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And we can do everything up to jumping out of windows if we lose, 'kay? :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

And if we win, then we've proven Obama is poison in GOP leaning areas. So we got that going for us (maybe), which is nice.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

Unfair. Unbalanced. Unmedicated. -- IMAO

but as far as living here in Corvallis, we're getting Democrats.... Maybe McCain comes to the next town over (Albany), but that's about it. Besides, I think it would be pretty cool to see a president, whichever party he/she belongs to.

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“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Why? Wait until the end.

...and Davis losing by a wide margin in all but two, I'd have to agree with you. If these results hold up, Davis is done for.

Gingrich has said to anybody who would listen, that running a purely negative campaign against Obama and Reverend Wright is going to flop. And he has been pleading for the Congressional Republicans to have an emergency meeting and hammer out a positive, forward looking agenda to take to the public: Something like a "Contract With America 2008". The 1994 Contract worked splendidly for the Republicans, so why not a revised version for 2008?

http://tinyurl.com/6q6kjr

But the GOP leadership is strangely indifferent to the idea. I just don't understand it. Is it because they don't dare propose anything that could be seen as breaking with Bush-Cheney? Or that they just don't want to take advice from Gingrich anymore?

Or, if you want to be real conspiratorial, is it that Gingrich's pro-environmentalist stand on things like global warming is turning off oil companies, who are big contributors to GOP candidates?

What is the GOP message? What are Republicans promising Americans they will do for the country, if the voters keep them in power?

Can the GOP promise even One Big Thing that would excite the public? Remove the fear of losing one's health care if you get laid off? Simply income taxes so you can fill them out on a proverbial postcard? Blow Osama bin Laden to hell once and for all? Something? Anything?

Gingrich is a smart guy, but lets not forget that B. Clinton smoked him in '96 and '98. And I still don't think the Contract was all that important in '94 - people voted against Clinton that year, and ignored what the Republicans said. The same thing is happening this year, except reversed - the people are so angry at Bush for Iraq that they vote against his party regardless of what stupid things the Democrats do.

Our comeback will only come, I suspect, when Bush is gone. Most likely in 2010 (although things could change when McCain takes center stage after the convention).

the people are so angry at Bush for Iraq that they vote against his party regardless of what stupid things the Democrats do.

That doesn't explain why McCain is running 15 points ahead of a generic Republican, and in fact has a decent chance to win the election.

Evidently the people aren't so angry at Bush that they're prepared to clobber McCain too. Why is that, do you suppose?

I keep asking this: What is McCain doing right, that most other Republicans are not? How is McCain managing to appeal to more voters than other Republicans?

Four alternatives that I see - any one, or any combination of the four could be true:
@ McCain is a longtime GOP opponent of Bush - for seven years - who can't be transformed into the normal loyal Bush Republican.
@ McCain benefits from the fact that he is running for President, where foreign policy/defense matters, while these other Republicans are running for the House and Senate (where the average person votes based on parochial issues).
@ McCain is running against two very unnattractive Democrats for his office. Hillary is shrill, obnoxious, and corrupt, while Obama is too young, inexperienced, and too obviously naive.
@ McCain's positions on campaign finance reform, climate change, and/or earmarks is helping him (I think this is the least likely possibility).

McCain is seen as being not very Republican, and he's doing everything he can to distance himself. He's not doing anything to help the brand, because he's seen as only a marginal member of it.

He still has a chance then?

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

You've got a point there.

But look, calling in Cheney was Dumpster-diver dumb. Voters are angry at the political class in Washington, and are looking for change with experience. That's why guys like Crist and Jindal are popular. It was about as smart for Davis to do as conducting a campaign appearance at a Church Social with a really drunk Department Store Santa.

OTOH, I would like to see the total turnout numbers for this special election. I wonder how many voters are turning out for a Special in May. My guess is 40%.

November could be different. Everything will be ramped up by then.

Of course, we're talking about the House Republican Conference and the McCain Campaign, which walks around the Country wearing a hair shirt and a "Kick Me" sign. So "ramped up" may be a relative term, here. I see nothing, and I mean NOTHING from the McCain people or the RNC that matches the BC 2004 72 Hour Operation.

BTW, it's not generally recognized that the 72 Hour Plan saved our butts in 2006. We could have lost 70 seats. Are we doing that this year?

I don't see any sign of that. But I do hear that the Obambi people have a huge turnout operation underway.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

Maybe McCain would have been more of a vote-getter than Cheney.

I wonder how long it will take for the GOP to realize that, in the current political climate, McCain is a model for the type of Republican who could actually get elected, whereas Bush and Cheney are the model for the type of Republican who may get clobbered this November.

It's not the war. McCain is just as hawkish as Bush (if not more so), yet McCain is way more popular than Bush and roughly on a par with Obama in the polls.

Why? Because McCain is viewed as a centrist pragmatist who isn't tied to a rigid right-wing ideological orthodoxy. His stance on global warming proves it.

It's the same reason why Rudy Giuliani is also viewed favorably, especially by Independent voters.

What is ironic (and sad) is that the three most popular national Republican figures today--Schwarzenegger, Giuliani and McCain--are also the three most despised by conservatives as apostates from the true faith. While Bush is beloved, with a national popularity rating among all voters of only 30%.

You don't send in Maverick and then find out Davis is a Dog Candidate. Then it makes Mac look like a Dog Nominee.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

It is precisely because we have a maverick nominee and a lack of leadership that our party is flailing about.

McCain is running as McCain, an INDIVIDUAL who loves his country, has some conservative ideas, has some liberal/moderate ideas, etc. If I am a hopeful Congressional freshman, I am not sure how McCain can help me win an election. I can't transform myself into a war hero with years of DC experience. In terms of policies, the lines are blurred on many issues (being a centrist pragmatist and all).

One reason we will not have a Contract for America this year is that a McCain driven contract will be at odds with too many parts of the GOP, and a conservative contract will be at odds with at least some of McCain's policies.

In the November 2006 election, the GOP got a wake-up call from the voters.

But then the GOP went right back to sleep.

2007 was the time for the GOP to have regrouped. To say to the public "We hear you, and if you return us to power, here's our new 'Contract with America' that we will implement for you."

They didn't do that. All they did was go into obstructionist mode, reflexively opposing everything the congressional Dems were proposing.

They didn't even try to clean house either. We just got another scandalous congressman, Fossella, being a kind of bigamist with two families. That came out just one week before this Childers-Davis election.

If the GOP has any more scandals like that lurking in their closet to be outed this October, the GOP is toast.

I don't agree with everything McCain is proposing either. But at least he has proposed a positive comprehensive national agenda. The congressional GOP has not.

Perhaps that's because Republicans are used to taking orders rather than taking the initiative. They seem to be lost without Bush or Cheney setting the agenda for them, and they don't trust McCain enough to set one. Gingrich was a lucky exception to that.

The graverobbers at the NRCC just wanted your money, they didn't want to "rock the boat".

A new Contract would have required the House Leadership to ignore the White House and sit down with Mike Pence's crowd and listen to the voters for a change. This is John Boehner we're talking about.

Gingrich's actual record against Bill Clinton isn't quite promising. He had one good election, 1994. It was all downhill after that.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

All of the Contract's proposals died in the Senate. The GOP Senate leadership left him out to dry. All he could do after that was play prevent defense in the House. The whole government shutdown didn't seem to help either.

Regardless of how this turns out, this should have been an easy win for the GOP. The brand is damaged, and until the Republicans can craft a positive message and get the public to believe that they will carry it through, they're going to keep losing. Waiting for the Democrats to screw up isn't enough.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Is that your child and you in the YouTube video simpson316?

did a search for cring

I think you mean all of DeSoto is "in" - this means that all of DeSoto's votes have been counted. :)

This confused me earlier when you first said it.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

I have been respectful, no?

No point in beating anybody up. Its obvious you guys understand that there's nothing good about this, from your perspective.

My merlot is more than satisfaction enough.

We'll undoubtedly get a few drive-bys who'll need to be excised, so no harm in letting you have a small, throaty chuckle.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

If there is a better candidate, I agree. But this is a good candidate. If the Rs lose with a good candidate, where do they start pointing the finger?

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

that Rs aren't losing just b/c candidates stink. It's a scapegoat answer to a deeper problem.

As I said, if there is a better candidate then run him. But Rs had a good candidate and I'm not aware of "better" ones.

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I suggested a concrete thing we can change to try to react to a loss tonight.

If you agree with my suggestion then we have no quarrel.

Yes, I'm just outright dodging our usual argument #2. I hope you're not bothered. :-)

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

I just don't want this to be another "Rs lost because they had a bad candidate" because it's becoming tautological.

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http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

I think its the message.

As a national party, we are flailing about like chickens without heads. Between Bush being a lame duck, McCain being a maverick, and the lack of leadership among the elected leaders in Congress, we are getting crushed.

