Riddle Time-- 40-state win strategy for John McCain
By theoneandonlyfinn Posted in 2008 — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Click on the map below.
The fifty states have been broken up into seven categories.
Conceivably, McCain could win up to 40 states, for a combined electoral vote ceiling exceding 400 of 538 votes.
Youre mission: guess how, and why, certain states are grouped, and how McCain can use his mixed-label Republican status to his advantage in each region.
Explanation will be added later...
is off of microsoft paint.
ive seen that thing though- i prefer www.270towin.com in terms of looking at the EV matchups... shame they dont update their polls enough though...
1. Red states are safe Republican. McCain is beating Obama outside the margin of error in all polls.
2. Pink States. States with significant Hispanic communities (that are growing). If McCain is able to win about 40% of hispanics in each state, he can potentially win the state.
3. Light Gray states. States that could have been competitive if a normal Democrat was nominated, but will be safe Republican in the fall because Obama is such a left wing candidate.
4. Dark Gray. Rust belt states where Obama cannot win Reagan Democrats. If McCain wins two of these three states, he wins the general election.
5. Light green. Five of the closest states in 2004 where McCain can appeal to moderates and win.
6. Dark Green. Typically blue states, but every once in a while will have a polls showing a R can be competitive there. Both these states have had female Republican governors in the last 15 years, so McCain might try to put a woman on the ticket to appeal to these voters. Don't be fooled. He will not win NJ or CT.
7. Dark Blue. Safe Democrat.
I think maybe the color on your monitor is off. It looks orange to me.
Red is 99% [SAFE REPUBLICAN] (yes, thanks to Obama that includes Florida now)
Light Grey 80% LikelyGOP but sometimes Dem["ForgottenAmerica"]
Dark Grey 50% ReaganDems/RustBelt[ForgottenAmerica pt2]
Light Green 35% Eco/Indy-friendly
Brown/orange 25% HispanicSW
Dark Green 10% ["Nail-in-the-coffin/ACELA"]
Blue next to 0% [SAFE DEMOCRAT]
All categories with at least 10% or better are lumped into a 40state maximum win scenerio.
I might add that McCain currently leads ALL of the first two categories I just listed...and he leads in 1/3 of Dark Grey, 3/5ths of light green, 2/3rds of brown, and 0 in the last two.
Based on geography and demographics, each category follows the next in a logical order of focus, effort, and reward.
Lead the "forgotten America" states (light grey), and bleed it into the competitive Rust Belt (the dark grey states)...win there, and shift your focus to the more independent side (building on your now-existing coalition of conservatives and Reagan-Democrats) in states like Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.
Now, building on their concerns and support, go after the hispanic voting bloc, with its conservative social values (and often shared concerns with bluecollar crowds on competition with illegals) to secure the four corners...
if you make it far enough where California is within the margin-of-error, the very last category- CT, NJ, DE...is not so hard to conquer.
the Dukakis coalition may still win out in 10 states... but McCains "forgotten America" campaign kickoff could be the first step to an expansive victory.
Am I saying McCain WILL win all forty states chosen? No.
But its certainly not inconceivable, particularly once each category of states turns more favorable to him...
I would say that the blue states McCain has no chance of winning. These 10 states are very democratic states with very progressive attitudes. Dark grey states McCain could win if Obama is nominee. These are industrial states(Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvannia) with large middle class populations that are liberal fiscally yet conservative culturally. Light grey states should be solidly in republican hands yet McCain may have to work hard for them(especially Missouri). Red states are all solidly republican with the exception of Virginia(trending more Democrat). These states are strong on national defense so McCain has a big edge over any democrat. Not sure why orange states are grouped together. Illegal immigration? McCain should do well in New Mexico and Colorado but not California. Green states have long histories of being very independant(Oregon, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin) maybe McCain's global warming rhetoric will play well in these states. Green states, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut should all go democrat, but maybe Lieberman could campaign hard in these states and give McCain a slight chance? Help me out??
"To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical." Thomas Jefferson
Really, there are enough fruits and nuts in AF and LA to make any pickup unlikeley.
"Any love letter is incomplete without a Ronald Reagan quote"
--my sophomore year roommate
"Any love letter is incomplete without a Ronald Reagan quote"
--my sophomore year roommate
There is a dynamic "what if" tool on the net, but it's at MyDD. I won't put a link in this post but I'm sure most can find it.
You can click on the state, change from Blue to Red etc etc. Neat to play with, but it's over in Donkville.
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Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !