MS-SEN: Rs Ahead In Likely Matchups
Likely GOP hold, but not quite safe
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Some of the most likely MS SEN matchups were polled for Dkos. The results show the Rs in good standing:
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Wicker (R) 47 / 8 / 79 / 48
Musgrove (D) 39 / 78 / 7 / 37
Wicker (R) 46 / 8 / 78 / 47
Moore (D) 39 / 77 / 7 / 37
Pickering (R) 45 / 6 / 78 / 45
Musgrove (D) 39 / 78 / 7 / 37
Pickering (R) 45 / 7 / 77 / 46
Moore (D) 41 / 80 / 8 / 40
Fav/Unfav
Wicker 49 / 17
Pickering 46 / 19
Moore 45 / 27
Musgrove 41 / 28
Moore has said he won't run. Pickering seems an unlikely choose since he declined to run for re-election in 2008 for Congress. Wicker is a likely choose and Musgrave would be the D's best hope. Thus, the Wicker-Musgrave numbers are the most important and the R starts with a 47-39 overall lead, a 48-37 lead with Is, and a Presidential election year to help. Also if Wicker is the candidate then he will likely have been appointed 11 months prior to the election to fill Lott's seat and thus have some incumbency advantage.
Likely R hold.
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MS-SEN: Rs Ahead In Likely Matchups 4 Comments (0 topical, 4 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Don't overstate our strength in Mississippi. There is a strong Democrat base. Two of the four House seats are Democrat. There is a large black population in the state. What this reflects is that the Democrats are having a lot of trouble picking up white votes in the state. They would need to make huge gains there to have any chance.
...if Mississippi goes Dem, that is a 1964-esque Democrat blowout. We'd likely have less than 40 Senators and 150 house members.
There ain't no way the GOP loses Mississippi.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
SI is right - there is still a Democrat presence in Mississippi at the state level.
You are right - if MS went for Democrats at the presidential level, we'd be swamped. And in a presidential year, the natural tendencies in MS should boost the GOP candidate in a Senate race.
Also, I was under the impression that Wicker is a congressman and thus not likely to have quite the name recognition outside his CD that he does inside (as opposed to Musgrove and Moore, who have statewide name recognition given their statewide offices). So his numbers will go up.
Finally, he's not the nominee yet - he's not even the guy Barbour is appointing (said person being as yet unknown as Lott has not yet officially resigned, thus leaving no seat for Barbour to appoint anyone to). Once things come into focus down there and the holidays are over and people are actually paying any attention, we can expect to get "better" poll numbers on the race.
MS should be a very strong Republican seat -- not a "5-6 points, polling under 50% support" kind of seat.
A lot of people have pointed to the Jindal blowout, the closer-than-expected loss in Massachusetts, and the two recent special elections as evidence that Republican fortunes have improved since 2006.
And maybe they have a little bit. But I still think that, no matter what happens with the presidential race, the Dems are going to pick up seats in at least the Senate and possibly the House, too.
I still think the "Republican brand" is in the terlet.