The 48-State Strategy. [UPDATED]
Tell me again of the genius of Howard Dean.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 | Rooting For Injuries — Comments (34) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I always enjoy a good laugh:
Democrats' Dean argues against new Florida, Michigan primaries
The national Democratic Party won't pay for two states to hold a second set of presidential primaries, National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said this morning.
"We can't afford to do that," Dean said on CBS' "The Early Show," one of several media appearances he made this morning. "That's not our problem. We need our money to win the presidential race."
Bolding mine, and you'll see why in a second.
Leaving aside the fact that the DNC might not be in this mess if they had had the mother-wit to pick somebody besides Howard Dean for chair (see The Campaign Spot for more about the aforementioned mess), let me note something a touch more elemental. You've no doubt seen the maps that Survey USA released about the current state of the race: indeed, I'm sure that they've raced around the left side of the 'sphere right now. I suggest that the people who have been heartened by such a post let go of whatever they're currently holding, and look at those maps again.
Really look.
Clinton versus McCain
Obama versus McCain
What are those maps telling you?
If they're telling you, "Golly gee! The DNC needs to keep both Michigan and Florida Democrats sweet until at least the end of the nomination process: if they lose both, there's no way that they'll win the election!" - congratulations: you've demonstrated a level of political sophistication quite beyond that of the chief administrative officer of your political party.
Unfortunately for you, you're not the one running the DNC. The guy who is doing his level best to play chicken with precisely the two State parties who are in a superior position (and who know it) is. And he's the one who writes all the checks! Doesn't that just fill you with reassurance?
Well, it does me.
Moe Lane
PS: Yes, yes, Dean will be sensible about things. Just like Hillary Clinton was.
UPDATE (by Dan McLaughlin): Let's hear what Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat (and Hillary supporter) but also an elected official who still has to answer to actual Floridians, has to say about this brilliant maneuver:
"We'll explore this and see if there's some funding there [for another primary], but if there's not, we're heading into the biggest train wreck you've ever seen," said Mr. Nelson, who has endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for president.
"If [party leaders] go to the Democratic convention and they stiff-arm the Florida delegation, how in the world do you think Floridians are going to support the Democratic nominee on [Election Day, Nov. 4]?"
In a letter Mr. Nelson sent today to Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Howard Dean, he said the cost of any "redo" contest should not be passed on to taxpayers.
+++
Mr. Nelson says he warned Mr. Dean as early as last summer, after the Florida Legislature voted to move its Democratic and Republican primaries to January, that the decision could have catastrophic consequences for the Democratic Party.
"And I couldn't get Howard Dean and the DNC last summer to understand this," the senator said. "So we are where we are now."
This is like Christmas every day.
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The 48-State Strategy. [UPDATED] 34 Comments (0 topical, 34 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
This may actually be some compelling evidence that HRC can use to sway the super-delegates her way.
Of course, as is always the case, in close elections like this one will be the side that wins is the side that was able to get out the vote.
Fighting for conservatism one day at a time.
I start to worry big time...
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
I grimaced at the images that could evince, fostering as it did recollections of things I'd really rather were laid to rest.
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Gone 2500 years, still not PC.
...as in requiem in aeternam pacem.
Was that the proverbial Freudian slip?
[looks innocent]
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Gone 2500 years, still not PC.
I'm just wondering aloud on what sort of financial shape DNC is in right now.
Call me an idiot, but if both Clinton and Obama have been raising lots of money, doesn't it also mean DNC's own fundraising activities are more than enough to pay for do-overs in Michigan and Florida?
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Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
according to WS blog.
The primary do-overs would be $18-20 million each. Hmmm quite the dilemma for the Dems.
Well, maybe Hillary & Obama will kick in for this.
Mmmm...popcorn.
Oh comeon, give Howie a break; he's speaking from his heart and probably hasn't seen these maps. You can't expect someone of his stature to be involved in the nitty gritty details of electoral maps. And besides, he's been ultra busy defending the bank account against the meanies in MI and FL who don't to pay for the revote. Do you think this debacle will sway the Dems away for pontificating about who stole what in 2000? And how delicious is it that all this over moving up primary dates to enhance their state's perceived relevance when, if they had left them alone, their primaries would have likely had monumental relevance.
