New Hampshire--The Aftermath
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Democrats | New Hampshire | Republicans — Comments (45) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Right in predicting the winner of the GOP race. Massively wrong in predicting the winner of the race on the Democratic side, but in my defense, I did write this. And this. Hillary Clinton is obviously not going away and after the results in New Hampshire, she has no reason to. The race for the Democratic nomination may be a bitter and hard fought one after all. And it is entirely possible that the winner will be bloodied and bruised at the end of the entire process.
The race for the Republican nomination will be hard fought as well. Romney is in serious trouble. Perhaps he can revive his candidacy in Michigan but if he disappoints there, it is hard to see how he will continue. At that point, either it becomes a McCain-Huckabee race or the GOP Powers That Be decide that it is high time for a consensus candidate. In which case, Fred Thompson might--I said "might"--have a second act left in him after all.
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Is Mitt really Pro-Life. I believe I know the answer to this question. Let's look at some facts and review his record as governor.
First, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill passed by the Liberal Massachusetts Legislature. The bill was Vetoed by Governor Mitt Romney, and would would have allowed "The Morning After Pill" to be given to woman after getting pregnant.
Also look at what the angry Pro-Death Baby Killers had to say about Romney's Veto. The link is below.
http://www.prochoicemass.org/news/press/200708231.shtml
The link sums up what N.A.R.A.L. thinks. But screw those sick fools. When those evil clowns do not like you. It's a "good thing".
Then in 2005, Romney did not require private hospitals to enforce private medicial facilities from enforcing, evil acts, as "Planned DeathHood" oh I mean "Planned ParentHood" would have loved. Clink the link below it is sure telling.
http://www.prochoicemass.org/news/press/200512121.shtml
This is not related to Romney, though it would be nice to see how Planned Death Hood reacts, when Romney Slaps them down, by praising the "U.S. Supreme Court" after Rulings come to pass in the Christian Favor" that go against the Pro Baby Killers lobby groups. The link is here.
of the Republican candidates who did not get into the Obamamaia after Iowa. I could have sworn that I heard him say that he felt Clinton would still be the nominee. Is that worth something?
So maybe they'll become Fredhead. But most likely not.
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I just don't buy into the notion that Iowa and New Hampshire will decide who the Republican nominee will be. They haven't decided a nominee since Carter and Ford from what I understand. I don't think they'll decide the Republican nominee now.
This race is far from over and Romney, Thompson, and Guliani are much better candidates than McCain or Huckabee. For either Huckabee or McCain to win will mean that the Republican party has completely lost it's soul, especially McCain. I'm not pleased how the Republicans have been responding in Congress or the White House, but I don't believe they've completely lost their core beliefs yet.
From this point on, the real race for the Republican nomination begins.
I still believe in limited government. And I'm happy we have a candidate who has campaigned against pork-barrel corruption. Because Rs lost their soul when they joined the Pork Party over the past 7 years. It's time to take that soul back.
And just for the record, no R nominee (in the modern era) has lost both IA and NH to my knowledge. I don't think those facts mean much and I think Rudy could still win the nomination. But just since you asked.
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Now that McCain is going to win the nomination, unless a miracle occurs and Conservatives cut Romney some serious slack, we will have a major liberal inaugurated on January 20th 2009 at noon eastern time.
Huckabee is a bible thumper socialist, so where do the Christans go if they decide to "turn on their Brains", go when Huckabee drops out after "super tuesday" ?
We will be left with Rudy Giuliani, and Seanaor JackAss McCain. If we had just used our brains, we could have avoided this mess.
Now if we vote Socialist or Republican, it will result in the same conclusion. If McCain or Giuliani, win the "New Liberal Republican Party" nomination, and end up winning the General Election, think about this for a moment.
Have any of you thought about the fact that if Rudy or John wins the 2008 General Election, what they are going to do if they lose their Re-Election campaigns in 2012 ?
It will mean that after 4 long years of liberal rule from either Rudy or Jackass McCain, if they lose it's too the Democrat. What does this mean ?
It means that either way we are guarteened at least 8 long year of Liberal bull crap. This is why we need to rally around the one we feel is the most close to a Conservative. Like we should have "always done".
Now that stoback Stubaba, is looking less likely to threaten Mitt Romney, Romney can easily Defeat the Hillary Clinton Glass Jaw Candidate. So why pick a liberal Republican, when we can still win with a Conservative ?????
Hillary Clintons win last night solved out problem with Obama. Plan A, is now back on track !!!!!!
when you consider many R's are quite afraid that the D's might win and will back a candidate of any stripe to prevent that from happening - even if they do not agree with that candidates politics. It has become all about electablility rather than principles.
I would rather back the candidate that as closely reflects my beliefs as possible and have him lose than back a candidate that I thought was electable but did not reflect my beliefs.
"Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power". Abraham Lincoln
6% of NH GOP voters said "electability" was their top concern. It was last of the 4 options.
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At that point, either it becomes a McCain-Huckabee race or the GOP Powers That Be decide that it is high time for a consensus candidate.
First just who are those "GOP Powers That Be" who might decide on a consensus candidate. And then if they do, how do those "GOP Powers That Be" get the Republican candidates and primary voters to do anything they wouldn't have done anyway?
I don't buy this. No candidate who believes he still has any hope of being President will back off just because somebody tells him to. Maybe he drops out if he runs out of money or can't can't win anywhere, but not because some "party boss" tells him to. Nor are voters going to give up on their preferred candidates because some supposed king makers order them to support the "consensus" candidate.
That's how. They do it through high profile endorsements that urge the party to come together around a consensus candidate. Sometimes, the tactic succeeds. Other times, it fails. But that's how it is at least tried.
"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." --Friedrich Nietzsche
but I doubt that anybody's endorsement, including by a group of party leaders, can influence a lot of voters. If anything, it might strike a lot of voters as some kind of back room deal, and thus be the kiss of death for whomever they endorse.
Bush? Not with approval ratings in the <40% range (Even if I think they ought to be higher).
Newt? He gets almost as many hate postings when his name is mentioned in these parts as Don Young.
The pundits have all already made their endorsements, or are holding their powder because they don't want to offend any of the candidates who might appear on their talk shows.
When the Republicans lost in 2006, their high profile people disappeared, except for the few who are in the Presidential race.
This is going to be a long drawn out fight. It might even result in a failure to produce a nominee by convention time. Huck won Iowa. McCain won NH. I'm figuring Romney picks up Michigan, and Thompson wins South Carolina. Guiliani probably gets Florida and then comes Super Tuesday with all of them still in the race. If nobody pulls significantly ahead on that day, nobody gets a clear win, and I give that at best a 40% chance.
Like everyone else in the world, I called the Clinton-Obama results incorrectly. Dan Riehl of Riehl World View has a different take. He says:
Interesting: The Comeback that Never Was
"I realize the media narrative will be all about Hillary's incredible comeback in New Hampshire tonight. But there's something worth checking out with the history of RCP polls. Yes, all of the well-known national pollsters had it terribly wrong. But look at the local results over the last week."
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Christoph is a Canadian who wants to emigrate to Australia and has a keen interest in American and world politics, sales, and fitness among other subjects. He's been described as center-right, but his opponents are more apt to call him wrong.
So Suffolk was closest. They were the farthest off in the R race. Their tracking poll had Romney ahead each day this week. I wonder what their sample was like.
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Pejman - I very much enjoy your posts and respect your writing, but how did you arrive at Thompson as the "consensus" candidate? The voters certainly haven't judged him to be the consensus candidate? Why would party leaders do that when there are other candidates who have been so much more successful than Fred?
Good question.
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Christoph is a Canadian who wants to emigrate to Australia and has a keen interest in American and world politics, sales, and fitness among other subjects. He's been described as center-right, but his opponents are more apt to call him wrong.
got a smaller percentage (1%) than write-ins (2%). Maybe you should be pushing for Thompson supporters to help Romney - that is if Romney is acceptable to you.
I think that despite the fact that Romney is deeply wounded, he is still more viable as a candidate than Thompson. McCain makes my stomach churn, Huckabee makes me violently ill.
