where Europe's governments jumped on the Kyoto bandwagon and accomplished nothing. A super-majority of Americans (72%) agrees that entrepreneurs can produce technology to solve the problem faster and better than governments can. That's where we win. Jump on board.
2) Your attempt at balance is admirable, but a bit behind the curve. This is simply no longer true: "...to claim it is false just as bad as to claim it is proven."
What's true is that there remains no part of the original AGW scare that is supported by current scientific knowledge. The only thing left that argues for carbon caps is those silly models, and they're provably less able to predict future climate than a blindfolded ape hurling darts at a climate chart.
Allow me to point you toward two rather recent pieces for good summaries:
In this one an Australian carbon modeler explains in general terms how the picture has changed since the 1990s;
In this one, I summarize the recent evidence suggesting very strongly that the earth may not even be warming.
Enjoy reading, and let's kick the socialists back to college, shall we?
Government mandated carbon dioxide caps? No.
Government mandated energy efficiency? No.
Nothing.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
We don't need the federal government to do that. States can and should handle it by themselves.
Any President who continues a status quo approach with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is one who will fail in the War on Terror. I'm hoping that John McCain will be different, but I doubt anything will change without enthusiastic support from the GOP.
"Austere, intolerant, well-armed, and blood-thirsty, in their own regions the Wahhabis are a distinct factor which must be taken into account" - Winston Churchill, 1921
...the descendants of today's Saudis are the most powerful people in the world, and the American Empire is as distant a memory as 15th-century Spain is today?
And yet this isn't so far-fetched. At this moment, the Saudis (and their cousins in Dubai and a few other places) are acquiring several hundred billion dollars per year, darn near for free.
That's the kind of wealth transfer that leads to world-historic concentrations of power. (At other times in history, it was generally acquired through slavery and wars of plunder.)
If you have to work for a living or make your money through compound interest, you'll never get nearly as rich as you will if people just give you money, and keep doing so voluntarily.

Neil said: "I also wish we'd take the offense against the Global Warming industry. We need to push back against bad science."
Interesting. If the Republican Party is going to go on a crusade against Bad Science, who is going to tell the Creationist wing of the GOP? They might be a little annoyed.
Or will there be some sort of special exemption for that little science-free zone?
Gar