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"Nothing's Over Until We Decide It Is!"
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Kneel Before Zod | Let's You And Him Fight | Rooting For Injuries — Comments (27) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Refusing to go gently into that good night, Clinton supporter Jerome Armstrong stubbornly sticks to the message that Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic Presidential nomination. He points to West Virginia as a state that serves as a good indicator of what Armstrong believes to be Barack Obama's general election problems. Sensitive to charges that fretting about Obama's general election appeal in West Virginia could be tantamount to giving credence to the views of racists, Armstrong spends a goodly amount of time denouncing anyone who would dismiss as racists anti-Obama voters in West Virginia.
This isn't particularly interesting save for two observations:
- The Clinton folks actually believe that their candidate might yet pull off some sort of miracle and capture the nomination.
- Despite all of the talk that Obama's nomination is now inevitable and that with said inevitability will come newfound party unity, seething anger and resentment continues to define the mood of Clinton supporters. This is, perhaps, somewhat understandable; at the beginning of the nomination contest, I don't imagine that people like Armstrong really ever thought that Obama would be able to wrest the nomination away from Clinton when they consulted the stars. Nevertheless, one would have thought that the various pro-Clinton factions in the netroots would have begun to reconcile themselves to an Obama nomination and then line up to support him against John McCain and the Republicans.
Well, perhaps eventually, they will. But for now, there remains seething anger and resentment and since it is almost the middle of May already, one could easily see the resentment continuing through the summer--especially if Hillary Clinton decides to push through the rest of the primary schedule and goes to the Democratic National Convention without having fallen on her sword. Ted Kennedy kept on fighting up to and during the convention in New York in 1980 even though he had significantly less support then than Clinton does and will have during this electoral contest. I am sure that this information will not be lost on the Clintons, I would not be surprised if they continued to play every trick in the book--and some that may not be in the book--to try to win the nomination at the last moment during a knife fight in Denver and while I have not recently checked the stock prices for popcorn companies, I don't imagine that they have gone down all that much.
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"Nothing's Over Until We Decide It Is!" 27 Comments (0 topical, 27 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
...at least 1,500 pledged delegates; Obama will have about 1,700. Everybody else is up for grabs. Unless he can find some way to get her to quit, of course.
Interestingly, Obama's polling at about 51% in Oregon. I hope that somebody's thought to plan more polls there in the next nine days...
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
No She Won't Back Down
by Whitehorse
Stand her up at the gates of Hope & Change & Change & Hope, & she won't back down. She's accustomed to getting her way.
Obama & his folks better be darned careful how they spin WV, or they will give Clinton another opening.
I am of the opinion that Obama wants
by Rothn
Clinton to stay in the race. In fact, I think he wants this to go to all the way to the convention (more on this later). I think Rove is right. Contrary to popular opinion, the Democratic convention will be a lovefest. There will be no riots.
First of all, I am convinced that Obama has swayed ALL the superdelegates he needs. He just announces a new one whenever there is bad news or whenever he feels the need to show momentum. Case in point; he announced 4 supers AND Bill Richardson in the midst of the whole Wright affair and then followed it by another 4 supers right after the Clinton Blowout in PA. I am convinced he has all the supers he needs. He just unveils them on an as-needed basis.
With this in mind, it is to his advantage to prolong the nomination for as long as he can. He can effectively deal with his weaknesses with Clinton in the race because she gets all the bad press. His dirty laundry gets aired but because Clinton is invariably the bad guy, his image remains intact. Wright would have hurt him in November. But it is now old news. You know the media will never bring it up again.
As long as Clinton is in the race, McCain cannot effectively start his campaign. Should he campaign against Obama? Should he attact Clinton too? His biographical/autobiographical tours are a good idea but no one is paying attention. The democrats are sucking up all the media attention. He did poorly in the last head to head polls. Also with Clinton in the race, Obama can ignore McCain (when it suits him, of course).
The Democrats are also putting in place their national campaign. They are literally running a 50-state campaign. Obama now has offices and grassroots movements in all the states he has campaigned in. Especially North Carolina. McCain will be playing catch-up.
So yeah, I believe Obama wants this race to keep going. Clinton will keep going. Perhaps they're in it together. The dem convention will be a lovefest.
It's an interesting theory, Rothn.
by Moe Lane
There's one argument against it, though: Obama's gotten noticeably punch-drunker as this campaign's gone on. The last month especially. He's showing the classic signs of too little sleep, too much travel, and too many speaking engagements: mixing up of numbers and dates, a tendency to ramble, and several highly entertaining flareups of automatic mouth disease. Meanwhile Clinton seems to be living directly off of other people's life energy: she's improved since this has all started.
That's the major reason why I laughed and laughed when McCain offered that town hall thing. I didn't know that the old guy could be that much of a smiling villain. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
the race.