So you think McCain need to start suring up the base. You know the people that actually pony up funds. Not the mushy middle who pays attention every four years?
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8V84EL80&show_article=1
...but too bad for him that he'll have to spend it all defeating Hillary.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I'd like to know what's his burn rate and cash on hand? Those are just as important as the top line #.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
...losing Ohio.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Really. More popcorn Moe? I make a mean caramel corn.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
I find that schadenfreude goes well with a nice porter.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
to the start of elections in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004. Have we always been behind during the primaries, well behind or are we normally ahead? I went googling around to find the answer, but I can't find data points that show this information.
Erik
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Gone 2500 years, still not PC.
Click on the link Moe has displayed and it will take you to the electoral college breakdown. In both cases, McCain loses closely.
Erik
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I remember the Presidency of President Dukakis as a halcyon time of wealth and prosperity. Well, there was that little military excursion of his, when we pulled our troops out of Germany and Guam, and he "might" have been more forceful when Saddam Hussein took over Kuwait, and subsequently formed the Islamic Emirates of Iraq, but at least he didn't take us into any rash and undeclared war.
So Democrats have just officially made clear that they put getting power over making sure everyone's vote is counted.
Finally, after all the voting fraud instigated by their side, and their continued opposition to making elections more fair (such as blocking voter ID laws) they have finally come out and said it: We don't give a &%$* about you, we only care about being in power.
Evil prevails only when good men do nothing.
Help grow the McCain 2008 minicity.
It might behoove Republicans to support a redo in Michigan and Florida. Florida's media market is the 4th most expensive in the nation. Make Obama and Clinton spend their cash down here in advertisements.
I can only begin to imagine the lawsuits that could spring from a second primary. If Clinton lost Florida II, would she sue to keep the original results? Or would Obama sue to suppress the outcome?
Oh the fun to be had.
I wouldn't want to see the Republicans get involved either way. If the Dems want to spend DNC or Florida Democrat Party money tearing each other apart, then I'm all for it. The only downside I see is that it keeps the Dems in the spotlight in 2 important states (assuming a non-knife fight primary election), but that risk is one I'm happy to take.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
of course, do-overs would almost certainly extending the calendar beyond the June 7 Puerto Rico primary, since I assume it would take time to get these up and online again.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I agree, the Democratic Party has shown it's perfectly capable of falling apart on its own this cycle.
We have our own work to do to motivate the base, get the word out on Obama, etc. Start talking and working. It's still going to be a close one in November.
I have a feeling that in about 6 months, the American people are going to be wondering how competent and brilliant the Democrats really are. Much of their 2008 rhetoric is based on endless riffs about how brilliant they are, and how dumb and clueless republicans are. I'm not sure how obvious that will look in a few more months.
Do you truly believe the voters who favor Obama (should he be coronated) give Aunt Sally's wig about the state party and DNC nonsense? I just don't know if that is a factor down the road. Nonetheless, that appears to be the bet Dean and his short bus posse are placing, n'est ce pas?
"Nec Aspera Terrent"
bene ambula et redambula
Contributor to The Minority Report
show McCain losing to either candidate in the electoral count. Looks like we have some work to do.
If Michigan flips from Obama to McCain, he beats Obama 275-263...
and if Florida flips from Clinton to McCain, he beats Clinton 289-249.
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Halls of Justice Painted Green, Money Talking.
Power Wolves Beset Your Door, Hear Them Stalking.
However, from memory, it seems that the republican has been behind at this point in the race for the last few cycles.
It's true that "do overs" will get the democrats press - but is that good press? Press that will help them in the general or hurt? Coverage of a nasty brawl isn't likely to help them for the general.
is Reagan in 84. And I'm not sure he was polling ahead of Carter in 80, despite the miserable job Carter did. FWIW, Reps almost always lose on the generic poll.
This is a good point, and Howard Dean is a goof if he doesn't appreciate that. However, we need to keep in mind that 8 months is an eternity in politics. We're only just getting to see how Clinton and Obama will do in a vigorously contested race and how their messages may play across the country. Those maps will change as purple states shift back and forth.