On Brownback & McCain
Don't Count Out Brownback. McCain Is Toast.
By Erick Posted in CPAC | Special Events — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A couple more thoughts on CPAC before I go to bed.
Leon pointed out to me that Brownback campaign only paid for four registrations for CPAC and I don't know what the number was for Romney, but I know I met more than a dozen students who told me Romney took care of their registrations. Additionally, there were 75 specific college students for Brownback present and more than 200 for Romney that were bussed in. So, I think it would be a fair statement to say that Brownback cannot be counted out given what was a relatively good showing with such a small amount of subsidized activity.
Also, among individuals who considered themselves social conservatives, Brownback was their first choice.
On another point, several friends are making the case to me that I was too quick to count McCain out. After all, he got twelve percent at a convention in which he not only chose not to participate, but was actively criticized for doing so.
Here's why McCain is damaged goods. I've seen four news channels mention the CPAC straw poll tonight. They all listed the top four candidates: Romney, Giuliani, Gingrich, and Brownback. Not one listed or talked about John McCain.
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On Brownback & McCain 15 Comments (0 topical, 15 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
If Brownback paid for FOUR and Romney paid for twenty-four (much smaller number than is my understanding), it says something. Stacking the odds much?
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
Brownback's not even on radar screen of RNC members according to this "insider's poll"
When RNC members were asked point blank "Who would you like to see as the Republican Candidate for President?" Romney won handily with 18% (Nearly doubling up on the other contenders, Rudy at 11% and McCain at 9% . . . Huckabee made a showing at 4%, but only 2% said Gingrich, and Brownback didn't even register at 1% on that question)
Also, Brownback got a whopping ZERO percent when RNC members were asked which GOP candidate stood the strongest chance of winning a general election
Brownback will not be the GOP nominee . . . I don't even think he'll rise to be the Pat Buchanan/Gary Bauer type of candidate that social conservatives will strongly rally around. He and Huckabee will be fighting for that position but neither will make it IMO.
Jeff Fuller
http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/
See my disclaimer of Romney Support at my blogsite line above (essentially I'm an unpaid grassroots supporter/blogger).
The overwhelming majority of primary voters aren`t RNC members. This is an establishment poll. Would I like to have seen Brownback do better? Of course, but this is such a small sampling of primary voters that I`m not about to lose any sleep over it.
the vast majority of NH residents are independants.
This election cycle may be interesting primary wise, because in past years one party had a VP running or an incumbant, so the independants could easily swing to the other party primary to "affect" the outcome (there is some talk that this was what happened with McCain, that many of his votes actually came from people who intended to vote democrat in the general but voted GOP in the primary-of course there is no way to actually prove this theory).
But either way this time around independants that lean one party will likely be voting in that primary-at least during the early ones. Somebody who badly wants Obama over Hillary isn't going to take a pass on that vote to reek a little bit of havoc in the GOP primary.
What makes me really and truly sad about what you just said is that, if it's at all true, that people would rather see a high profile person in office as opposed to someone who genuinely cares about conservative issues. I don't think Rudy is at all conservative. I just think he didn't have a chance on the democratic ballot and we're all scrambling for straws right now trying to find a feasible one, despite his obvious shortcomings.
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
that he isnt on the radar screen of the RNC. He must be doing something right.
RNC=
RINO
NATIONAL
COMMITTEE
Just because McCain came in fourth at CPAC doesn't mean he's ruined for the GOP nomination. It does mean that the conservative grassroots won't warm up to him anytime soon.
I think CPAC is like the base of the base of the base. If you spend the time and money to go to an event like this you are obviously a very committed activist. I don't think it is any suprise that McCain did not do well among such activists.
CPAC also attracts the most committed footsoldiers, a critical part of a primary campaign. McCain supporters should be bothered by this.
to win a primary election before you can win the general. McCain has been running a general election. His maverick ways may appeal to true independants, but they aren't the core of who will be voting in the primaries.
I think McCain is toast.
McCain's strategy remains to win partly through endorsements, and he has a lot of them in key places. Given that he did not go to CPAC, the fact that he even got 12% surprised me and actually speaks somewhat well of his campaign.
All three major candidates have Achilles' heels that everyone knows about and has analyzed to exhaustion. The only question remaining is which one will survive to the finish line. McCain has as good a shot as any and, despite the discomfort from the base, by far the best social conservative track record of any of the big three, which is of great importance. McCain, 7 years later, is still suffering from the curse of South Carolina (which he of course brought on himself). I am convinced that is at the bottom of it.
I like Romney a lot. He may be my personal favorite, all things considered. But the guy is such a transparent flip flopper based on the campaign he's running that it just doesn't fly, imo. After seeing the Youtubes yesterday, it feels like a real dagger. Of course, they all have "daggers." The nature of the Republican Party is (and has been since Lincoln) to have more moral absolutes than the Democrat Party. We are seeing the difficulties of that aspect of the party right here.
Like I say, they all have Achilles' heels. One just hopes that the fighting over which one survives won't be so acrimonious as to divide the party or damage the brand.
McCain's strategy remains to win partly through Democrats, just like he tried in 2000.
Run like Reagan!
McCain was more than happy to get help from the Democrats in the Michigan primary in 2000.
Maybe he's hoping that some Democrats will sneak into the Republican caucuses in Iowa next year.
he'd be disappointed in Kenneth Blackwell. McCain came out to Ohio and endorsed Blackwell in the primary against Jim Petro and others.
You'd think that Blackwell would return the favor by endorsing McCain in his primary.
Nope.
Blackwell instead encouraged conservatives not to compromise their values for any of the leading candidates.
McCain's strategy only works if those he bribes STAY BRIBED (hat tip to Rudy Giuliani's book on leadership for that one).
Blackwell didn't stay bribed and liberal Republicans like Marilyn Brewster, whom McCain backed in 2005 in a primary election against a conservative Republican, cannot possibly help McCain.
It is sad to note that McCain is being pummeled so hard given the fact that he has the most compelling life story of any of the candidates. He has paid his dues in Vietnam and deserves special respect for that. But McCain has learned a few things in life. One of those things is how much power guys like Dobson and Pat Robertson really have. He has irked them to the point where they are using much stronger language against the pro-life McCain than they are against the pro-choice Giuliani.
McCain has also learned that bucking the party may get you media plaudits but it will also earn you permanent enemies.
I wish him luck in whatever his next endeavor may be.
That's Leon takes on it. I heard different. I think the number of Mitt volunteers who were paid for/bussed in was a little less. But who will give you an honest number? Everyone has an agenda.
Either way you can see it how you want. The question on my mind is, if Brownback was recruiting people to come how come he could only get so few? To me it speaks for Romney's ability to organize and attract activist, highly valuable.
I don't know if we should count McCain out. I don't think he can win, but he will stick around for a while. My question is, What does McCain has to offer that is not found in other cnadidates?
www.mymanmitt.com
www.race42008.com