Redstate

i.e., the concept of the both of them. Later gator to the notion of an unstoppable "Clinton Machine" and any remaining assumptions that he was some sort of expert politician.

I hope they'll soon be truly done.

For purely GOP electoral reasons.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

to keep Shrillary alive.

We need the vast right wing conspiracy to do a little pregame warmup to knock Obama down a peg or two to keep Hillary in this fight.

Yes, time to check his lawyer work and to see if any pics of him at college at any radical rallies can arise.

You honestly think this type of Karl Rove politics is going to accomplish anything?

Yes I do cause I suspect Mr Obama has taken some radical cases as a lawyer and I suspect he took part in some rallies on his days at Harvard. I wouldn't be shocked if he was burning a flag on Cambridge

Username? Rove? Yeah, I sense a moby.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Well mostly sweet and not so much bitter. But she is gone, by her own estimates she doesn't expect to win anything till Texas. I'm no political tactics aficionado but in a two man race having a string of losses is a bad idea.

I find sadness in that she dies suffocated by the empty appeal of a democrats vaporous rhetoric, instead of being impaled on the sharp, sharp spikes of conservative logic. That someone who so epitomized the triumph of willing self delusion over reason, that a couple who so epitomized the worst fears of the founders, should not have a more ignoble end makes me want to cry out "There ain't no justice". But, I always knew that the only justice is that we make.

In time though, Bill Clinton will be a minor footnote of a president less remembered than Millard Fillmore* and less well thought of.

*Filmore did not put in the Whitehouse Bathtub but he did put in the library.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Isn't about time we did?

And to the guy suggesting hardcore Rove tactics: people like you are why we can't get anything done in this country. You'd rather view politics as sport than focus on the issues at hand. Take a lesson from the Dems: most would rather see their team lose than Hillary be president.

You and I both want whats best for our country. That we disagree doesn't make one of us a bad person, it makes us both Americans. When they come to take our guns away, you won't care that I'm the 'liberal'.

(a microscope may be required for this step)

"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill

He votes in lockstep with Dick Durbin. Obama listed as most liberal in the Senate and that's saying something. Very naive on foreign policy. McCain will take him to school in the debates provided we have the right kind of questions.

If I were running the McCain campaign, in blue states, I'd go negative right away on Obama's ridiculous statements about negotiating with our enemies. I'd hammer the experience factor. On the plus side to McCain's "maverick" stance that drives us on the right nuts is the fact that the media has ceded him the outsider title. Obama can't say that McCain's part of the Washington establishment if the media calls him a maverick. Contrary to what the polls are saying, once the campaign starts, McCain will show himself to be far more presidential than Obama.

In blue states, I'd also go on the security issue right away. "Security Moms" will go big time for McCain. Hammer away at it.

In red states, endlessly trot out the "most liberal in the senate" tag.

I think that Obama is hitting his apex right now and that the general will go large for McCain. People feel good about voting for a "first" candidate on the dem side, but in the general, they'll vote for who will be best for the country and keep us safe.

"Be intolerant. Because some things are just stupid"
- Ryan Dobson

with 98% reporting

3928 McCain
961 Huck

This is a primary, not a caucus. Yep, there's a lot of Republicans in DC!

I'm a half-brained liberal, but even I know better than that.

Good job by your guy tonight, by the way. I'll start pointing out the inconvenient [from your perspective] truths about it tomorrow. :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

I look forward to hearing your take on tonights festivities.

You know that I have to point out that Obama will likely be up by over 100 pledged delegates by the time tonight's over. At 124, he could let FL and MI have their place without consequence.

...but are you saying that he's going to increase his total by a net 100, compared to Clinton? Because my back of the envelope (which will probably be higher, but not too much) goes with 107 for Obama, 62 for Clinton*. Net 45, IOW.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

*Yes, it's wrong. But it's wrong by, say, 10 either way.

I'm saying that he has increased his total lead in pledged delegates to more than 100. According to RCP, his lead is already at 121, not including DC or all of MD and VA. (CNN doesn't have him up by quite that much, but that's because they take forever to chalk up delegates. It took them a week to award all the SDT delegates).

If Obama holds a pledged delegate lead of more than 123, then the MI and FL delegates can be seated without costing him his lead in pledged delegates. It looks like he'll actually pull that one off tonight.

Of course, superdelegates could overturn the whole thing, but if they're going to Gary Hart him, it's better to do it before the voting gets well underway (like they did to Hart), not wait until after he's already established a lead. I don't think they have the stones to overturn to vote after it has already happened.

If they do though, CrabCakes will sit out an election for the first time since he's been eligible.

...between your running total and mine is coming from.

Nah, don't feel like telling you what it is. :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

are you relying on any particular news outlet for your delegate totals?

I find that CNN tends to be the most cautious, but also the most useless if one wants the up to the minute totals. CBS and RCP tend to be quick to the draw, but sometimes they have to switch a delegate or two one way or the other.

I guess you don't have to be able to count to be in the news business.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/

I started using them in 2004, mostly because they didn't spin anything and didn't try to. I like these guys: they sit down and crunch the numbers better than I can, and they know when to say "I don't know."

Their only flaw is that they don't toss up stuff right away. I don't expect them to finish totaling up today's races until some time tomorrow, and it can take 'em a while to break down the races by CD.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

However, I will be very interested to see how you argue that Hillary is in a good position to be the Democrat nominee after tonight. I'll be looking forward to your post tomorrow.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

...for the actual delegates, which may be a while.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

from his point of view would be obama losing to hillary.

from a lefty viewpoint it's hard to put anything but a smiley face on the current proceedings

The cause of that disaster was the use of very old rockets and bombs.The fact that the pigtail connector for the electrical connection on ANOTHER plane was connected prematurely, allowing for a short circuit to complete the circuit and discharge the rocket. The ensuing disaster could have been greatly limited if we weren't using very old bombs, which cooked off before they could be contained. This has been documented by a very exhausting investigation. Please get the facts straight. Lord knows there's enough to criticize about McCain, but let's not make it up on the fly.

Forrestal?

Yep, McCain somehow made another plane malfunction and rocket his plane.

McCain won't be getting my vote, but jeeeez... is anyone actually going to fall for this?

eom

McCain's plane was struck by a zuni rocket that had "cooked off" due to a utility truck's exhaust blowing on it. See the following: Forrestal Fire Diagram. There is also a video taken from the island that shows the zuni streaking across the deck and exploding on McCain's plane. (I've seen the video) The fire was exacerbated by the use of out of date ordinance but the cause was not McCain.

__________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.

because he shot down 5 enemy planes; he lost 5 USN planes.

_________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

I just wanted to be fair and point out that his rep as a flyer wasn't too good with crew. (also a lot of ribbing goes on in a military setting that can cut to the bone but that's intended to point out flaws without anger). That of course doesn't demean him personally. As others have, I posted the known facts about the fire because it was so false and needed saying.

I have great respect for anyone who flies particularly NAVY aircraft. The libs never gave BUSH any credit for brains which was they should have cause you don't get to fly jets if you're stooopid.
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The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.

meant to say that what was said about the fire was so false.

__________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.

Interesting comparison. Did you think arrogant drug dealer was a little over the top?

There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy

and one I would not recommend using again.

Besides, pimps offer something concrete. People won't give you $50 for a collection of abstract nouns.

"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

I started playing some Sidney Bechet, and it's so good that I'm missing my party's nominee.

He's making a much stronger case for a Republican victory in '08 than our own candidates.

***

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

the product of platitudes and class-warfare, or tax-policy and cowardice?

***

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan

I don't have any experience dealing with pimps like you might have, arrogant or otherwise, but I don't think Obama sounds like a pimp at all.

but pimp would be a heavily overfreighted term.

"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.

Often by a lot.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Is there a reason for this? Are Republicans living in their winter homes in Jan/Feb, and don't vote back home? I do note that Reps. outvoted Dems in Florida primary, but that was only by 10 percent and the Dems had zero delegates at stake.

-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- vote early, vote often --

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

But apparently it's a trend on the national level for decades. Presumably it holds true for Virginia, too.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

I thought RedStaters were educated, intelligent conservatives...

So, why do some espouse the dumbest idea I have ever heard--"stay home, b/c the MSM is showing us we will lose badly..."

ridiculous.

I was illustrating absurdity by being absurd.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Do I need to put sarcasm tags? Or do you? I just laugh atthe idea that folks should only vote for someone who can win, not the person that best reflects their positions on issues.

-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --

And I believe that either Hillary or Obama would be very dangerous if given the keys to the White House and installed as commander-in-chief. McCain was not my choice by any stretch, but I will be voting enthusiastically for him this November given the stakes this election.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

As a fred-head, i will vote for John.
Sorry if my last post sounded rude. We are on the same page.

-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --

We WILL lose DC. Mark my words.

Hows that for bold?

Yes, our primaries often have lower turnout.

'88 is a good example.

Don't go out on a limb or anything there, you don't want to look silly come Nov!

Heh.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.

in OH, PA, and TX... which (despite the big MO) is unlikely.

I predict the gloves will come off and Obama will be hit hard by HRC and her surrogates late next week when polls show a Wisconsin win for Obama starts tilting the polls in the states she plans to win.

Even with his wins... they are so close in delegates...THANK GOD FOR DNC Proportional voting.

I believe they will go to the convention with things unsettled.

that is a preview of how McCain will school Obama.

THis does not include the fact that Obama's first true vetting will occur in the general election.

I dont think debates are that big a deal to voters...especially in this election cycle. Heck Bush lost most of the debates vs Frankenkerry and they didn't change the final outcome. I think turnout will be the key. But without the Evangelical machine on the ground in places like Ohio, Obama may have the edge in most swing states.

"I'll follow him to the gates of hell"

Baby survives a partial birth abortion, is outside the "womb", and still is not a person (his Illinois Senate voting record). Even Sen. Boxer disagreed, and every other US Senator too.

-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --

Cheney could talk about all aspects of policy...the economy, foreign policy, social issues, etc. McCain is only on solid footing on the War on Terror.

And I also think Cheney was a much better speaker with a much smoother delivery in a debate setting.

Something major will have to happen to turn the tide against Obama. IMO, it won't be a debate.

I am saying that the same way Cheney made look Edwards look like a liberal college student debating an adult who works for a living with real life experience, McCain will make Obama look like a kid who REALLY, REALLY liked the policies of Carter and Mondale.

The debate I cited is just an example of how poorly an attractive excellent style can easily lose to a humble, informed, and experienced style.

McCain schooling Obama in the debates is one possible outcome, but it won't matter. There are essentially three groups of voters for this election, those being solid Republicans, solid Democrats, and swing voters (independents and cross overs). Solid Republicans and solid Democrats either vote or stay home. They will never vote for the other party. Swing voters can be convinced either way. McCain must convince solid Republicans to get out and vote. He is not doing that and without borrowing one of Huck's miracles, he isn't going to. Obama is bringing out Democrats in record numbers and the effect is growing. That's a serious advantage for Obama. In the solid party vote, the debates will matter very little. (In fact, there is an argument that it takes Obama doing very well in the debate to get out the R vote.)

On the issues, McCain has a record and Obama doesn't. McCain will be defined by that record, but without a significant record, potential voters project onto Obama what they hope he will be. And, being the great orator that he is, he can and will use that to his advantage. Swing voters will either like what they see in McCain or they will see what they like in Obama. Some few independent pragmatists will be swayed by McCain, but being the independent voter, they will need to be swayed by McCain's MODERATE record, not his conservative record. The message to win the swing, alienates the solid R's and cuts down on the vote in that segment.

In my view, McCain cannot win against Obama. School him or not, it won't matter. McCain can't bring enough people to the polls. Obama can.

Those here that are relishing Hillary's demise are celebrating a battle won in the midst of a war lost. In a battle with Hillary, records matter, accomplishments matter, debates matter. In a race with Obama, it's all about the magic. Magic that John doesn't have.

Looking at the world today, I'd say your scenario is more likely than not. But, there is long time between now and November. McCain has an uphill battle, but its not an impossible battle. Obama does have weaknesses, the question is can McCain exploit them.

NC

...to run.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Where are you getting this info? Link please?

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

I can almost guarantee that the vote AGAINST Gilchrest will be more than what he got, but he'll eek it out because it will be split between Pipken and Harris. WTF!!

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Clearly, the math does not favor him, and he was implicitly acknowledging that, while also giving a wink to his supporters with an alliterative reference to his faith.

As for the substance of the comment itself, yeah as I big believer in the contributions of the enlightenment to Western Civ, it was a dumb comment, but I give the guy credit for trying to make lemonade out of lemons.

Heck, I think Huckabee would be a disaster as a nominee (and as a President), but the guy really comes across as a good communicator and a likable guy.

NC

Huck is not causing McCain to spend money in the primaries. He's not attacking McCain. Huck is really not taking away delegates from McCain.

Huck is running now to establish his credibility as a national politician. Look, I am just some sleep deprived dude sitting at a keyboard who has absolutely no inside knowledge about anything, but my gut says he'd like to hang in through Texas and Ohio to see if he can make a strong statement, then he'll bow out.

NC

Are you sure this district would easily stay GOP even without Gilchrest?

George W. Bush won with 62% here in 2004. This is a pretty safe seat for Republicans.

___________________________________
Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.

...at this point?

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Since when has Huckabee needed money to be an effective campaigner?