We need another Contract with America to get everyone on the same page. Otherwise, everyone is going to try to save themslves, and in the aggregate, sink the party even further.

I have concluded that it will be a long road back to a conservative majority and that many Americans are going to have to re-live the late 70s.

They are almost here.

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
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"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

Proven loser? You mean like Johnny Isakson? Dianne Feinstein? Maria Cantwell? Gordon Smith? John Ensign? Denny Rheberg? Sharrod Brown? Ted Strickland? Bill McCollum? Haley Barbour? Mike Huckabee? Mitt Romney? Rudy Giuliani? Jim Bunning? John Thune? Bill Nelson? Stephany Herseth? Norm Coleman?

All these people have something in common: They have all lost high-profile races, and all are serving/have recently served at a high level AFTER their loss, some of them at a higher level then the originally ran for, a few lower, several for the same office.

I'm not saying he should be renominated, I am saying that simply saying he's a "proven loser" is silly. Losing is often a prerequisite for winning.

"I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist – jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference." - John McCain

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Good call.

"I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist – jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference." - John McCain

A proven loser in this race against this Democrat. Happy? :-)

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I followed this race pretty closely and it seems to be that aside from the general repulsion independent voters have for the Republican party, the war in Iraq was the issue that really did in Davis. Americans hate the war. I don't care about the substantive arguments. If John McCain goes into November committed to the Bush policy, he will lose. Its that simple.

McCain gave a big distancing himself from Bush today, and what was the issue? Global Warming! Nobody cares about global warming. He needs to move away from Bush on Iraq. Otherwise, get ready for the unified Democratic rule with big majorities in both chambers.

Crackerjack campaign team. Just caused unknown upheavals on Wall Street in a vain attempt to pick up all the Green Voters who are going to vote for Obama anyway.

Yup. Gotta hand it to Johnnie Mac!!

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

states like Michigan.

The problem here is that the way the special election and the primary for November worked they were held simultaneously. Davis and Childers both won a plurality in their party races (making them nominees for November) and of course the folks that voted for them also voted for them in the special - so they finished 1-2 and made this runoff.

The only way to avoid these special election/general rematches (and we'll have them in IL and LA as well) is to postpone the primary for November until after the special election - but no state wants the expense that comes from holding election after election. Not to mention the fact that turnout goes to crap.

My question is how turnout in these special elections compare to the what can be expected in November. I would expect that these districts will still go for McCain by margins similar to those for W in 2004 - and that will probably lead to some coattails for folks like Davis and Jenkins. In a rematch, changed turnout figures could create different outcomes.

In my lifetime, the following happened:

In 1974 the Democrats won MASSIVE majorities in Congress. And then forced us into utterly abandoning our friends in Indochina to death, torture, or "reeducation." A disastrous decade in many ways. But no, America didn't end, nor did the Republican Party fold up its tent and go home.

In 1982, Democrats won huge margins in the popular vote and reversed Republicans' 1980 gains in the House. End of the Reagan Revolution, it was said, etc., etc.

In 1992--for me the darkest of times--the American people elected a draft-dodging, adulterous President, with large Democratic majorities in Congress, with a seemingly popular plan to socialize medicine.

In 1998, Democrats made modest gains in Congress despite the flagrant perjury of their party leader.

So no, a Democratic victory in November will NOT spell the end for America nor for the Republican Party. It may be bad in many ways, but not "the end."

But you know what, we will retain the White House and only lose a few seats in Congress. (Please quote me only if it actually happens). :)

On the other hand, come 2012, the Dems will be back in the White House.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

if McCain is potus and has huge Dem majorities in congress and they force him to withdrawal from Middle East and everything that goes with that. Then the media pins the results on McCain the GOP i'm guessing.

...the Dems won't have huge majorities. And besides, what the Democrats were unwilling to do against a President Bush with a 30% approval rating they won't dare to try against a President McCain with a 55% approval rating.

Maybe after the 2010 midterms--but if things aren't going well in Iraq by then, it will be hard to convince even hawks to have our military help nation-build.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

We lost the Dems now have 17 seat majority in Congress. We are not heading in right direction. What does this say about other MS open house seat race and AL ones?

If you're going to go around doing your darned best to talk down Republicans, at least stand up and say it rather than just ask leading questions.

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What?

I am tired of some trying to spin these special elections lets get real and stop pretending everything is peachy.