I would really like Thompson to catch some momentum, I just don't think it's going to happen. I hope Romney wins Michigan but if he doesn't I think it comes down to McCain or Thompson. I would reluctantly support McCain but I cannot support Huckabee in the general PERIOD. I truly hate that man.
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
Well, he did get double the votes of Duncan Hunter — that's an accomplishment!
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Christoph is a Canadian who wants to emigrate to Australia and has a keen interest in American and world politics, sales, and fitness among other subjects. He's been described as center-right, but his opponents are more apt to call him wrong.
Strong dislike okay, But hate is pathetic
NT.
in NH for it. SC is put up or shut up time for Fred...
Guns don't kill people, abortions kill people.
How you can credibly claim that Fred Thompson can still have life in him after Mi if Romney gets a second there. I know it will be a tough road for Mitt if he does get a second, but it's more preposterous to think a guy who got a third in IA, less votes than Kucinich in NH, and who knows what in MI, can be a consensus candidate for the powers that be.
I would be happy if Fred or Giuliani got if Mitt does indeed drop out before they do, but right now, I can't credibly see that scenario.
that one hears on TV so much.
"How you can credibly claim that Fred Thompson can still have life in him after MI if Romney gets a second there."
The life of Fred Thompson's campaign is NOT dependent on how Romney does in Michigan. The life of Fred Thompson's campaign is dependent on how he does in South Carolina.
As much as our mindset wants to turn the election into a the bracketed competition of March Madness, the election doesn't really work that way.
nt
I'm not so sure that I'd put too much stock in a primary that lets registered Democrats vote in the Republican primary as does Michigan does, either. It's a completely open primary.
This really favors the liberals in our party. I have no idea why New Hampshire and Michigan do this It completely opens the system to manipulation.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
but most seem to lack faith in his ability to win. Someone please reconcile those two for me. Why are people going with Mitt or someone else when they prefer Fred? I think Pejman IS right; Fred can be a "consensus" candidate if others threaten to split the party or spend gazillions only to land 2nd or 3rd everywhere. Fred hardly campaigned in NH and Mitt spent an obscene amount; Fred looks way better as a result. I'm fully prepared to vote for Mitt if he's the nominee but I won't vote for him in my NY primary. My money and my vote are with Fred. Hedging bets is fine but there's a whole lotta cynicism goin' on around here. Too much saying you like one guy but are voting for another.
What does Mitt do if he spends tens of million$ and can't land first place anywhere? What does the GOP do if it looks like McCain, Giuliani or (heaven forbid) Huckabee? A McCain-Huck scenario is bound to repel many in this party, believe me. A few failures for high profile candidates and a little groundswell of support for the most principled conservative in the field and who knows what might happen.
Sorry if not fully coherent -- I've been up all night working.
GO FRED!
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
I am very upset that Liberal John McCain was the winner of New New Hampshire last night. I was pleasanly surprised that Hillary Clinton Won though. Now that ol Hillary Clinton is "Back in the Game? shouldwe reconsider our options ?
I say yes. Hillary Clinton is going to be an "EASY KILL" in the General Election. So knowing this, why pick John McCain anymore ?
I say now that Barack Obama is not as big of a threat to Mitt Romney, why settle on a Liberal, Amnesty, Close GITMO, against the Bush TAX CUTS, wishy washy, Arizona Senator named John McCain ?
1) How funny to call it Romney's "demise." Romney has won more delegates than McKennedy. Mitt has won more votes than McKennedy. Romney has won more Republican votes than McFeingold. Romney has won more conservative votes than McAmnesty.
2) Rush Limbaugh is right - McCain is no conservative. And how can we let a bunch of independents decide who the conservative nominee is? Weird, but, what do you expect from the "pundits?"
3) In fact, the real story is "McKennedy's IMPLOSION." He won 49% of N.H. primary in 2000. Today, McAmnesty won only 37%. That's a LOSS of 25%!!! After all, McFeingold is the president of N.H. (a blue state) and he could not win 50%.
4) McKennedy reminds me of Bob Dole - (a) an old, old guy; (b) a Senator, (c) a RINO, (d) a war veteran. And he led us to a disaster. If the Republicans want another disaster, nominate McKennedy.
