The Narrowing Field
Rudy and Edwards are the only candidates who are out
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (34) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Everyone has heard that Rudy and Edwards are dropping out of the race. This leaves two-person races on both sides of the aisle: Clinton-Obama and McCain-Romney. This has two major effects on the race:
1) There will be no brokered convention. Period. I always thought the media overplayed this possibility as did supporters of candidates who were losing and grasping for hope. Before I thought it would take 4 credible candidates for a party on Super Tuesday splitting the vote to take enough delegates off the table for a brokered convention to occur. Now we have just 2 people on both sides for Super Tuesday. I expected we would have 3 and then 2 after Super Tuesday. Then it would have been highly unlikely. But now, even if Huck wins 100-200 delegates, the odds of a 48%-45%-7% breakdown is low enough to stop everyone from talking about it.
If Edwards had stayed in, he could win 15-20% everywhere and win 10% of delegates. It would have been unlikely but possible for a brokered convention, but more likely he would drop under the 15% threshold for delegates in D primaries as time went on. Now, it's impossible.
2) The odds that Mayor Bloomberg will run for President is tiny. Intrade odds went from 16% to 6% over the last 24 hours based on McCain's win and Rudy's loss. Maybe the media will stop covering his ego-fueled speculation until he actual throws his hat in the ring. And that isn't happening.
The next President of the United States will be Clinton, McCain, Obama, or Romney. And the odds are in that order.
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The Narrowing Field 34 Comments (0 topical, 34 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Don't fall for the Hugh Hewitt/Romney/NRO 2-man race talking point. This is a 3-man race.
McCain/Huckabee/Romney
Huckabee is actually more important than Romney. Huckabee could end up with more delegates on Feb 6th than Romney. We're going south. Huck's backyard. If we must call it a 2-man race, let's call it by it's rightful name: McCain v. Huckabee.
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There are only 2 people who have a chance at winning the nomination. That's a 2-man race: Romney v. McCain.
I would understand the argument that it is a 1-man race. But Huck has no chance to win the nomination. He's an also ran, like Paul.
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Is entirely possible. Great thoughts Adam, but check out the new Rasmussen numbers up on Drudge. They have Mccain up on Clinton and Obama by over 5 points and outside the margin of error. Clinton gets a whomping by Mccain in November, as a longtime Mccain supporter I'm surprised you can't see that.
I know personal andectoes aren't worth the paper or bandwith they are written on, but I have a strong feeling alot of Edwards primary voters are going to be McCain general voters come November.
The big question is where does Rudy's supporters go, and what percentage. You can be sure they don't go to Huckabee. I know Rudy is going to endorse McCain, but that doesn't mean his supporters are going to follow suit.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
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I still think this won't be settled until Texas/Ohio votes 3/4. As to your rankings, I also agree although a strong case can be made that the likely order could be Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney.
My rankings would be McCain, Clinton, Romney and bringing up the rear by a large margin, Obama.
Hopeful: Romney v. Clinton, with Obama and McCain losing
Likley: Obama v. McCain, with Clinton and Romney losing
Evil prevails only when good men do nothing.
McCain has a better chance of being POTUS than Clinton by virtue of the fact that he has a better chance of winning his party's nomination.
Romney will make no more wins other than Massecusetts and Utah.
Romney has zero chance of winning any Southern state. Zero.
McCain's chances are overrated. Will the South go for gay marriage McCain? It would be a scary day to see that come. McCain mainly won SC because of Fred Thompson who knew he wasn't going to win just like everyone else knew it.
So Mike Huckabee I think will win in the South and McCain will lose.
Ofcourse Romney supporters will always say the race is a two man race between Romney and someone else. Romney could drop out and they still would say that. But if Romney wants to keep on wasting his money than I guess that is his choice.
I hope for Mike Huckabee to do well in the South and this really should happen if you think about it.
He hasn't shown up anywhere since he won Iowa. He was widely expected to win South Carolina in what to be a shot to the gut when McCain pulled it out. Other than that he has come in no better than third anywhere. He is an alsoran that appeals to a narrow margin of the GOP electorate. The sooner Huck leaves the better for everyone, and our party.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Huckabee appeals to many people other than just Evangelicals and they are more than just a narrow group. Huckabee appeals to social conservatives of all kinds like Catholics and other people who are social conservatives.
Your party of the reason this party is in the shape it is in.
You know that Romney has no chance to win in the South at all right?
Not a single Southern state.
Zero chance.
Zero. Zero. Zero.
Romney is irrelevant, he lost in Flordia and can't win a single Southern state.
Huckabee however can and should win in most if not all of the Southern states.
I just LOVE it when anonymous ignorant bloggers start making proclamations as though pronouncing the word of God. Moses, go home!
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
McCain campaigned for an AZ marriage amendment. So will Southerners vote for this honorable military man who is pro-life and a defender of traditional marriage? You tell me.
And no, I have thought about it. Huck will do okay in the South but even there evangelicals can't carry you all the way in a 2-man race. McCain v. Huck in the South. Huck gets nothing else. So Huck's in 3rd by a big distance.
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Are you saying that John McCain is supportive of stopping gay marriage?
If so you must not have any problems with boldface lying.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/14/mccain.marriage/
And thats just a quick and easy reference.
People aren't as stupid as you think. You insult people's intellegence.
I've got my facts straight. You get your's straight.
McCain was against a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. Here's the crux of his Federalist position on this issue:
"But McCain argued on the Senate floor that there are "far less draconian" remedies, including the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act -- which defined marriage for purposes of federal law as a union between a man and a woman and allowed states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages legally performed in other states -- and state constitutional amendments limiting marriage to heterosexual couples.
He said if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down the Defense of Marriage Act or "state remedies to judicial activism fail," then amending the federal Constitution might be "appropriate."
But he said the decision in Massachusetts to legalize same-sex marriages does "not represent a death knell to marriage."
"What evidence do we have that states are incapable of further exercising an authority they have exercised successfully for over 200 years?" McCain said.
"We will have to wait a little longer to see if Armageddon has arrived."
make Sen McCain a sympathetic figure by spurious attacks. I do NOT want to be put into the position of defending the guy!
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
Please respond to this comment, apologizing for calling me a liar. Then please go do your research and realize that McCain has never supported same-sex marriage. The second part is optional, the first is not.
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Let's indeed have an apology for your tone toward Adam pronto. With your next post made at this site, in fact.
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He has no path to the nomination.
When someone stays in after this is clear, it's just a vanity run.
And that's Ron Paul's job.
by NOT speaking
http://www.christianpost.com/article/20070522/27555_Huckabee_Declines_Ne...
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
just increased. His refusal to countenance and give credence to Carter's stupid remarks was possibly the best thing he has done in his campaign.
For Jimmy Carter to be weighing in on which administration is the worst in history is the ultimate irony. His administration was hands down the worst in my lifetime. He was the worst president in my lifetime. We have still not recovered from all of his blunders. He helps me realize again how important it is that we do not elect a Democrat in November.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
He has no path to a nomination for P. He has a path for a nomination for VP.
Even if he doesn't just win it by being cool or whatever, if he could keep McCain under the delegate threshold for a 1st round victory, he could just bargain himself a VP slot. He'd get it in a heartbeat in that situation.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
...but it just blows my mind most bitterly to think that there's any chance the American people could elect HILLARY FREAKING CLINTON to be POTUS. I mean, did we enter the bizarro world portal somewhere back a few years ago?
I still honestly think that it won't happen. That in a Clinton/McCain battle, it will be gut-check time and Johnny will defeat her.
If she really does win, and Bill becomes First Lady, then we are truly through the looking glass, folks.