SEN-NJ: Estabrook (R) drops bid; Pennacchio (R) likely nominee
"Health" ends self-funder's bid
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
ex-Chair of the NJ Chamber of Commerce Anne Estabrook was seen as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination to compete against 80+ year old Frank Lautenberg (D). However, Hotline ($) is reporting:
PolitickerNJ.com's Pizarro reports: "Citing health reasons," developer/ex-NJ Chamber Anne Evans Estabrook (R) "is dropping her bid..."
With the 4/7 filing deadline "fast approaching, it is possible" that another GOPers could enter the race. State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos (R) "mulled a late entrance into the race last month, but decided against a statewide bid."
"Another potential self-funder, businessman Joseph Plumeri, could also emerge as a candidate"
NJ has been a tempting state in recent years for the Rs but they have fallen short in SEN and GOV races by a few points (3-5). Lautenberg has low re-elect numbers and McCain polls well in NJ. A strong candidate is needed in NJ even if the odds are less than 50%. A strong GOP showing needs a realistic candidate to be able to win. This is similar to Ds having Webb ready in case Allen made a dumb statement. Rs need a realistic candidate in case Lautenberg has a "senior moment." Pennacchio seems to be a reasonable candidate in this vein, but Estabrook had the ability to pay for the expense media markets in NJ.
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SEN-NJ: Estabrook (R) drops bid; Pennacchio (R) likely nominee 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I think the Ds 50 state strategy is a good idea. One big reason is that uncontested races means Rs miss an opportunity to move the dialog and win over some marginal voters. Even a loss in NJ gives Rs a chance to talk about certain issues, win over some voters, and be there in case an opportunity arises.
We need the same in SD, AR, WV, and MT.
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that Lautenberg should be reminded again that he made an issue of Millicent Fenwick's age (72) when he ran against her in 1982.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
you need someone who can stake out a few issues and hammer away at them.
Christie Whitman almost beat Bill Bradley in 1990 because she tied him to the Florio tax hikes. If a Republican wanted to have a chance in 2008, he'll need to do something similar with Lautenberg and Corzine.
The State party tried to connect Lautenberg with the unpopular toll hike plan, but so far, Lautenberg has taken a cautious anti-Corzine plan stance.
from what I've seen of him. Although I think the perception there is that he is a perennial candidate (then again so was Oberwiess, my district's (R) candidate) and that he can't finance like Estarbrook. Even so, the three candidate's name recognition (well, two now) were very similar, and none of them were very high. Maybe a good primary will get some coverage and up the name recognition.
I think his association with Paul is going to hurt him. OTOH, I think Rs should be welcoming some big L Libertarians to run for office as Rs. A former NM GOV fit that bill. Paul as a REP is another. Murray would be a good example, but right now support from Paul is probably more harmful in a primary than helpful.
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of Estarbrook. Isn't she pro-choice? Weak on 2nd amendment? Am I remembering her right?
She was the classic Doug Forrester style candidate except in drag. She styled herself as a moderate libertarian candidate in the model of Christie Todd Whitman, despite that the model has failed to work since Whitman won on a fluke that only occurred because Florio became a four letter word in New Jersey.
Eastabrook really does have a health problem. She had a stroke. The paper reported that her face started drooping on one side, and her arm went numb. This is not just an excuse for her.
BTW, I agree with your thoughts on making sure each Senate race has at least a second tier candidate, so if something happens, we can take advantage.
I was actually quoting the article that said "health" and I didn't mean to make it sound like they were eye-winking quotes.
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I wonder if Nicholas Brady, the Bush I Treasury Secretary and Lautenberg's predecessor in the Senate, would be interested. He's 12 years younger than Lautenberg, and with some distance of years his tenure at Treasury is well-regarded for his handling of South American debt. I gather he still lives in Jersey. Then again, a guy like that has probably been out of politics for 16 years for a reason.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
He was only chosen as a seat-filler and besides he's turning 78 this year. But as long as we're talking Treasury Secretaries, Hank Paulson is from New Jersey. Not that he's even slightly interested in running.
Admittedly, I do like "Jersey Joe." He's a very unique candidate whose quirks could pull him over the top over the widely perceived too-old-to-serve Lautenberg. However, saying that, I know that this fight is far from over.
Outside of Joseph Plumeri, who is more of a longshot candidate since he lacks even more presence than Estabrook in the state, State Senator Kevin O'Toole, who was one of those approached by the NRSC to run for this seat, has been promoting fellow State Senator Bill Baroni, arguably the most successful Republican in the state. Baroni is also McCain's New Jersey State Chairman and was one of the leading candidates to run for this seat very early before he announced he was focusing on the State Senate. If there was an A-list Republican in New Jersey, it would be Baroni - and if he does decide to enter, he will win the nomination. As for his politics, he is a pro-union, pro-life Republican who is likely the only Republican in the state that could convincingly bring in crossover Democratic votes - something very neccessary to win in NJ.
If Baroni decides not to run, then the very experienced diplomat, mega-donor, current Ambassador to Brazil Cliff Sobel is interested in this race. Sobel could self-fund and would be a strong voice for the war on terror. His problem is name recognition and blatant ties to President Bush. However, he is a step up from Estabrook.
Chris Christie is unlikely to enter this race given the controversy with his so called "sweetheart contract" made with John Ashcroft's firm, but he was not long ago known as a Teflon A-list candidate poised to replace Corzine in 2009, so if he does enter, he would immediately become the frontrunner.
And finally, retired baseball player Al Leiter has once again denied interest in running at this time in his life, however he mentioned he is still very interested in running eventually.
Chris Christie is unlikely to enter this race given the controversy with his so called "sweetheart contract" made with John Ashcroft's firm, but he was not long ago known as a Teflon A-list candidate poised to replace Corzine in 2009, so if he does enter, he would immediately become the frontrunner.
If only we Rs put similar effort into taking out prospective candidates in advance.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
He retired 8 years ago. I totally agree that we need to contest that race if only to pounce if an opportunity arises.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill