The Michigan Primary

By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in | | | Comments (1) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

I'll keep things short: Mitt Romney's win only serves to show that there is no front runner in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. We are as close to perfect equilibrium as we can get and we will have to wait and see whether South Carolina and Florida will clarify matters. For the Democrats, it comes as no surprise that Hillary Clinton won, given that hers was the only major name on the ballot. But what was notable was the fact that "Uncommitted" received about 40% of the vote, mainly from African-Americans who would have voted for Obama and who were likely angry at the Clinton campaign for what was perceived as racial insensitivity (no, I don't think that the Clintons are racists. Far from it. But when it comes to the issue of race, they have been quite clumsy as of late and they have paid for that clumsiness). As Jay Cost notes:

As for the Democratic side - the big story is Hillary Clinton losing the African American vote to "uncommitted." The exit poll pegged African Americans going against Clinton, 68% to 30%. It appears that opposition by African Americans induced a split in Wayne County (where Detroit is), 50% to Hillary, 45% to uncommitted. People in the media are going to connect these results to the racial kerfuffle of the last few days - and they are partially right to do so. But I think there is more to it than this. Since his Iowa victory, Obama's numbers among African American voters have been trending upward. Tonight's results are another indication that African Americans are breaking his way. The Clinton campaign should be worried about this. It appears as if Obama might be able to take an important part of the traditional Democratic coalition. He is thus moving beyond the relatively narrow appeal of previous "insurgent" Democratic candidates like Bill Bradley and Gary Hart. This is bad news for Clinton.

People say that the Democratic nomination will be exceedingly valuable to have. If Hillary Clinton is bruised and bloodied at the end of the nominating process, I am not entirely sure that will be the case.

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South Carolina by pscblazer20

South Carolina won't clarify matters, it will most likely make things worse. I see them voting Huckabee and shutting out McCain for good because he would need that win to keep going.

Why did you not include Nevada? They do have more delegates than South Carolina does? I know some say S.C. is the key blah blah blah but I would not discount NV because it could be a predictor of how some states in the West and Fly over country do on Super Duper Tuesday. If McCain were to go down on Saturday, then CA and FL become a battle between Rudy and Romney with Huckabee trailing close behind.

 
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