Redstate

I agree with much of your map. I also agree that much will change between now and the election. No one knows how this is going to unfold. Between the debates, worldly events, and picking the VP, there is so much that can make a 1 to 5 percent difference.

I know one thing. Whatever else happens, McCain has no chance of taking Ohio or Michigan. Bet on that.

Obama hasnt lead in Ohio since his peak of popularity in February (scratch that..ONE poll in the last seven...Quinnipiac mid-March which gave him an astounding 1-pt lead)

Might tip back to obama though depending on SUSA's newest data coming this week.
currently Ohio is McCain +1.6
Comparatively Pennsylvania is Obama +6.5
Michigan McCain +.5
Florida McCain +9

Hard to believe McCains lead with one in six Ohioans on foodstamps and Bush's approval ratings in the 20s there...but it is what it is (for the time being).

and personally Id be shocked if Michigan goes red...(Obama and McCain have been tugging this state back and forth...and unfortunately the political machinery there will stop it from going Republican by any means necessary)

Texas is under 5 percent?!??!

I will not allow another Holocaust - John Mccain

I agree that McCain looks better than expected, but I've seen some posts here predicting a Republican landslide. I still have a hard time believing we're going to lose a ton of seats AND win the Presidency. The trend is still against of here folks!

keep it coming finn.

Unfair. Unbalanced. Unmedicated. -- IMAO

New poll out today.

http://www.redstate.com/blogs/patriotroom/2008/may/20/poll_mccain_thumps...

Bill Dupray at The Patriot Room

This map may very well be how things turn out in November. It shows that McCain can win and win well, even if the win will not be a landslide. I do think however, that a couple of those states are in play for McCain. I would predict that McCain can win California.

The U.S. Constitution, read it weekly, live it daily.

I have a feeling that 2008 is going to be just as close as 2000 was.

we better start praying right now that Tim Pawlenty can bring Minnesota into the GOP column because we are going to need it. If we can flip PA and NH and hold Ohio we win..

"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment, or anti-trade sentiment."

I'm predicting a McCain win in the bluest of the blue states, Massachusetts. Once Hillary is gone and it's McCain vs. Obama as the only choice, watch those polls move toward McCain in some of those blue states, like Pennsylvania. If McCain does take MA, the blowout some here are looking for will become a reality. But I'm not predicting any coattails, even with a blowout.

I think that once Obama puts Hillary away (which might take to the convention), he will see a fairly good bump in the national polls and will lead McCain by 10-12 points. But once we get into late Sept and Oct, it will tighten. I think that the media will be surprised on election night as to how early they will be able to call it for McCain. They will focus on meaningless "national" polls to prop up Obama while McCain cleans up in the electoral college. Not talking 72 or 80/84 numbers, but perhaps more like 1996 when Clinton got 350+ EVs.

If the election is very close (tho I think there's a chance of a McCain sizable win) and given CURRENT polls and my intuition, I think the following is true.

Of course, most red and blue states will retain their colors.

So starting at the 286-252 baseline of 2004.

Iowa (ethanol) and Colorado (hippies) WILL go blue.

New Hampshire WILL go red.

Making it 274-265 McCain.

BUT the following states MAY flip: Ohio and New Mexico (25 electoral votes), on the one hand, and Wisconsin and Michigan (27 electoral votes), on the other.

(Barring a national landlside, I agree that Virginia will not seriously be in play, nor will California--dream on, guys.)

The baseline, then, for both is 249 for McCain, and 238 for Obama.

Ohio is obviously the most critical state, as it alone can give McCain 269, and without it, Obama can only reach 269. If I were Obama, I would choose Strickland for a running mate.

Obama needs to win at least two of those midwestern states.

The interesting thing is that if CURRENT RCP averages are correct, we're headed for a 269-269 tie, as McCain is slightly ahead in Ohio, but Obama is slightly ahead in the other states.

But stuff changes.

In the next few months, Obama will move up in polls, and will get a significant bounce from the Convention, of the order of 15-point lead. I would despair only if his lead is over 25 points. I would be giddy if his post-Convention lead is less than 10. But if it's in the teens, McCain will surge back, and we will have yet another nailbiting race come October.

Prediction (which is a worth a nice hot cup of jacksquat)--McCain wins by 6, and gets over 300 electoral votes.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke