Paul Reynolds asks whether Osama Bin Laden is moving on from Iraq. Read on...
In his two most recent internet releases Bin Laden has focused on the Palestinian question. This raises the question as to why he did not concentrate on Iraq. One answer, a theory among some western intelligence analysts, is that al-Qaeda accepts that it is in trouble in Iraq.
According to Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, al-Qaeda hoped to attack Israel after establishing a base in Iraq, but the hope of establishing that base has probably failed:
"Al Qaeda could now be preparing its followers for a strategic failure in Iraq. It therefore needs a rallying cry and Palestine is a no-brainer."
Mr. Inkster, formerly deputy head of Britain's foreign intelligence agency MI6, adds that one reason for this possible shift is the number of complaints about Muslims killed in Iraq and elsewhere.
Read the whole thing.