Obama Overtakes Hillary In Texas
Get The Fork Ready
By California Yankee Posted in 2008 | Democrats | Hillary Clinton | Texas — Comments (47) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It's starting to look like next Tuesday could be Hillary's last stand.
A new CNN /Opinion Research poll finds Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton Texas 50%-46%. In a similar poll taken a week before, Hillary held a 50%-48% lead.
Keep in mind these numbers are within the polls sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, so statistically, the race is a virtual tie.
The poll was conducted February 22-24.
Even Bill Clinton concedes that a loss in Texas or Ohio would doom Hillary's candidacy:
"If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. It's all on you," the former president told the audience at the beginning of his speech.
Yesterday, Hillary advisor Harold Ickes, "dropped a hint that March 4 will produce a decision point":
"I think if we lose in Texas and Ohio, Mrs. Clinton will have to make her decisions as to whether she moves forward or not," he said. He paused, then added: "as she has at the end of every other state."
According to the Houston Chronicle, Ickes would not go as far as Bill Clinton and proclaim Texas and Ohio must-win states:
"I wouldn't want to fly in the face of President Clinton," Ickes said. "What I will say is it is important that she do very, very well."
There is still a week before the Texas primary, but unless Hillary pulls off one of those miracles Mike Hukabee is still looking for, we can stick the fork in this campaign.
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I almost can't believe after nearly 15 years of despising Hillary and Bill Clinton that I'm also hoping she will win tonight. One of my more hard-core conservative friends is seriously considering changing his party registration so he can vote for Obama during the PA primary just to help beat Clinton. When I argued with him that it was more in our interest to see her alive and fighting a while longer to run a scorched earth campaign with Obama, he just simply stated that the woman is like a vampire. He's convinced that if her political ambitions aren't staked in the heart, she could wind up winning.
I'm not convinced he's right, so I'm with you in rooting for Clinton wins tonight in OH and TX. Either way, it's definitely going to be a fun night. Break out the popcorn!
It will be tough to sustain that energy until the actual elections take place...next week.
I can't believe I'm rooting for Hillary either. McCain is really far ahead of Huckabee, so I'll be voting for Hillary during the day and again when we caucus in the evening. Gotta Love Texas!
...this should be good for another round of negative ads. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
IMO, she hasn't gone after him nearly enough. At least not on his lack of substance.
regret not kicking him to the curb good immediately after Super Tuesday.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Look at the report from The Politico [H/T: Drudge]:
Top aides also are frustrated over the handling of a media uproar Monday regarding a photograph of Obama in traditional African dress during a visit to Kenya. It appeared splashed on the Drudge Report with the accusation that it was “circulated” by “Clinton staffers” over the weekend.
The debate over whether to deny responsibility or simply decline comment consumed the campaign at a moment when its remaining days to trip Obama’s sprint to the nomination are in single digits.
Emphasis mine. See, this shows that down at the bottom of it all, it's still the same Clinton organization it always has been. All is swell, depending on what the meaning of the word "is" is. ;)
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I just don't get it. Every single poll (literally, every one) shows Hillary is much easier to beat than Obama. So just for that reason alone, a vote for Hillary is the proper one for our side.
Plus, if a Democrat is going to win (which is likely), Hillary is slightly less liberal than Obama. So again, Hillary is the smart vote.
And, yet, I still know Republicans who voted for Obama just to destroy the Clintons. Many freepers seem to have this blind hatred of Hillary, as well. This is just bizzare to me.
I didn't know Republicans voted for Democratic primary choices...
Except in Bill Clinton's overcompartmentalized psyche, that is...
In any case, the Democrats are voting for who is going to be their nominee. I think in large measure what's happening is that Republicans are just sitting back and watching the show...
Imagine: A guy with practically no political experience to speak of, with a campaign message that reads like something from a Harry Potter novel mixed with Winnie the Pooh and the X Files, warmed over by David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg, and served to the American people with halos and cotton candy platitudes -- is beating the Greatest Politician of the 20th Century, Bill Clinton and his Wife.
It's like watching Apollo kill Starbuck and get all the girls on Battlestar Galactica or something...
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I live in one of the most conservative counties in the state (Waukesha). But in the recent primary, there were roughly an equal number of votes cast in the Republican and Democrat primaries due to the high crossover. The problem is that much of the crossover vote went for Obama, which is what I have a huge problem with.
If you don't belive in voting in the opposition's primary, fine, I can understand that. But if you do crossover, don't vote for the guy who is much, much tougher a matchup. And don't vote for the guy who would make a worse President.
Bush derangement syndrome and Clinton derangement syndrome must be strains of the same virus. Hillary Clinton is the best friend Republicans have right now. The sooner she gets out of the race, the sooner all that Obama fundraising money will be used to launch broadsides against McCain, which he doesn't have the funds to counter.
