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Schadenfreude! Schadenfreude! Schadenfreude!

By Ben Domenech Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Redstate Roundtable — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

So, this email thread got interesting, and we thought rather than rewriting it into four diaries, we'd just share it with all of you.

Read on for a special appearance from Al Gore:

Dan McLaughlin

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

Attached is a rough back-of-the-hand I did, which I'm sure rests on some faulty assumptions...that said, it's not that hard to see how this can really drag out now that Hillary's back in the game.

Thomas Crown

It's simply phenomenal how the bigger the population of the State, the better Hillary! does.

What this suggests about Kitten's chances against the big, mean John McCain ... let's just say I'm pretty comfy however this comes down.

Dan McLaughlin

That's triply true if you look at the non-black, non-Republican population. Obama has done well in only a few significant swing-state primaries - VA, WI, & MO.

Ben Domenech

The longer this goes on, how likely is it that Obama turns to Gore?

Dan McLaughlin

I'm seriously wondering how they end this thing. You would think some party elder statesmen could sit them down and plead for a unity ticket - but who has the stature? Bill and Ted K, and they are already on opposite sides. Lord knows, nobody will listen to Dean, and I assume Harry and Nancy will not be fool enough to get in the middle of this, especially Reid when it's two members of his caucus. That leaves Gore and Jimmuh.

They seriously went into this thing without a viable exit strategy. I can't possibly see now how either of them drops out before Puerto Rico June 7, unless something gigantic happens (indictment, assassination) - and even after that, if neither has enough delegates bolted down and Hillary is lobbying to get FL & MI seated and there's a bribe-fest going on with the superdelegates, how do you end it? Seriously, if I was a Dem I'd be despondent right now. This is lunacy. It's like college football before the BCS when the two polls picked different champs.

The identity politics thing is what makes a unity ticket so problematic - neither group wants to see that their representative was told to settle for the #2 job.

Man, it's gonna be Christmas every day for the next 3-5 months. But really: does anybody foresee a practical way for them to settle this thing before the convention?

Thomas Crown

One has to suck it up and yield. Seriously, that's the only way. There's no one to lobby either side who, as y'all note, isn't already invested or so despised by one or the other as to make their lobbying counterproductive. There's no incentive for either side to yield: Obama still has the lead and has crazy cash; this is Hullary's one chance (no typo), she's not short on bling, and she's got aces up her sleeve like mad. I know we're not supposed to talk about how women look as they age, but that woman has shed some serious telomeres, and they're not growing back. Both have burned a lot of bridges in their own party to get where they are.

Who takes the #2 slot? The harridan with no chance of ever being President once she's #2, unless Kitten is offed? Or the once-in-a-lifetime running lightweight who clearly doesn't enjoy actually being asked questions, and seriously doesn't want to have to go through this again?

This is so awesome. And do you know what's even more awesome? I was right. I'm usually only right about general elections at the Presidential level. I have an ok feel, but not a great one, for R primaries; but I once famously opined, in the same campaign season, that there was no way that boring guy from Arkansas or the wooden board made flesh would ever get their Party's nod for the Presidency. But this time, after I got over being wrong about Hillary steamrolling Kitten out of the box, I've actually been right. I'm basking in the rarity.

Adam C

It's possible for Obama to end it by winning WY big, MS big and winning PA. It doesn't guarantee she will drop out, but the pressure will start and Super Delegates might start trying to settle it. But that means 6 more weeks at the least. If Hillary can win PA then I agree that she has every incentive to hold out for PR and argue over MI/FL.

The question is when do party elite / Super Delegates throw in the towel and move en masse to Obama. If Hillary keeps it close enough, they don't bolt. If he had won OH/TX, they would have bolted. Perhaps a PA win does it. After that, I'm not sure when it happens.

Thomas Crown

I don't think he wins PA. I really don't.

Adam C

If Hillary was up 130 delegates I think talking Obama into the VP would be easy. He gets "experience" and gets to be the presumed frontrunner in 2012 or 2016. But since he's ahead that doesn't make sense. And as you point out, this is her only chance so the VP just won't do.

Thomas Crown

Nope. Were I in his shoes, I wouldn't dare take that -- no freaking way he recreates the conditions on the ground he has right now. How's he gonna run for change against his old boss, except for the slight way all former veeps do? Bush will have been out of office for years, and the nutters with cash on the left won't be itching to scratch some hate in 2012 or 2016.

