Redstate

The day after Super Tuesday it was obvious to anyone who didn't major in miracles that Huckabee couldn't create a brokered convention. He had to win 60% in every race then. Now he could win every single vote left and McCain would still have his 1000 delegates and most if not all of Romney's (and the uncommitted LA/MI delegates).

But Huck is too egotistical to drop out and run for Senate where he could help change the country in his direction. He prefers to bask in the MSM glow of "running" for President.

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I think he's just staying in because he's extremely stuborn and doesn't want to drop out untill its official that its game over. He doesn't hardly have a shot, but I think its just in his personality not to quit. I don't think he's really hurting anyone, and he should and it shouldn't be long untill McCain hits 1191.

The most out of touch Huckabots don't realize that even if McCain somehow fails to get a majority before Minneapolis, this still isn't going past the first ballot.

Are ex-Romney delegates going to vote for the Mormon basher over McCain? Come on.

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I think pretty much all Huckabots acturally realize that Huckabee chances of winning are close to pigs flying, but at least this way they're able to adjust to him losing slowly.

Ohio - 54 delegates WTA by district and 31 WTA by state. Rasmussen poll from Friday has McCain up 57-30. That probably means Huck won't win Ohio - but let's say actual results are closer, 52-45 for McCain. That means McCain wins 31 delegates plus probably at least half the CDs (for 27 more delegates).

VT - 17 WTA statewide. I can't see McCain losing this one but see no polling. I would expect this is 17 more for McCain.

RI - 17 proportional by CD. CD 1 gets 8, CD 2 gets 9. This means Huck would need to win with something like 65% to do any better than an effective split. McCain should win here, but let's be generous and give the victory to Huck. Still probably not going to be big enough to stop McCain from getting 4 from CD1 and 4 from CD 2 for another 8.

Texas - 96 CD delegates - WTA if over 50% otherwise split 2-1. Statewide 41 delegates proportional unless over 50% (then WTA). RCP polls are a bit old, but the last two (from the 2/17 area, show McCain at 55% and 50%). Let's say he stays below 50%. He will still probably do no worse than a split in the CDs. I'll again be nice and limit McCain to 45% statewide (in a loss). That will still give McCain 18 or so delegates statewide and he's almost certain to get at least 1/3 of the CD delegates. That's another 32 for a total of 50.

Total March 4th haul for McCain - 133 delegates. Which would take him all the way to 1,122 - only 69 from the win. Mississippi votes on the 11th, they use a system like TX - proportional unless someone's over 50% - Huckabee might actually be able to take them all here. Say he does.

The Virgin Islands goes on April 4th - and they probably will go with the other territories for McCain - add 9 (1,131).

Pennsylvania is next, on the 22nd. They use a loophole system, which means that voters directly elect delegates and vote in a separate beauty contest. The delegates on the ballot are not linked to a candidate (NY used to use this system so I can say that both candidates will be sure to publicize which delegates are supporting them. The commonwealth is worth 62 delegates (another 10 are selected by the State Committee and the final 3 are the RNC delegates - according to CNN McCain already has 2 of the PA RNC delegates in his corner, Huck none). The system is not conducive to shutting McCain out - he's probably looking at taking half of the 62 available (at least), and is probably good for most of the 10 State Committee-selected delegates. But I'll limit him to a round 30. Total 1,161.

IN on May 6th allocates only 27 CD delegates in the primary WTA (another 27 are selected at the state convention in June and are officially uncommitted). Let's again give Huck credit and say he pitches a shutout.

NC, also May 6th, distributes all 69 delegates proportionally. An Elon poll from 2/21 shows McCain up 62-24. So let's be generous again and say that Huckabee actually manages a comeback and wins 50-45. That still nets McCain about 30 delegates - total 1,191.

So, there's the math. And I think I was very generous to Huckabee's actual chances for winning, and significantly understated what McCain will actually take in many of these states. Even so, the race will be over in May. No brokered convention, no chance for delegates to turn to Huckabee as the "conservative alternative" to McCain (which is laughable - the delegates would be better served turning to Romney if they needed a conservative alternative), no reason to be in this thing with hopes that you can wound the party enough to get the nod. Time for Huck's people to develop a new story as to why he's still in this now that both the "I'm going to win outright" and "I'm going to force a brokered convention" ideas are going out the window.

Because that's when its officially over and people should have a choice untill then. I don't see a big problem with that. He's running a very positive campaign, and he'll McCain an enthusiastic endorsement once he's done, I don't think it hurts to have another candidate. I am hoping McCain manages to get 1191 on March 4th though.

Well, if Huckabee is insisting that he will be in it until McCain actually has 1,191 delegates then he will not be able to run for Senate. I can't determine for certain what the deadlines are in Arkansas, but it looks like Huckabee is coming awfully close to running out of time to actually run for the Senate. If he's not out of the race after March 4th then he is likely in through Pennsylvania at the end of April. Looks like the Arkansas primaries are at the end of May - I'd imagine he will have a tough time satisfying any petition requirements to get on the primary ballot if he's still running for President on April 22nd (the day Pennsylvania votes).

If he wants to run for Senate and not get laughed at he probably needs to do that now, or immediately after the March 4th contests. Otherwise he just starts to look ridiculous staying in the presidential race, and after floating the idea that he's going to be the choice of a brokered convention, he's already making it look like he's "all-in" here - that running for the Senate would be a kind of "consolation prize" designed only to bolster him for another run in 4 years. Polls in Arkansas show he would have a tough race and I'm sure Pryor would go after him on whether he was actually going to serve even one full term before he ran for President again (similar to questions that were raised about Hillary here in NY - the circumstances of a big inherent Democrat advantage and the late Giuliani drop out made it easy for her to overcome that - I don't think Huckabee will have the same advantages).

I support Huckabee making himself more and more a pariah and making sure he won't have a chance next time. He should run for Senate for the good of the Party, the good of Arkansas, and the good of his political future.

Oh and this is rich: "a proven desire to help lower income people move up"

Coming from the guy who calls job makers a club for "Greed." McCain has supported pro-growth legislation, welfare reform, tax cuts for the middle class, and NAFTA. He was part of the Republican Revolution that brought low unemployment (still under 5%), lower tax rates, and higher income growth.

Huckabee has no record of enacting pro-growth policies or for helping businesses enable job growth.

He's a populist like Huey Long on economics and you can see where that led Louisiana.

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So Huckabee is a pariah, because he is not willing to give the amnesty king a pass.

No, this is rich "McCain has supported pro-growth legislation, welfare reform, tax cuts for the middle class, and NAFTA. He was part of the Republican Revolution that brought low unemployment (still under 5%), lower tax rates, and higher income growth."

Which pro-growth legislation did McCain propose?
Which welfare reform did he propose?
Didn't he vote against the tax cuts? Yes.

How easy it is to sit around in the Senate voting yes or no for other people's ideas. Or in John McCain's case, voting one way and then, when it looks like you're going to lose, quickly changing your vote at the end!

John McCain is a single-issue nominee. We're supposed to run out and vote for him so that the mean old Democrats don't pull us out of Iraq. It's nothing but a cheap fear tactic.

And then there was John McCain's ridiculous assertion that Mike Huckabee should get out of the race so that we have time to compete with the Democrats. This is a proclamation of weakness!

Mike Huckabee's record is clear. A fiscal conservative, he pushed through the Arkansas Legislature the first major, broad-based tax cuts in state history — a $90 million tax relief package for Arkansas families. He led efforts to establish a Property Taxpayers' Bill of Rights and created a welfare reform program that reduced the welfare rolls in the state by almost 50 percent. He also doubled the standard deduction to $2,000 for single taxpayers and $4,000 for those who are married. He proposed The Property Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights which established a uniform notice and due process procedure to guarantee that all Arkansans will be treated fairly in property tax assessment.

In total, Huckabee cut taxes and fees over 90 times during his ten and a half years as governor, saving the people of Arkansas almost $380 million. When he left office, Arkansas had over $800 million in state surplus, which he believes should go back to the people in the form of either a tax rebate or tax cut.

And now, he proposes we eliminate the current tax system, which penalizes productivity, and replace it with the FairTax, which rewards saving and investing.

Yes. Very good for me.

You need to get real about Mike Huckabee. Out of all our candidates, he would be BY FAR the worst candidate, electorally speaking. McCain has his faults, but he's far better than Huckabee any way to slice it.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

If you don't mind being overrun by illegals.

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