Look, don't take this the wrong way - but rereading this thread? You were almost as darkly gleeful about Davis losing as the most stereotypical netrooter.

I'm not telling you that you can't be. But people aren't going to react well to that, and you're going to very quickly become one of those people who the rest of us sort of skim past when you post if you keep that up.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

How can one not be gloomy when we can't even hold this seat? How are we supposed to take back the swing districts we lost in 2006?

I admire the commitment of you and others to stay positive, but at certain point you have to face reality. This is tough defeat. But fortunately there is a lot of time between now and November, so things could change.

It says that scarce resources will have to be spent on districts which had hitherto been considered safe. This will minimize the ability of the party to regain some of the seats it lost in 2006.

Obviously, you don't take the time to read the daily posts I have on Congressional races. I am one of the posters who tries to have posters focus on these races.

You have a lot damn nerve

Uh, what? Was that meant for Moe?

Yes

Chill guys. Let's not go nuts here. I agree things look bad. And I think there is now virtually no chance of winning back either House (unless 100 Dem incumbents start calling their opponents "macaca"). But there is always 2010. (The Dems had to wait twelve years to win the House back.)

Structurally, 2006 was a good year for us. We should have made Senate gains and pushed for 60. But we threw it away.

2008, on the other hand, was to be structurally bad year for us in both houses. In the Senate, we had a natural regression to the mean coming after having the big year in 2002. In the House, we were going to suffer the raft of retirements that comes with losing the majority, just like the Democrats had after 1994. Heck, we're lucky we didn't get a series of party shifts like they had after 1994.

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What about all the Senate Races out there. Right now McCain is doing rather well against Obama (barely edging out if on a good polling day). If Democrats unite and if something about McCain comes out or he says something really stupid then Republicans are in even worse trouble.

All those house members retiring in swing districts can just be put in the Dem column at this point.

P.S. - Back in the last loss in LA a bunch of people somehow thought that those Obama ads actually helped, well again I hope this finally ends that theory.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

So let me get this straight the people at Kos are indifferent about tonight?

Lets be realistic say this guy votes just 50% of the time with Democrats that is still 49.9% higher than the Republican would of. I know it is late but wake up

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

They won a race. That's what you get to do when your team wins a race: celebrate.

But tomorrow is another day, and we come right back to this in six months' time.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Congressional Campaign committee is still low on money. RNC is probably going to have to financially support McCain. So where is the help going to come from?

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

There are basically three threads right now over at Kos. Celebrating the win in MS-01, celebrating the win of the candidate that most support in the Nebraska senatorial primary and commenting on the fact that West Virginia went more or less as expected...

Also, I think the race that most closely mirrors this one is the MA-5 special election. Like this one, the candidate from the challenging party was viewed as a closer in views to that of the party currently holding the seat, but the choice for the National Party was someone who would vote with you 30-50% of the time, vs the person looking to hold onto the seat who would vote with you less than 5% of the time...

Childers is a backbench weenie.

He'll do what Wasserman-Schultz tells him to do or he won't get so much as a new set of postage stamps for his district! Capiche?

He's a D. They win. We lose.

Best,

Chris

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

WHY KEEP BRINGING BACK UP OBAMA

Stop blaming other people. The media has nothing to do with this. The fact is that independents, moderate Republicans, and conservative Dems think the Republican party has really nothing to offer.

Honestly name 1 new thing that is new that has been said in this campaign season by the leadership that could help reduce oil prices for the long term or deal with healthcare or home foreclosures or blah blah blah blah.

The answer is NOTHING
Then you got the President threatening to veto popular Democratic bills that pisses off people even more. I know he doesn't have to run again but you think the Republican leadership by know would say it is time to save the party.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

If warning voters about him doesn't sway them, then well, they are complicit in Obama's message of hate, and America is in for some trouble.

But we need to try.

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why do people think it will work in the MS-01 election?

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Because McCain already tried to pull those ads. He neutralizing that tactic already

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

OK, here we go, argument #2, on cue.

Did Childers run as a Democrat against a Republican? If so, then tying him to the Democratic standard bearer should work, and this loss could be used as evidence of being Republican being a problem at the moment.

If not, though, and he ran as a southern center-rightist without mentioning party, then yes, trying to tie him to Obama is sure to fail. But it also means this election is no proof that Republican is a bad name, because if he wasn't running on it, then I don't see how it meant anything.

So it can't be both ways. Either tying him to Obama is a good idea, or this is a sign of brand trouble. One or the other.

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