Here's Where I Think We Stand As of Now on the Horse Race
By Dan McLaughlin Posted in 2008 | 2008 Presidential Campaign | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (39) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Take this for what it's worth, but here with minimal spin is my distillation of the calendar, the polls and the CW as they stand.
1. There is no frontrunner. The winner of Michigan on Tuesday becomes the official frontrunner at least through Florida on the 29th. If it's McCain, he argues that he's a known, vetted national figure who has won 2 of 3 significant contests thus far. He then remains the frontrunner even if he doesn't win SC. If it's Huck, he argues that he has won 2 of 3 and is only now heading for his home region; he stays the frontrunner unless McCain somehow beats him in SC. If it's Mitt, he argues that he alone competed in all 4 contests thus far, won MI & WY, placed second in IA and NH, and has the money to go national on 2/5.
2. Rudy has to win FL outright or he is toast. He's gone too many contests without being competitive; only a first place showing in a big, contested state changes that dynamic. If Rudy wins FL, his February 5 strategy remains in play, though it is still a long shot. Best outcome for Rudy now is for McCain to win MI and Fred to at least make a strong showing in SC so that Rudy faces neither a re-energized Mitt on 2/5 nor a Huckernaut in FL.
3. Fred has to win SC outright or he is toast. Same dynamic as Rudy, plus Fred needs badly to keep Huck from locking down the South. Best outcome for Fred now is for Huck to finish third in MI.
4. There's no way that there are more than three tickets punched to survive 2/5, but I can easily see it remaining a 3-man race through March 4, when Ohio, Texas and three New England states vote (MA, RI & VT). My guess as of now is that the race ends there; I can't see anybody being ready to put the whole thing to bed by 2/5 (several of the candidates have likely wins that day in their home bases) and the primaries in between (LA & KS on 2/9, VA/MD/DC on 2/12, and WI/WA on 2/19) seem unlikely to be decisive for candidates who have survived that far. But God have mercy on us if we go past 3/4; besides Mississippi on 3/11, we then go six weeks until the next primary (Pennsylvania on April 22), by which time the D nominee will already be spending general election funds.
5. The hidden story here is money. Except Romney's own checkbook, none of these guys has the money to last beyond 2/5, and only Mitt and Rudy can even get that far without raising a lot of money this month; that's why they each need to leverage visible momentum to avoid getting KO'd. But the surprise at the end of the day may be that one of the candidates who ended up far off the money lead wins the nomination, which is a much bigger long term story than it has been so far.
No matter how many Democrats vote in the race, this is make-or-break for Romney. He's not trying to prove that he is a bona fide conservative, so much as he is trying to prove that he can win. If he can't even win in Michigan, it doesn't matter if it's because all of the Independents showed up to stump for McCain -- he's toast.
McCain, who needs to prove his conservative credentials in addition to his electability, could be affected by this. If the consensus is that he won because of all the democrats and independents who voted, that might hurt him with voters interested in choosing the most conservative candidate. On the other hand, it would bolster his argument that he is the most electable Republican candidate, which is one of his greatest assets, so that could still play heavily in his favour.
Plus, I don't think that people want a long, bitter, protracted battle for the nomination. There are a lot of die-hards on this site who will only support their candidate, and would never vote for so-and-so, but I think we've overrepresented here. Plenty of mainstream voters would be happy with several of the candidates, and vote for whoever is the eventual nominee. If one candidate can really emerge as the consensus candidate, and generate substantial momentum and a sense of inevitability heading into SC, FL, and Super Tuesday, it could be all over.
If the same candidate wins Michigan and South Carolina, I think that candidate will go on to win the nomination. And I think McCain and Huckabee have the best shot at pulling that off.
There is no President but Lincoln, and Reagan is his prophet
...it will throw a wrench into that scenario. That could truly throw the nomination fight into a brokered convention.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
especially if it's still leading in the delegate count with a second place finish in MI since it's not a winner take all state. 5 days later he wins in NV with more delegates than in SC. Face it, the bread won't be toasted in this race until well after Feb 5.
If Romney continues to take second place, he can stay in this as long as different people continue to take 1st. As long as there is no candidate with substantial momentum, nobody for Republican primary voters to fall in line behind, Romney's attrition strategy can work. Placing a consistent second in a divided field gives him some credibility as a consensus candidate.
But that doesn't work if somebody emerges as the consistent 1st-place finisher. If McCain takes first in New Hampshire and Michigan and South Carolina, then it won't matter who takes second -- McCain will have emerged as the front-runner and the consensus candidate. Similarly, if Huckabee follows up his Iowa win by taking Michigan and South Carolina, he moves into FL and 2/5 with enormous momentum and real credibility as the front-runner.
The only way four 2nds works for Romney is if nobody else gets more than one or two 1sts.
Now made with 100% pure McCain sugar.
If McCain wins MI and SC, then McCain has the momentum into Florida. It's possible, but we'll have to see. If Huck wins MI (doubt it) and SC, then Huck has the momentum into Florida. Remember Florida still looses half their delegates. Even with this momentum, I still want to see what happens less than a month from now on Super Tuesday because Giuliani is still an unknown. With MI and SC lost, Romney still will probably pick up Nevada and so the delegate count is far from toasting anybody but RP and Thompson. Thus, I don't think this is over until at least Feb 5th. And my guess is that it won't be over until the Spring.
As to point Four, it is not inconcceivable the race could go deeper into March. I certainly agree March 4 looms large, and there may be a lesson in here about states that jump into the fray too early. I disagree to an extent as to points Two and Three only because everything remains so unsettled at this time. If Huck or McCain take both Michigan and South Carolina and get big cash infusions, you could be right but that looks highly improbable right now. Florida is an expensive state, of course, so Thompson might not be able to financially compete there but he could do an Edwards through 2/5. I really see no reason for Rudy to drop out if he places third or above in Florida if he has the money to continue, which he surely will.
So I largely agree but I don't see any departures, yet, until after 2/5 and see the race dragging into March. If it is any consolation, the Democrats appear equally deadlocked.
Excellent analysis.
...is it possible for a candidate to emerge that hasn't been running? i.e. Newt Gingrich, Mark Sanford, Tom Coburn, John Engler, etc.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Practically? Not really. In spite of all the "I hate so-and-so" sentiments around here [and for the record, I hate McCain], and in spite of most of them having significant flaws, we have a top 5 of pretty good, pretty viable candidates.
It's likely Newt would at least get mentioned in a brokered convention, doubtful any of the others. But each running candidate has enough discipline in their organization to prevent too much defection, so it would be up to the candidates themselves to strike alliances that would yield a ticket.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
I also don't think there is any possibility of a non-candidate emerging from a brokered convention. The public hasn't heard of any of those you mention, except Newt, who has terrible favorable-unfavorable ratings. There simply is no consensus candidate waiting in the wings.
I think you miss the fact that in a situation where nobody gets a majority, the candidates still standing have probably alienated each other, and so it becomes all the harder for their delegates to back each other in the end.
That's where dark horses and white knights come in.
I don't think every candidate has alienated every other candidate in that situation. I expect deals to get cut and the candidates who are in 3rd and/or 4th to swing their support to the eventual nominee.
The problem I see with a dark horse candidate is that I can't think of anyone who has enough stature and name recognistion to be a viable presidential candidate with such a late start AND that most of the party can rally around. Can you? Gore fills that slot for the Dems, but I can't think of anyone comparable for us.
will only matter to those of us who pay attention to such things. Your average voter, even in primaries, will see a win as a win, even if it's truly bogus.
