Futures markets are moving quickly now as new information and polls are released. Futures markets are important because instead of pundits who have an incentive to pimp their candidate or establish a narrative, the incentive of participants is to make money. The participants only make money if they are right so the incentives are better for predicting. According to Intrade, Rudy is no longer the most likely R to win the nomination. The current (these change every minute) probability of winning the nomination is:
McCain 27.4
Romney 21.0
Rudy 20.0
Huck 11.9
Thompson 3.0.
In case you are interested, the Ds numbers are
Clinton 61.7
Obama 30.0
Edwards 6.0
Note how much more open and even the R nomination is. No Republican has more than a 30% chance at winning today. These will be interesting base numbers to look at after each primary.