I am just fundamentally dense and have a brain-block when it comes to people voting in the opposition's primary. I just don't understand why it's allowed, first of all. Never made any sense to me, and I've never done it.
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There are some times when it's warranted; after all, if it wasn't for Republicans voting in the Dem House primary here in Georgia, we wouldn't have gotten rid of Cynthia McKinney, twice.
In that case, though, that district is so deep blue that no Republican will likely ever be elected from it, so the Dem primary there really is the deciding election.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Never quite understood it myself although I have thought of crossing over to vote for Hillary (since she is far behind). Actually, you are right of course, it shouldn't be allowed.
Like you, have never done it...but this year is tempting...heh.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I very seriously doubt there's anything Republicans could or should do to influence the process by which the Democrats are eating their own and sweeping them into the dustbin of history. I think by and large that each side chooses its own team. If anything, the Democrat-controlled media has been more responsible for ObamaPhenoma than anything Republicans could do.
We are going to play with the hand we're dealt, but it's their game on their side of the Ditch right now.
Neither side will have enough delegates to win the nomination.Even if Hillary drops out she needs to release her delegates.I just dont see her dropping out.I think she hangs on to the convention and then all eyes will be on the super delegates.I think Clinton just needs to keep splitting the delegates with Obama,its going to come down to the superD's.A deadlocked convention would be fun to see.Obama is heading into troubled waters with his pal Tony Rezko embroiled in a Federal corruption case that includes alot of Chicago pol's including Obama.Alot of time yet.
If Hillary loses either Texas or Ohio she withdraws. As power hungry as she is - she knows the only way to get the nomination after losing Texas or Ohio is to convince a significant majority of super-delegates to pick her even though Obama leads with regular delegates AND, more significantly in my book, has garnered far mor primary/caucus votes.
I simply do not believe when it comes down to it that the Clintons will throw Obasma in front of the freight train of a floor fight at the convention that they will almost certainly lose even if they try it.
I know we all have wet dreams of Democrats killing each other in the streets of Denver while Hillary and Bill highjack Superdelegates at gun point - but that will not happen. Hillary will annouce she is done on March 5th.
It is also interesting that the GOP/conservatives have contributed significantly to Hillary's defeat by hammering her and ensuring her negatives were sky high which scared off many undecided liberals. If we lose to Obama we certainly screamed for him to be the Dem nominee.
The ironic thing is how many GOP'rs now wish Clinton was President if a Democrat wins in November.
Her campaign is convinced that Obama will implode before the convention. They will stay in the race until the very end. She has nothing to gain from withdrawing.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
And by "they're" I mean the people who want Clinton out. I think that it's beginning to dawn on them that it's in Hillary's best interest to keep Obama on the campaign grindstone.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
I'll make a gentlemans wager with you that she withdraws on March 5th or 6th if she loses Texas or Ohio.
She will realize the Superdelegate path is a non-starter and want to preseve her chance for 2012 should Obama lose the GE.
If she fights to the bloody death in Denver she almost certainly not win anyway, AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, will permanently soil the chances of a future run in 2012 or 2016.
Using a risk -v- reward analysis I think the decision is clear - if Texas or Ohio go for Barack she's out within 48 hours.
on things that I don't believe will happen.
I don't believe:
If she fights to the bloody death in Denver she almost certainly not win anyway, AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, will permanently soil the chances of a future run in 2012 or 2016.
is the case.
What I said was that she'll stay in the race because there is a feeling that Obama will implode
She doesn't have to engage in a floor fight. She simply needs to hold onto her pledged delegates until the convention.
BTW, she is certainly smart enough to know that she is a non-entity in 2012 regardless of the outcome this year.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
Obama stiffs, stifles national press. Which will be spectacular for us, if they decide to wait until after Tuesday to start pushing back. For that matter, if they don't decide to wait, that's just fine too. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
From your linked article:
"But in general, the candidate's time is better spent with the local press, said Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director.
"The truth is, in a lot of these little communities, most people are going to get information from their most local media source," Gibbs said.
It's also true that press conferences with national media tend to veer into areas that do not necessarily underscore the campaign's message of the day. The focus is often not on issues like the economy or health care, but on process and punditry, which campaigns loathe."
I think this is probably a smart strategy (for now) on Obama's part, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
this is nonsense because local media only cover the races in detail when a candidate is in town where the national media cover them all the time.
We've had two presidents in a row come into the White House convinced that they could go around the national media to the regional media. Both proved it is just too labor intensive and that the regional media get their themes from the major national media.
This works in a primary where you are only dealing with a handful of states at a time. It falls flat on its face in national campaign or when in office.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
Well, we will find out soon enough if the strategy is foolhardy or clever. I have a feeling his campaign is more carefully crafted than some would think.
Whatever she may say publicly, Hillary knows the superdelegates will not swing things in the face of the popular vote. Can you name any superdelegates that have come out for Hillary Clinton since the run started for Obama? Her net superdelegate haul since then is negative.
You say she should hold onto her delegates. Why? What does it get her? Unless you can show something that demonstrates that she would actually have a chance...pipe dreams of an Obama implosion don't count...the only motivation for that is to bring down Democrats in general. She may resent the fact that Obama gets to be president and not her, but if it's between Obama and McCain, she'll vote Obama just the same.
You obviously won't find her saying that today because of the remaining glimmer of hope that she could win everything but Vermont on Tuesday and retake some momentum, but she will accept reality if (when) she loses Ohio and/or Texas.
pipe dreams of an Obama implosion don't count.
Unless someone died and made you Pope you don't have the ability to rule out what the papers are reporting the Clinton campaign belives.
Can you name any superdelegates that have come out for Hillary Clinton since the run started for Obama?
Non sequitur. Her pledged delegates equal Obama's and if Obama's star fades before Denver the superdelegate toll is in flux. If she concedes and gives him her delegates the superdelegates don't matter and he wins regardless of what happens in the meantime.
but if it's between Obama and McCain, she'll vote Obama just the same.
Got a cite for this factoid?
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
"Her pledged delegates equal Obama's . . . ."
According to RCP, pledged delegates are 1193 for Obama to 1038 for Clinton. That's a bigger lead than the entire Ohio pledged delegation.
As much as we would all love a McCain-Clinton matchup, it's becoming increasing unlikely and we'll do better to prepare for that eventuality sooner rather than later.
RCP: 1193/1038
CNN: 1126/1021
The Green Papers: 1129.5/1009.5
MSNBC: 1192/1036
And every group up there can justify their pledged total. It all works out to somewhere around 34% for Obama, 31% for Hillary, with 33% of the pledged delegates yet to be chosen. It looks good for Obama, but he won't hit 50%[*] of the total delegates with out getting 75% or so of the remaining pledged.
Should Hillary drop next week if she loses TX? Yes, for her Party's sake (not for hers: I can easily see a scenario where she wins the general, and the Democrats lose the House). Will she? Depends on how an opinion she has of the Democratic base, and how likely they'll stand for being kicked to the side by the Establishment. Said base is certainly claiming that they won't stand for it this go-round.
Mind you, they always do.
[*Let me correct this: his percentage goes down to 66% if you factor in his existing super-delegates, and no other super-delegates jump. So, it really does come down to the 380 or so that haven't decided yet.]
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Are you saying that the base supports Obama and will stand "as they always do" for being kicked to the side of the road?
Are you also saying that if Hillary respects the base that she will step aside after losing Texas or Ohio?
If you are my view is I agree that the base is for Obama. I also believe that she will step aside whether she respects the base or not because she will decide not to be branded as being the person that split the party in a bloody fight.
...in Denver then the base will scream, holler, rage - and then end up meekly supporting her as the candidate.
This is merely my opinion, of course, and one based on a gestalt observation of their online behavior for the last six years. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Everyone knows that the pledged delegates alone won't put anyone over the top. You're not saying anything new here.
The question is, will the large MAJORITY of undecided superdelegates go for Hillary if Obama goes in with a 100-200 (or more) delegate lead? Given the commitments and defections from Hillary that have taken place in the last few weeks, it seems unlikely.
Which is why I believe Hillary steps down after a loss in Texas or Ohio (and I believe it will be both states).
For those who say she will stay in it even if she loses Texas or Ohio in case Obamam "implodes" - I think they're fooling themselves.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
Tell us about the first fifty on the undecided list, explaining each one's motivations, ideology, and how Obama's going to get them to commit. Describe each individually, of course - and be sure to include the counter-arguments for each.
We can expect that by 1 PM, right? Since you have the information already in your head, you should be able to rattle it all off in half an hour and still take a full lunch break.
Moe Lane
PS: No, I don't actually expect him to do that. He's like the rest of us: a guy on the Internet stating opinion as fact. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
That because I can't specifically account for every delegate, that they will all vote Clinton? Or might?
Sure, anything's possible. I guess that's what you want to hear?
Empirical evidence (delegates that have declared/switched recently) suggests that, as pledged delegate momentum goes one way, so too does the superdelegate loyalty. Now that will not hold true for everyone, but it's tough to envision a scenario where Obama continues to win most of the pledged delegates, but superdelegates flock to Clinton in larger and larger numbers.