Clinton inevitably gets the bad press. Obama is thanking his lucky stars that he is off his game at this point in time. If it was Obama vs. McCain, McCain would seize on these gaffes to discredit the age issue. But he can't. He expects Clinton to do the dirty work for him. But when Clinton does it, she's the bad guy. And Obama survives unscathed.
The 57 state gaffe was a Friday story. With the 24hr news cycle, it will be over by Monday. Meanwhile, Obama will take this chance to brush on his Geography. Just like he took the "clinging" issue to sharpen his small-town folk rhetoric. It doesn't matter what Obama does, Clinton is the bad guy in this narrative. And Obama is learning from his mistakes.
Not really, no.
by Moe Lane
There's not much sign that he's learning much of anything at this point, to be brutally honest about it. Except that 20 hour days don't stop sucking worse and worse.
As for 24 news cycles... stuff comes back.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Way too conspiratorial
by sinz52
So yeah, I believe Obama wants this race to keep going. Clinton will keep going. Perhaps they're in it together. The dem convention will be a lovefest.
That's way too conspiratorial.
The Democratic Party does NOT benefit from having the racial issue played out day after day (Hillary's "hard-working voters, white voters") in front of the mass media.
An orchestrated fight between Hillary and Obama, designed to make both look good, would NOT be dealing with race. Race was something Obama tried very hard to avoid until Hillary started hinting at it, and then Reverend Wright rammed it in the nation's face.
The racial issue wasn't Howard Dean's idea, and it certainly wasn't Obama's idea, to get involved with.
And the Dem convention cannot be a "lovefest" as long as identity politics has gotten in the way. You've got a direct clash between race and feminism. That's not easy to overcome, since guys like Sharpton and the old-style bra-burning feminists love to pick fights for the sake of picking fights.
Ok, perhaps she's not in on it.
by Rothn
But it still benefits Obama for this race to keep going. There is a threshold where the race might start to hurt the party. They're not there yet. Polls show that a majority of democrats want the race to continue.
The divisions in the democratic party have been greatly exaggerated.
If Obama and Clinton are both in the race till the convention (Aug 25-28), then they continue to suck all the media attention throughtout the Summer. McCain depends on free media due to his lack of campaign money. He cannot effectively launch a campaign. Meanwhile, the press continues to cover for Obama. So whoever wins the dem nomination only need to campaign for 2 months for the general (sept, oct). And don't forget they already have the infastructure on the ground.
There are advantages and disadvantages.......
by MagicalPat
There are advantages and disadvantages to having Clinton stick around. It is true that McCain will not be able to use most of the dirt that Hillary has dug up on Obama since the media will conveniently consider it old news. (Although I suspect the Keating 5 will somehow become very fresh news indeed). However, there is plenty that McCain can hit Obama with that Hillary never will trot out because she is essentially no different than Obama on those issues.
A few examples:
1) Abortion. We have yet to hear Obama defend his 'no' vote on the Born Alive Infant Protection Act. Hillary won't bring it up because she is not too far from that position and abortion is a losing issue for them. How will Obama get people to 'meet in the middle' when he thinks it is OK for a woman to kill her child after it is born alive as long as that was her intention when it was still in the womb?
2) Gun control. The Dems can lie all they want, but McCain should be able to reveal Obama's gun grabbing stances.
3) Judges. Obama and Hillary probably have the same list of potential judges they'd like to appoint, so it becomes a non issue in the primary. Should be huge in the general though, and again, McCain has the upper hand here.
4) The war on terror. By election time, pulling out on the eve of victory or great progress will look foolish. Obama will look like a weak pacifist next to McCain.
Personally, it used to bother me that the Rev Wright and William Ayers and Tony Rezko problems were getting used up by Hillary to pound Obama making these issues off limits for McCain in the general election. But then a thought hit me... They haven't helped Hillary win. They weren't enough to put her over the top. Which tells me that they wouldn't help McCain either.
It might be good to have these things lingering in the back ground come November. But McCain can beat Obama on the issues, and that is how he should beat him. I don't mind if people that are on the fence are swayed McCain's way by the personal dirt on Obama. I'm happy for him to have all the votes he can get. But I'd prefer he don't try to win the election only using the personal dirt. It didn't work for Hillary and it won't work for him.
The issues however... should bury Barack.
voters are different than general election voters.
Obama has been dropping like a rock with Reagan democrats for a reason. That reason is Wright and Ayers.
True
by MagicalPat
And it will only get worse in the General election. Toss in the real conservative voters and hopefully Wright and Ayers will matter a lot.
I just don't want them to be the focus of the campaign. Hit Obama where it hurts I say.
the MSM will give far more coverage to the Keating 5
by JSobieski
and whatever McCain's blood pressure is that day than they will give on Wright/Ayers. However, Wright/Ayers are probably the most powerful argument for Reagan democrats than anything else we can come up with.
"Eve of victory"?
by sinz52
The war on terror. By election time, pulling out on the eve of victory or great progress will look foolish. Obama will look like a weak pacifist next to McCain.
Are we truly on the "eve of victory"?
