Redstate

If Obama wins the popular vote by a decent margin (500,000+ votes) and loses the electoral, kiss the electoral vote system goodbye.

Is the long Democrat fight a pure positive? Yeah, they are beating the snot out of each other, but the Dem's are signing up tons of new voters and voter turnout is extremely high. Tons of new donors have sent in cash and are ready for another call.

We'll see.

I think when it comes down to it, the American people are too smart to trust their future to Obama - he is just too soft - but it will be very, very, very close.

"Broadly speaking, liberalism emphasizes individual rights and equality of opportunity. ... including extensive freedom of thought and speech, limitations on the power of governments, the rule of law, the free exchange of ideas, a market or mixed economy,

...I actually think that we have a chance to get him to crater outright. His walkback from declaring victory tomorrow pretty much confirms that this goes on to Puerto Rico, and from there it's just two-plus lovely months of vicious organizational fighting in the Democratic Party. Particularly if he doesn't double-digit win Oregon tomorrow, although I have to assume that he will.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

My current guess is that John McCain gets 53 percent of the popular vote and at least 310 electoral votes.

Despite that, the GOP will lose ground in both the House and Senate, so 'divided government' will be the post-election meme.

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I don't buy libs sitting this election out. There will be sour grapes for a while, but libs are libs. Politics is their religion. They will vote.

I think the voter most likely to be disillusioned is the union voter. The old school beer swilling white FDR Democrat. They've somehow convinced themselves that Hillary is one of them even though she is every bit as radical as Obama. They bought into the Bill Clinton lie though.

I think these guys sit on their hands on election day. This will help greatly in Michigan and maybe Pennsylvania.

If Hillary does steal it. I think it is the black vote that may sit on their hands, but I don't think Hillary can steal it anymore. Either way the liberals care coming out in full force some are just sulking right now.

Leon's gut feeling is correct. The more we hear and learn about Obama's politics, the more scared I become. I think he's just dangerous, period. After looking at some of the online polls, it's almost as scary to realize how many people do not see this man for what he is.

He toucheth the mountain - and it smokes

I'll go out on a limb here (but its a pretty stiff and solid limb) to predict that Obama will lose the general election by the largest margin any candidate has ever lost by. Republicans will regain the house by a massive margin and pick up all open seats in the Senate. It will be a complete sweep. Don't believe me? Fine.

Celebrating Patriots and Exposing Traitors At http://www.countryaboveself.com with a new video on the way: George Bush's 'It's A Wonderful Country' (yes a take off on the movie.) Coming Soon! It doesn't spill the beans, but it does tell a story you don't know yet.

It all depends on who McCain's VP choice is.

This is the most divided election I have seen in my 50+ years life.

Republicans divisions
=====================
Hard core Religious voters(Huckabee supporters)
Fiscal Conservatives (Romney Supporters)
Defense Conservatives (McCain Supporters)
The other Conservatives are not so divided.

Democrat divisions.
===================
African American Voters (Obama Supporters)
Liberal Voters (Obama Supporters)
Blue Collar Democrats (Hillary Supporters)
Latin Voters (Hillary Supporters)

In the end, this is McCain's election to lose. And based on his VP, he is likely to upset some conservatives while pleasing others (or making them all upset).

With many of Hillary Supporters likely to move to McCain, its a question of how many Republican voters are likely to abandon McCain. McCain VP pick will have a lot to do with if he wins the election and by how much.

With such an anti-GOP tide looming, Obama may end up getting elected regardless of his foibles (which will be duly covered up by the MSM and with the Dem's $).

People will vote for someone promising competent big government over a big-government party that has proven to be incompetent AND corrupt.

This will not end well.

we will see by November just how racial this nation still is, on both sides. Blacks will stream out to give their 95% of the vote to Obama. But I think the press is underestimating the extent to which the white vote, especially the southern democrat white vote, will march to the polls for McCain.

There is much anecdotal evidence in MA of a groundswell by white democrats toward McCain because of a justifiable fear of what Obama will bring to the Presidency. I have never heard so many democrats in a presidential election completely turned off by their nominee-in-waiting. We'll see if this has staying power through November.

But in any case, I agree that Obama will probably lose Pennsylvania and also Michigan. After the pasting he got in WV and will proably get in KY, I see no chance for him to win FL, or for that matter any southern state.

This election is B. Hussein Obama's to lose. You guys seem to have forgotten how close the 2000 election was. And this was after 8 years of the wholly televised, dysfunctional, pathological Clinton administration. What makes any of you believe that Barack can lose when:

1: Republicans are NOT in power in the Congress anymore as we were in the Clinton 90's.

2: When George Bush was MUCH more popular than he is now, even as a relative unknown during the election of 2000.

3: When Republicans were STILL fighting for conservative values leading up to the election of 2000.

4: When we weren't saddled by a HUGELY unpopular and seemingly unwinnable war which combined with our actions in Afghanistan has cost us between 1-3 trillion dollars.

5: When we have gone through 2 burst bubbles (Tech and Housing), a recession (post 9/11), a more or less stagnant Stock Market, and now the looming spectre of stagflation with an economy teetering on recession, yet saddled with spiraling fuel and food costs under the leadership of the FIRST HARVARD MBA president in history.

6: When the people spoke FIRST of their opposition to all things Republican in 2006 when Congress fell back into the hands of Democrats and now with the TRIFECTA of special elections which have all gone to Democrats.

7: When the best that Republicans can do is nominate a RHINO in the form of John McCain and still they panic because fund-raising is down compared to the Democrats and they do not have a consistent vision or message that is much different from Obama. And when some party flack talks about how McCain is different one only has to go back and look at all the times McCain walked across the aisle of the Senate to vote with the Democrats.

I mean, GET SERIOUS GUYS! Republicans are going to be devestated in November because this is the 70's all over again. Oil shocks, inflation, an unpopular war, a hugely unpopular President, a GOP in disarray, consumer discontent, spiraling crime, a general sense of malaise, radicals on campus, social unrest, the rise of militant gays and feminism....all hallmarks of the 70's are again here now, only the radicals are in the media, the radical feminist is a nominee (at least for a little bit longer) and the radical gays have won (between California and Massachusetts, gay marriage will be the law of the land in a couple of years or less).

And all of these awful hallmarks of the 70's ushered in the Carter years. Just as the repeat of these hallmarks in 2008 will usher in B. Hussein Obama.

But don't blame the Democrats when you stoke up the fireplace and put on your cardigan sweater, and turn your thermostat WAY DOWN, and try to scrape enough money to buy gas after pushing your car to the filling station, and wondering what we are going to do about Iran, and when you will you ever be able to pay just the interest alone on your debts when interest rates are 10%+ (forget about credit cards), and do you have enough candles and flashlights for the rolling blackouts and just how much it sucks to be an American now in the 2010's.

Blame the Republicans. For they flushed everything down the toilet. Just as the Nixonian/Ford Republicans did.

MDS here we come.

While those are also many points against the republican's above here in the post all McCain has to do is ask Obama 1 simple question and he'll stumble and fall and make an ass of himself.

Mr. Obama, what is your definition of change?

and Obama will bumble like a putz, cause he doesn't have a plan, he just has words and no way of back it up. He's a mouthpiece for the moronic and people who believe he can change the world.

See we're in a tough place this election. With all the debates do you think even 1 will give Obama a hard question? And we see what happened when Fox tried to have a debate, the Dems took their balls (or lack there of) and ran home.

There needs to be a 1 on 1 debate where McCain can ask Obama a question and Obama can ask McCain, or Bob Barr.

Question 1) What have you done for this country? You talk of hope and change, but those things can't help an economy, can't protect us, can't provide knowledge that we are going to be safe.

Question 2) You had your big race speech but in turn you labled all white people as being afraid of African Americans and you tossed your Grandmother under the bus over the issue. How can we get passed these little scuffles and really bring this country together.

Question 3) You claim Bush's comments on the 60th birthday of Israel were misleading and twisted your words. (Plays video of exactly what Obama said) yet in the same sense you attack me and twist my words (video of McCain speech and speeches where Obama twisted his words) What do you have to say about there being this double standard?

Question 4) Every Dem uses the "We're stuck in a war and no republican has a real exit strategy," What Mr. Obama is your exit plan? If we pull everyone out the last group of soldiers will be sitting ducks, There were 4,000 dead in this war but there will be 1,000 killed in that last group due to the lack of support and the willingness of the terrorist to say "See we pushed them out"

Question 5) With the ever growing Alliance of Iran, Syria, North Korea and Venezeula how will you combat the threat to our country that has been thrown around by these groups and what are your real ideas to combat the price of oil that will come with this grouping. We see how ethenol isn't working and is crippling the normal US family, will you finally agree that the only real, quick, cheapest solution is either US drilling and refineries or going nuclear?

Question 6) All your social plans have been added up and by the looks of it anyone making over $65,000 a year will be paying in the 55% tax range to cover these plans, while you, as a citizen, have donated less out of pocket then all those who ran this cycle. How can you expect the people of the United States to give away their hard earned cash when you yourself don't and when you continue to support bills that are filled with pork. Mr. Obama you are creating the illegal redistribution of wealth to support the lives of those who won't support themselves, is this really the American way?

One of the things that Liberals were counting on this year was to keep the Republicans dispirited and demoralized.

And at home.

Barack is getting them charged up for, of all people, John Sidney McCain. Captain Amnesty.

His inability to throw the Left under the Bus will be the reason he loses the popular vote, and the Electoral College.

Yes, it's the Spring. The Spring is always the time of Black Tidings for Republicans. However, things always turn.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

While I can see the perspective of some commenters that the race is Obama's to lose, I believe the opposite.

Despite the popularity of Obama, especially among young voters, and the perceived tarnish on the Republican brand, the electoral map is not so different from the past. My gut feel agrees that Obama has big problems winning OH, PA and FL. He will need to move very far to the "middle" to be competitive in these states. Doable, but difficult, given his idealistic base.

McCain, on the other hand, has a following among many Democrats, myself included. I think he would be a pretty decent President. He's not as left as I would like but I think he would still serve as a good steward for our country. All he needs to do is tweak slightly to the middle and he'll get those, so called, "Reagan Democrats."

This Dem is on the fence. Obama still has much to prove. Can he move to the middle? Time will tell. McCain, if he tacks a bit to the middle, as he is starting to do, gets OH, PA and FL ... and wins.

Hey REDSTATE, last year there was much doom and gloom here. Now Republicans have a better than average shot at keeping the Whitehouse and some coattail wins in the legislature. Glass half full, no?

Or is it just his usual gaffes clustering ?

No Republican was on the primary ballot to take on be the sacrificial lamb to our lefty congressman (Pete DeFazio), so I guess I'll be voting for the Libertarian candidate and can say that I don't vote straight party tickets :)

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It all depends on the economy. If we are in a slump with high gas prices and a weak dollar, then look for a lot of independents and "deep thinkers" to vote for him.

"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle

Obama's strategy is to paint this election as a referendum on the Bush Administration, and insinuate that McCain will just be more of the same.

Hence the perception of the country's status on Election Day is what may determine the election. If the election had been held in January or February, with the deepening economic slowdown, we wouldn't have had a prayer. Thanks to the economic stimulus package and Fed actions, there's a chance, a small chance, that the economy will look a little brighter by November.

Late in the summer, Petraeus is also supposed to announce whether troop withdrawals can continue in Iraq. Let's hope that there is some good news on that front. An announcement by Petraeus or Bush that all further troop withdrawals are indefinitely suspended due to an uptick in violence (or any other reason) would probably spell doom for McCain. But good news in Iraq can really help defuse that issue for November.