Fred hasn't even tried yet. He's been waiting for SC. He connected with people in the Rep party when he got in and he will again. All he has to do is hit the MSM airways hard with his conservative message and record as well as the ground in SC. He was winning at one time in SC so I don't think it's going to be hard to win those people back to his cause especially with everything that's happened thus far.
with his 1.2% finish in NH I don't know how he can evan catch up with Romney let alone the Huckster. He has over 23 point to make up in a week and a half. There are just too many evangelicals to catch up. No matter how hard you campaign you can not take them from their annointed leader. Romney proved that the harder you try the less likely they are to listen to reason. My hopes for a fiscal/immigration/SCOTUS conservative were resting on the shoulders of Romney, Rudy & Thompson but Tompson's chances are fading faster than anyone elses. Our last hope is a brokered comvention and the possibility of a Newt nomination at the convention.
He looks at it the way I did, just much more positively. Romney needed to win early to break the national lead of Rudy. Well, that happened without the winning. Romney is not where he would like to be, running away with this, but he is where he needs to be, and with some continued big showings down the road he can win this thing. He is the tourtise in this race, and steady may be all it takes this year. MI will be important as will SC.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
I think Romney beating McCain could be considered a victory given SC's 50% evangelical population. The kool-aide runs deep there.
insulting a critical part of the base is no way to win votes.
And for the record, my current preference is Thompson. I think he actually has a more substantial record than Romney. Romney is my second choice, because being from Taxachuessetes, he might not have had better options for stuff he signed off on. My druthers would be with Tancredo, but he never passed the electable threshold.
Current delegate count:
Romney: 24 (He got more in WY than McCain did in NH last night!)
Huckabee: 18
McCain: 10
Thompson: 6
I wouldn't count Romney out, nor cast dirt on his second place finishes. It's kept him at the top of the delegate count until now. If the races keep getting shared between 3 or 4 candidates, Romney maybe winning even just Nevada but coming in a strong second in other places like he has been doing, he would STILL probably be leading come Feb 5. And he has enough $$$ to advertise in all those Super Tuesday states. Who knows, this might go all the way to the convention.
who at this point have a realistic shot at the nomination.
The aftermath for me is that I'm overloaded and depressed.
How McCain and Huckabee can be our "leaders" are beyond me.
I have some hope that we will settle on Romney, but I need a week or so off.
Maybe I'll come back after Michigan.
Considering making the drive up to South Carolina to make calls for Fred or Mitt.
while you are at it.
"It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities." ~Professor Dumbledore
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
Mitt Romney would add nothing to the ticket. He will not carry Massachusetts.
I think McCain could do very well in the west which is trendhing Democrat and he could have Arizona pinned down for us and do well in Colorado and Nevada too.
Its all about electable to me.
Hello? Wyoming? Leading in Nevada? Sure to win UT? Likely to win ID? Granted, those places ain't California, but they are "the west."
Romney currently has the most delegates of any of the GOP candidates.
FDT got killed in Iowa and came in last in NH, but Fred still "might" have a "second act".
LOL.
Not only were the polls wrong on the NH primary but so were the initial exit polls. One possible reason not heard in the MSM is New Hampshire’s same day voter registration law. How can you rely on opinion polls when anyone can change their party voter registration or even register to vote on the day of the election. This is a new argument against same day voter registration laws, they mess up the exit poll statistical models and the polls as well. They allow a constantly changing electorate vulnerable to potential voter fraud up until the last minute. The shifting of independents from the Democrat to the Republican contest (probably based on polls showing Obama winning easily while the GOP race was tightening) caused Obama to go down while McCain went up.
Also part of the problem with having only one exit poll is that you get a very limited view of what happened in the election. For example, no one thought to include a question on the impact of the usually conservative Manchester Union Leader’s endorsement of John McCain and the constant media assault from the NH press on Romney. If the Manchester Union Leader had stuck to its original mission of helping the most viable conservative candidate then McCain might have lost. Exit polls reflect the bias of the person who makes up the questions so they are usually slanted to a MSM liberal viewpoint.
Fred Thompson needs to REALLY get going or "it's curtains" for him!
http://osi-speaks.blogspot.com/2008/01/hillary-clinton-spoils-my-perfect...
With malice towards none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see right.