Jeremiah 17:9.
than you said, which you didn't ;)
NV has more delegates than SC. If Romney wins there, which he may, the delegate math gets much more interesting. I just don't see the big MO showing itself in any real big way in this contest. There just too many viable candidates (>2). Unless we start seeing a sweep, it's gonna come down to delegate math, and we'll be waiting til Spring.
Nevada have more delegates than SC? Is that accurate?
SC has twice the population, twice the GOP congressional delegation.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
And due to voting before Feb 5th, SC has only half its delegates. Nevada gets out of this via a technicality: it doesn't actually select its delegates until after Feb 5th.
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NARF
They've been stripped of half their delegates. So they have 24. Nevada has 34.
You break the rules, you loose half of your delegates. SC did just that by moving their primary date. So they only have 24 delegates of 47. Nevada has 34 delegates. Hence, this time around NV has 10 more delegates than SC. Granted SC is winner takes all and NV isn't, so we'll see how the math plays out, but if I was Romney, I wouldn't be touching SC right now, no way to win that state.
It's true that the nominee can restore delegates, but it's a chicken and the egg scenario. Until we have a nominee, the delegates remain cut in half for the states that broke the rules.
And to the other two that answered above.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
Best I can tell is that they have 34 delegates and SC would have 48 but was penalized just like IA, NH, MI and FL. So they only have 24 now.
Of course, the numbers don't matter right now because they are tiny compared to 2/5. The goal is to get momentum to win on 2/5. And winning NV doesn't do that, winning SC does.
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if MI and SC go to different candidates. Then, big Mo won't show up until after Feb 5th. If one candidate wins both MI and SC, then big Mo decided to grace us this year. If McCain and Huck split MI and SC for the wins and Romney wins NV, then Romney is not done and still in play with the delegate count and he will probably be winning the count until Feb 5th.
I think you're fooling yourself if you believe a win in Nevada gets anywhere near the attention and press coverage and money that a win in either Michigan or South Carolina will. How much press did Romney get from Wyoming?
which I'm arguing won't show up. If the big MO doesn't show up, which I think it a possibility with Rudy's hand not being played yet, momentum will not be part of the game this time like it has been in the past. Thus what's left? Delegate count.
Nevada is not about momentum and it never has been. It's about delegate count as it has more delegates than SC. Mitt doesn't need the money, even though he just raised $5 millions this last week. Huckabee's press coverage got him 2 or 3 points in NH, but not much else. Thus, the big MO will not show up unless one candidate wins both MI and SC and even then, it's a different game after Feb 5th.
This seems like a silly rule. I can't believe that it is set up in a way that you can actually mess with the system. Here is how one site described it.
"The Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all of its delegates for the national convention, and only Senator Hillary Clinton is officially on the Democratic ballot. All other supporters will have to mark non-committed. Therefore, expect a lot of Democrats who would normally vote in their primary to cross over and ’strategically vote’ for the weakest possible Republican candidate for a Democrat to beat in the general election.
"In a three-way race between Governor Romney, Senator McCain, and Governor Huckabee, look for Independents and Democrats to choose Governor Huckabee or Senator McCain due to Governor Romney’s strength in a general election."
http://www.michigandersforromney.com/
But (despite the fact that this site is pro-Romney) why do people think that they will cross over against Romney?
-7up
It looks like Mitt may pick up support from an unlikely quarter in Michigan:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225/55/434206
I'd much prefer Romney over Huck and John.
I hope that come back to haunt the Libs in the general!
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
The Democrats do not want to face McCain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
that by helping Mitt win Michigan it will keep all 5 of our candidates in longer and possibly lead to a brokered GOP convention.
But politics, and especially this primary is unpredictable. This primary (on both sides) is clearly different than any in any of our lifetimes. A brokered convention is certainly no harbinger of a loss. Lincoln won, not only the primary, but also the general, when the GOP convention was brokered in 1860.
I say let 'em play their games.
1. Agree with a few additional thoughts. I don't think McCain or Huckabee can be knocked out of the race, even if they finish third in Michigan. However, I think Romney is dead-man-walking if he finishes behind both McCain and Huckabee. Second place for Romney may or many not be enough for him to stay relevant, but he will have to put millions of his own money into the race to then have a chance. Michigan is a real opportunity for Huckabee. I think he stays in no matter where he finishes, but if he is to actually win the nomination, Michigan is his best opportunity to break out of the evangelical/Southern candidate pigeonhole he's in now.
2. If Rudy finishes second to McCain or Romney, I agree. But if he's second to Huckabee, I think he's still in it. If the perception is that it's a Rudy-Huckabee race, Rudy will still have a chance. If the perception is that McCain or Romney is the front runner, I don't think Rudy can overcome either of them.
3. Agree. I'm not sure even a SC win can get Fred back in it, since it will be perceived as a vote for the regional candidate and it may be too late to leverage a win into money, organization and competitiveness across the many 2/5 states, but at least it gives him a chance.
4. No way more than three. Good chance it will be perceived as a two-man race. There may even be a clear front-runner, although he won't have it locked up on 2/5.
5. I'm not sure any of the candidates have enough money to fully compete across all of the Super Tuesday states. But, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Romney (if he self-finances) should have enough to target their best states and win enough delegates to prevent any of the others from sewing it up. I really don't think Fred has or will have the resources to be competitive on 2/5.
Fred is counting on the Reagon Coalilition to rally behind him. If he pulls it off both he and the coalition win, otherwise he and the coalilition are dead. After that whoever wins I'll support.
If Romney loses Michigan, he's gone.
If McCain loses Michigan, even a win in South Carolina does not help him. I think he limps into Florida.
Rudy must win Florida. The only exception is if he narrowly loses to Huckabee because then he's in a 2 way race with Huckabee for the rest of the campaign. Rudy can win that race.
Here's my disagreement. If Rudy wins Florida, he will win an immense amount of delegates on Feb 5th. Remember, a Rudy win in Florida destroys any notion of anyone else's momentum. New York, New Jersey, and CT are his. And he will be favored in CA and IL. A 3 way race between Rudy, McCain and Huckabee also brings all the heavyweights of talk radio into his corner. Rush, Mark Levin, Hannity, and Hugh Hewitt all are anti-Mac and anti-Huck. Rudy won't win all the conservative base, but Rudy would get his fair share.
The one other comment I want to make is about time. There are 10 days between SC and FL. That is a huge gap in Internet time, so momentum may not have the force it has had in the past.
if he finishes another solid second, I think he talks himself into staying, and joins Fred and Rudy in the group waiting for the tide to turn.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
The way the Michigan primary is set up doesn't favor Romney at all. Letting independents and Democrats vote doesn't play into his hand. Michigan is known for having large populations of both, and there is going to be mischief going on.
I think Nevada is Romney's potential point of refuge in the distance. It has more delegates than South Carolina and is held on the same day. You hear momentum much?
The state is 45% Catholic. Romney has been winning Catholics, both in Iowa and New Hampshire. Huckabee has even been warning his GOTV people to avoid Catholic churches, as they favor Romney. It's also 12% Mormon, again likely in Romney's favor.
Plus, being out west, it's a state very sensitive to illegal immigration. That hurts McCain.
Further, only Giuliani and Romney have been actively campaigning there.
Romney has a lot going for him in Nevada. I don't think a 3rd place finish in Michigan kills him at all.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
A solid win in NV gets Romney very little if he does poorly in Michigan. Romney has to go into a *contested* primary, somewhere, size up his opposition and beat them. Delegate counts at this point are pretty meaningless. Either you have a viable strategy to go into super Tuesday with some wind in your sails or you don't.
I think the news cycles are shorter, so momentum generally is harder to maintain.
If the dems truly cross over in MI though, I don't know how placing in MI will affect the SC vote. It might not be that big of a deal.
Thoughts?
"It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities." ~Professor Dumbledore