It is my OPINION (happy now?) that Democratic superdelegates as a group would be willing to indulge your fantasy of facing off against Clinton instead of the much tougher Obama, despite the obvious damage it would do to the party.
...as statements of fact; nice to see that you're willing to admit otherwise. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democrat...
Still, I won't believe she's out until I see the stake driven through the heart. :)
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
Further polling from Tuesday noted at RCP show that we have no better an idea what's going on then we did on Monday. CNN has Obama up 4, but PPP has a tie, and Insider Advantage has it at +1. I think all we can really say is, who will do a better job getting people to the primary polls?
Whether Clinton drops out really depends on the results, not just the win-loss. If she wins Ohio by say 4 or 5 points (Survey USA from today has her up 6 there), and loses TX by 1 or 2 (as could be the case), while splitting RI and VT she is still in the game - especially since she continues to be able to claim that, more often than not, the primary contests are showing she wins where Democrats need to win (OH, FL, MI, NJ). I don't see why a very close result in TX with a win in OH doesn't give her enough to stay in until Pennsylvania. PA is much more like OH than TX, so a win in OH would be even more reason to stay in until PA, all the while working to pick up superdelegates.
Whatever happens, Clinton will stay in and hold her delegates because they will give her power at the convention to insure that the Clinton machine is taken into account and gets the proper amount of "respect," and probably to insure that the platform works for her should she think about another run (and mind you a McCain win in November would almost assure that she'll be in the mix for 2012 as people go back and say that "maybe we should have gone with experience").
Call it Clinton Derangement Syndrome if you want, but I think at the end of the day, Obama is going to probe to be more beatable, and more apt to run a clean campaign. Let's remember which family we're talking about people, this isn't big bad Barry beating up that poor nice little woman from New York. These are the Clintons we're talking about, the single handedly most ruthless, powerhungry and unethical, corrupt family that the White House has ever seen. Obama right now is ahead of McCain in a few polls, the ones that sruvey likely voters like Gallup and Rasmussen gives McCain the edge. The thign is-its only going to get better for us with McCain/Obama. When we get to the general and Obama has to start defending his record, we are going to see McCain expand on his lead as Obama gets exposed as the McGovern liberal that he is. Like it or not, Hillary is perceived as a moderate, adn has been careful not to tack too hard to the left, whereas Obama has been running a full sprint to the Left wign all the way to the nomination. I hope he drives the wicked witch and her little dog Bubba too ojut of politics forever. They are a pox on the Presidency, and I would like to have a clean elecetion with a clear debate on the issues, no mealy mouthing and triangulation trash from the First family of Corruption.
"Do not yield. Do not flinch. Stand up. Stand up with our President and fight. We're Americans. We're Americans, and we'll never surrender. They will."-John McCain
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
Hillary is despised by a good portion of the electorate and they would vote for anybody before her.
Obama is despised by very few and even if some come to disagree with his policies, that doesn't translate into the energy to volunteer and donate that an opponent named Hillary Clinton brings.
It's just a fact. Hillary is an easier (but not easy by any means) opponent than Obama. The rank and file GOP-ers have a death wish if they want to run against the guy.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/feb%2021-25%20bloomberg%20la%20...
McCain 44, Obama 42
McCain 46, Clinton 40
All this with a troubling number:
Q14. Republican primary voters who say they are unhappy with McCain as the nominee:
Vote for McCain 28
Vote for another party's candidate 31
Stay home and not vote 20
Not sure 21
McCain does well because of National Security and the War:
- among independents McCain leads Obama 54-30 on who would be best at handling the situation in Iraq and 58-13 on who would be best at protecting the country from terrorism.
I agree with you that Hilarry would be an easier opponent, can win this thing as long as we do three things:
- Get to work and solidify our base.
- Get to work and show the country who Obama really is, in spite of his speechs: a left-wing liberal, who stands for unacceptable positions on abortion, taxes and defense. And a partisan guy, who deeply contrats with McCain's "my Country above my party".
- Vote for Hillary in the coming primaries to keep the democrats fighting themselves.
I agree that Hillary would be a much easier opponent, but to say we're doomed is nonsense.
The general election is 8 months away. 8 months ago, Hillary had 20-30 leads over Obama, and Giuliani had double digit leads over his GOP opponents. Jimmy Carter had a big lead on Ronald Reagan early in 1980, and of course Michael Dukakis had the famous 17 point lead on H. W. Bush.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
that are coming that will help to unmask the Obama cult. I doubt that he can withstand more than a month after becoming the Democrat nominee. Keep the faith.
Yes, the MSM are way to PC to attach him or his non-policies, but they can not continue to ignore factual statements by his opponent (McCain)...
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
Can't believe I am rooting for her.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777