It's now for all the marbles, and would be even if she were up 130.

God's sweet and immaculate mercy, there are times when I love this game.

Mike Krempasky

Besides, he becomes the red shirted ensign at that point.

Mark Kilmer

They promise everyone that the magic powder will descend of the unruly delegates and all will be well "before we reach that point." I hope not.

Either way, the race is over and has been for a while. We know who the next nominee will be -- begins with B, rhymes with fairy -- but Hillary is "back in the game" only insofar as she can try to claim she is with a straight face.

Dan McLaughlin

1. Obama has to win PA big to have a last chance at a KO. And I don't see how he wins big there; I think she's still very likely to beat him in PA with six weeks to bring him into the mud.

2. MS & WY don't matter. Everyone who is paying attention to this race expects BO to win them and win them easily.

3. If BO can't win the nomination, why risk going down in flames as VP? His wiser bet if he loses either the nomination or the general is to run for IL-GOV in 2010, which he takes in a walk (Blago is toast on a stick) and come back in 4-8 years as the older, wiser more moderate Obama. Don't think the press wouldn't love that.

Mark Kilmer

In Pennsylvania, the Philly dead will vote. Governor Ed, who manages the Philly dead, is a Hillary fan.

If Obama can motivate the AA vote, though, he could win by double digits. Who cares, though? It's not going do anything to the delegate count; Barry's lead is too large to surpass with the remaining pool, especially when it will be divvied proportionally.

Neil Stevens

Yes but at the same time, his lead isn't large enough that he can
actually win it outright. Until you get that magic 50% + 1, you don't
have anything.

Adam C

My take on Hillary strategy: Her goal is to make it close enough she can call it a virtual tie and then convince Super Ds to vote their "heart." To do that she needs to be leading in at least one of these categories (in order of likelihood): delegate count including MI/FL, total vote including MI/FL, total delegate count including Supers, popular vote, pledged delegates. Note, Obama has a 135 pledged delegate lead, a 90ish total delegate lead, and a 580,000 vote lead. Including FL, the total vote margin is 300,000.

The biggest variable left that I see is PR. Historically it has been winner take all by tradition. If Hillary can win all 55 of those she puts the total delegate lead under 40 and the pledged delegate lead under 80.

If she wins PA by a OH-like 10 or more points and she wins PR solidly then she could be within the margin where MI/FL and Super Delegates will decide the election. That has to be her strategy. Make it where neither wins outright and Super Ds / MI/FL matter.

Moe Lane

According to this she actually edges him on the popular vote (that's
w/Florida & Michigan):

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D.phtml

And actually, that site illustrates the problem that the Democrats are
having, right there. Do you know why nobody has the same delegate
count going? It's because nobody can agree on how to report the
results. Those 67 Texas delegates from the caucus, frex? They won't
be decided until *June*. They can estimate, but the delegates aren't
actually chosen yet. This normally doesn't matter.

There's a lot about this race that normally doesn't matter.

Mark I

No way there is a unity ticket. Hillary HAS to have the top slot, and she's not secure enough to have a number two who is at least as big a star. Obama doesn't want Hill/Bill in the number two slot causing mischief. He'd rather have her in the Senate doing that where at least he can dilute her with 45-50 other Dems. Besides Hill at number 2 does her no good. After eight years of Obama as president, she'd likely be too old to run.

Also, Obama has based his entire campaign on the fact the Hillary is old Washington and voted for the war. I see no way that he can join forces with her at number two and keep his image as a non-politician. Pigs, mud, and all that.

No, I don't see it. This is going to be a death match. The only way this gets settled without a decapitation is if Obama gets out of the way. He's young enough and has enough appeal that he that he could drop out for the sake of the party and run virtually unopposed in four or eight years.

Adam C

Moe, I don't think anyone buys the popular vote including MI/FL as is. That's because it would be Hillary 325,000, Obama 0. No one is buying that. The FL vote totals are realistic enough she can act like they are real, MI is not.

Pejman Yousefzadeh

I agree with the general consensus that if Obama wins PA, the
superdelegates can work to force Hillary out. But as others have said,
I am not sure that he can win PA, especially with the events of last
night in the rearview mirror. The only scenario I can envision short
of that that would bring all of this to an end is if the
superdelegates mass and collectively tell one candidate to stand down.
And since when are Democrats that organized?

I am actually beginning to think that we have a good chance of winning
this election. And many of you know that this is a big step for me.