On McCain's own campaign website, he doesn't claim any such thing about Iraq. Instead, he says this:
The American people also deserve to know that the path ahead will be long and difficult. They have heard many times that the violence in Iraq will subside soon - when a transitional government is in place, when Saddam is captured, when elections are held, when a constitution is in place. John McCain believes it is far better to describe the situation just as it is - difficult right now, but not without hope.
http://tinyurl.com/3jm7f6
"Difficult right now, but not without hope" sounds rather grim. It does NOT sound like "eve of victory" to me.
And it's sufficiently pessimistic as to give Obama an opening to demand a radical shift in policy.
McCain's "straight talk" too often sounds like "grim talk."
"Difficult right now, but not without hope" isn't the kind of one-liner that gets crowds to their feet cheering.
Passions cool quickly
by sinz52
But for now, there remains seething anger and resentment and since it is almost the middle of May already, one could easily see the resentment continuing through the summer
That's unclear.
It's just as unclear as how much lingering resentment remains among conservatives over McCain's nomination.
The nativist groupies of Tom Tancredo and Michelle Malkin were furious about McCain's locking up the nomination, and they also swore they won't vote for him in November.
Guess what. I don't believe them.
And I don't believe that most of Hillary's Democratic supporters won't support the Democrat in the end. That's been the pattern in the past. Even in the bitterly contested 1968 Democratic nomination, in which antiwar activists were clubbed by police, most of them eventually came around after the nominee compromised with them.
All these folks are just letting off steam, and the Internet allows them to do that easily.
In a close election, there may be a very few die-hards who won't come around. But I don't expect any major ground swells here.
Umm, in 1968 the Democratic Party broke in half.
by Moe Lane
Southern Democrats ended up guaranteeing Nixon's win by supporting Wallace's splinter "third party." It gets obscured by the entire antiwar thing (and by the reluctance of the national Democratic Party to admit that they're still strong-to-dominating in several of the South's State political structures*), but there were some ugly race issues playing out for the Democrats in that campaign as well.
The more things change...
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
*What do North Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee have in common? That's right, they're all controlled by Democrats (yes, I grant that Tennessee's Senate is 50/50, with one Independent).
But...there's no third party running
by SteveLA
Moe
What you say is correct, Dixecrats did flock to Wallace, but the situation is quite different this time. The Republicans are not radically changing the social order as the Democratic party did in '68. The split of the Democrats in '68 was part rebellion against LBJ's war policy with an equal measure of the Kennedy wing's stance against segregation/civil rights.
For a third party to run, I'd ask where's the candidate that appeals to fans of Tom Tancredo or are willing to drink Ms. Malkin's flavor aid of ether voting Donk or not voting at all?
This cycle, not going to happen, next cycle if McCain completely abandons or strongly disrespects those that hold views on these topics, well I could see a Third Party developing.
______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
Doofed that up
by SteveLA
Sorry.. meant to say in the above the Kennedy wing's stance in advancement of civil rights and ending of segregation.
Goofed that up...
______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
It's also not August yet.
by Moe Lane
I'm not disagreeing with you, precisely; I'm just not thinking that things have gotten as bad for Democrats this cycle as they're going to get.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
I wonder if it's too late to buy riot insurance in Denver? n/t
by Tim Schieferecke
Tim Schieferecke
I don't think so
by SteveLA
Moe
I think things are going to get much much worse for the Donks. There is a ton of dirt on Saint Obama piled up by the Shillary folks already and some of it has spilled out.
Remember the kerfufle over the Obama and cocaine comments by Mark Penn? I have this nagging feeling that Shillary and company have had nuclear weapons dirt bombs all set to go at Obama for some time, but have held off from using them due to the rift it would cause in the African American community that is voting 92 percent for Saint Obama.
Much like the failed Soviet Union, those nuclear dirt bombs are going to leak out, maybe not to be used by John McCain, but 527's...oh yea.
______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
I'm not even talking about that.
by Moe Lane
There's one Hell of an ugly demographic clash shaping up for the Democrats this season, and the only way it gets papered over is if one of the candidates withdraws from the race.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
The bitter end
by SteveLA
Moe
I don't think Shillary is going to withdraw, well maybe after WV, and then it will be a suspension of campaign.
I think that ugly demographic clash is going to depend on how Shillary behaves in defeat. Sullen and vindictive (better lock Slick Willy up or vindictive will have new meaning), or magnanimous and graceful. The pieces are there for that demographic clash for sure, but if Shillary leaves the field without parting shots, I don't think that clash gets a public airing although it will still be there.
I was alluding to the behind the scenes nuclear dirt bombs that the forces behind Shillary can leak out resulting in an Obama loss this cycle and a return for a rematch by Shillary the next cycle.
______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
"flavor aid of ether "
by blooch
I thought that was Hunter S.Thompson's drug of choice;)
"There is nothing more helpless and irresponsible than a man in the depths of an ether binge."
WV and Ky will be landslides for HRC - why withdraw?
by FrankLucia
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