...but he was probably raking in a lot more dough right after Iowa too. Now he is traveling all over the country and paying a full-time staff to run the campaign. He is getting ready to compete in Texas, which is a big state and is no doubt expensive.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

that the actual vote had a margin of error +/- 3%

:)

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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.

________________________________________________________
Halls of Justice Painted Green, Money Talking.
Power Wolves Beset Your Door, Hear Them Stalking.

notatool.com

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

DC for McCain. LOL. My vote has never counted so much.

I really almost voted for Rudy today, but I didn't want to be the guy that let Paul win DC. I really had no idea how the results would come out. Looking back, I wish I did.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

________________________________________________________
Halls of Justice Painted Green, Money Talking.
Power Wolves Beset Your Door, Hear Them Stalking.

notatool.com

Its just that right people haven't tried it yet.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Rudy's strength was "on paper", he never really won votes. Hillary has won some very big primaries already. Plus she has a large amount of institutional support. I'm not saying that it'll work out for her, but I'd say she has a better shot at it than Giuliani did.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

And was very muddied. Its a two man race for the dems now* and nobody likes an 0-10 record.

*Yes I am aware of Hillary's putative gender.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

First "Florida or Bust" became Rudy's strategy after he was already tanking in NH and elsewhere, he had no choice but to fall back to Florida. He tried competing before, but he found out he wasn't going to do well.

So in that context yes, that means Hillary is doing the same thing. She couldn't really compete tonight, and will have a tough go of it in WI, so she is being forced to fall back to TX, OH and PA. She has a better shot at those states than Rudy did at FL though. I hope it gets nasty between now and 3/4. Pass the popcorn!

___________________________________
Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.

I think your analysis as to Rudy is dead on. But, I think Hillary may have the same problem Rudy did. By not competing, Rudy tanked in the early states, which hurt his chances in Florida--a vicious cycle for him. The more Hilllary emphasizes the importance of Texas and Ohio, the more likely she will lose big in Wisconsin and Hawaii, which will just reinforce the Obama momentum. It may be the best strategy she has left to her, but I'm skeptical that she will be able to withstand another three weeks of bad publicity and unbroken landslide losses. The similar length of time between Iowa and Florida killed Giuliani.

The Democrats aren't vulnerable to that at this point. It's now a delegate race for them.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

I don't remember election coverage being ratings driven hyperbole when I was young.

It's so bad now I think it affects turn out and momentum.

They will take a 3% win in one race and hype it to death and the next week call a 9% win "edging out".

Tonight they held back and skewed the returns reporting to make it even until about 50% was in.

I was watching it simultaneous on the Virginia web site and Fox. Fox was lagging behind the web site in percent reporting by 10/15% so they could cherry pick the precincts to keep it close longer for ratings.

It doesn't change anything but I don't like being jerked around.

That was an excuse that became conventional wisdom.
The truth that Giuliani gave up Iowa ONLY AFTER he found out nobody was willing to vote for him there.

And in New Hampshire, ABC News reported on January 8th the following:

[quote]Statistics compiled by ABC News Political Unit and ABC News' team of off-air reporters indicate that Giuliani held more events in this first-in-the-nation primary state than any other Republican except for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in neighboring Massachusetts. He also spent more on TV ads than anyone except for Romney and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.[/quote]

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4105498

He did it yesterday and we have it posted on thread

I'm talking about Omaba.

www.scottbomb.com

As a right leaning independent who has followed this race on both sides very carefully, I think the this idea about Obama being all style and no substance is a perfect example of the fact if you just say something often enough it becomes true. I am actually more clear on both of the Dems in terms of substance on a variety of issues than I am with McCain or Huckabee. I know the details of their health care plans and the differences between them in philosophy when it comes to mandates. I know the difference between Obama and Clinton in terms of freezing mortage interest rates (a dumb idea on Clinton's part). I know where Obama stands on cap and trade etc, Same with Hillary. What disappointed me with the Republicans was that they spent most of their time fighting about who was more like Ronald Reagan and stating they would cut our taxes, and stay in Iraq. There weren't many specifics in what exactly they would do about the economy or things like health care that really are the concerns of the American people. McCain's speech tonight was pathetic and had no specifics. My natural instinct is to vote for McCain, but he has to speak about more than just war and low taxes. In my 20's I voted for Reagan twice and it had little to do with ideology, and everything to do with his general vision of the country.

And I believe that as the general election presses on, the voters of this country will have a very good idea as to the vision each respective candidate has, and what kind of direction they will take the country.

With Obama, it's pretty obvious that he favors a big,