Ground Reports in Indiana and North Carolina
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I've been calling around and digging around. Here's what I'm hearing:
Obama is doing very well in North Carolina cities and college areas. The trends are unadjusted, but it looks like he'll win.
Hillary, however, is doing well in military areas and rural areas. She may be able to draw it closer than Obama would like.
In Indiana, Clinton is going to win if morning trends stay consistent through the day. Keep in mind, though, that it is morning in Indiana.
We'll know more later this afternoon.
Consider this an open thread.
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Ground Reports in Indiana and North Carolina 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
...good prediction.
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Editor for The Hinzsight Report
Word on the ground the Burbs in NC are tending towards Hillary alot like the Burbs around Philly did.
I have come across more Hillary voters today than I have Obama voters. I live in a rural/suburban county in central NC just south of Greensboro. I have seen many more Hillary signs in this area as well. Places like this should be her strongholds. She will get murdered in college towns and places like Asheville, Greensboro/Winston-Salem, Raleigh/Durham, and Fayetteville.
A soldier in Afghanistan was in combat when he inadvertently hit redial on his phone; the result was a 3-minute voicemail left on his parents' phone recording the heat of a battle:
http://www.kptv.com/news/16161182/detail.html
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Obama will never come to be known as a good closer. Ever since New Hampshire, every time he has a chance to lock up the nomination the voters balk. It's a good thing he didn't go into sales.
Tricky Hillary gets within 7 points in NC, making it a moral victory for her, due to her strength in the burbs and in Redneck Rampage country. She's had Bill out there with a baseball bat knocking over mailboxes all over the Carolina backcountry, and I share the notion mentioned here that Obama has weak closing skills. They are both in their element now, engaging in southern retail politics, as if this is a gubernatorial campaign in Arkansas. I'm not sure that Obama gets how to do this.
She wins outright in IA. Called incredibly early, but I don't see her running away with it due to Machine influence in Gary and northwest Indiana.
The Spirit of the Undead Richard Nixon lives on!!!
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
Obama by 12 in North Carolina. Clinton by five or so in Indiana.
Well, I'm on the record now. We'll see how it goes.
Clinton takes 65% of the white vote (or more) in both states; Obama's 90% of the black vote gives him the victory in North Carolina. The Clintons then further label Obama as the latte-liberal "black candidate", and score 30 pt wins in Kentucky and West Virginia later on.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...puts the odds of Clinton winning IN, and Obama winning NC at about 90%, respectively - FWIW.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I have to agree with Clinton here. At least starting with the March 3rd contests saying that Obama can only win the latte crowd and blacks is simply stating a fact and Obama continues to play into it. He also isn't even trying to provide any evidence that he'll do better with key Clinton groups (like seniors and white working class voters) in the general.
The projected results today are more of the same - Obama can't win a state that isn't one or both of heavily liberal (VT) or largely black in terms of Democratic electorate (NC).
Most of the Democrats that I know in NC are Hillary supporters. The few Obama people I know have master's degrees or higher and an annual income in six digits or higher. The regular Joe Dems I know are voting Hillary and distrust Obama to the point that they will vote McCain in the general if necessary.
Regarding the vote in NC today-
"...Well, I’m in Virginia, and if I look South toward NC I can see a flock of mallards in flight over John Edwards palace taking huge dumps and spelling “CHANGE” on his lawn..."
Just a little Tuesday humor. ;>)
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/05/06/an-early-call-on-nc/
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...
This is a link to an open thread from Charlotte.com - the website for the Charlotte Observer. It keeps getting better and better...
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4069744000849776605&postID=2363...
I voted for Hillary,it was very hard. No problems voting but they wrote my name on a clip board for switching parties. Alot of Hillary ,Fred Thompson and McCain bumper stickers in the parking lot. My county seems to lean toward Hillary on the dem side. Several of my conservative friends voted for her as well. I think she'll win here.
That's the last We'll hear from either of them untill Nov.
a Third of voters in NC were African-American and made up 14% of the vote in IN. If its assumed that the recent pattern of Obama winning African-Americans by a 90-10 margin and losses everyone else by a 65-35 margin, by doing some math it looks like the margin will be:
NC: 53-46 Obama
IN: 51-39 Clinton
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080506/ap_ca/primary_exit_poll...
McCain '08
Obama by 11 in NC, Hillary by 7 in IN.
What's the next primary on the calendar?