The North Carolina Primary Semi-Open Thread
McCain should win the GOP nomination here, too.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 | Democratic Primary 2008 | North Carolina — Comments (33) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
[UPDATE 10:22 PM - Non-Presidential results include nominating Pat McCrory as the R GOV nominee and will face Lt. Gov. Bev Purdue. Walter Jones, anti-war R incumbent in NC-03, is leading a primary challenger 60-40%. And Ron Paul follower B.J. Lawson leads Augustus Cho 70-30% in the NC-04 primary with a lot of votes left to be counted. - Adam C]
[UPDATE: at 61%, Obama/Clinton 56/42. This will probably tighten further, but he'll almost certainly keep double digits. As I've noted over at the Indiana thread, this is going to excite many Obama supporters, the poor fellows. - Moe Lane]
[Update: At 14%, it's Obama/Clinton 63/35. That number won't last, either, but it looks like a good night for Obama, if not necessarily the Democratic Party. - Moe Lane]
[Update: With a whole 2,200 votes in, Clinton 58%, Obama 38%. CNN's already called it for Obama, for reasons that will undoubtedly be obvious very quickly. - Moe Lane]
Results here: the assumption is that Obama will win this one easily; that notwithstanding, everybody will be sifting through the demographics as if the secret to the Philosopher's Mercury* was hidden somewhere in the crosstabs. Which in a way it will be.
*Oh, go look it up.
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The North Carolina Primary Semi-Open Thread 33 Comments (0 topical, 33 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I just don't worry so much about a candidate Hillary. The same holds true for President Obama. I find that truly terrifying but candidate Obama not so much.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Well, I'm breathing a little easier. Calling it for Senator Obama that quickly strongly suggests he won by a good margin. I wonder if my 12% estimated margin of victory was conservative?
In any case, I'm happy with it.
From the exit polls:
Evidently some 35% of voters in the North Carolina primary were black.
And of those black voters, over 90% voted for Obama. That's so huge as to swamp anything Hillary could do with white rural voters. She would have had to win 70% or more of the white vote to counter that.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I was taught that making a decision based purely on the color of a person's skin was both wrong and the definition of racism.
Voting for Obama because of the color of his skin, not the content of his character, makes no more sense.
If my fellow NC voters want a black president, well call up JC Watts.
There's character and content. I'd get behind him in a minute. And it has nothing to do with skin color.
Of course I guess that's a one way street.
Wins men by 18 and women by 12. That would average out to a 14 point win (more women).
He won every region too. This could be a huge win.
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Exits always over-poll for Obama, is this because people are afraid to say in public that they voted against the black candidate?
I don't know, but the exits have not been consistently accurate for Obama, why believe it should change tonight? Let's just wait and see.
If you're a Yankees fan you don't want this to happen, because even though (up until recently) you had the odds in your favor, the worst case scenario was simply far harder to stomach.
I'd sleep easier with a Hillary than an Obama, on taxes and on national defense neither compares to McCain, but Hillary I believe is far closer to the center if not in the center than Obama.
From the CNN exit polls:
18% of respondents said that the race of the candidate was important to them. And of those, over 60% voted for Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NCDEM
In other words, black voters wanted to vote for a black candidate. 91% of black voters voted for Obama.
Those liberal pundits who claim that "race shouldn't be a factor in picking a candidate" either don't know or don't care that it's the black voters who are being guided by race.
The only white voters Obama won were 56% of white voters under the age of 29. Hillary won in every other age group among white voters.
one-sided voting of the black populations in these Democratic primaries. People can't possibly believe that Obama is so much better than Hillary as to justify a 9-1 measure.
Isn't it just as racist to give someone a benefit simply because of race as it is to give someone a disadvantage simply because of race?
that they identify with.
Irish and Catholics for Kennedy wasn't racist.
Italian pride for Scalia is not racist.
Unlike Jackson... Obama won in some states where there is not a huge African American vote (Iowa), and when Obama showed he is credible--they rallied behind him.
He is liberal, but then again the African-American vote has been a huge voting block for Democrats.
At the same time, I think it's fair for Bill to comment on the fact Obama has had trouble with blue-collar white voting blocks in Texas, Ohio, Penn, etc.
Let's not PC get in the way of genuine analysis.
I am a bit shocked by huge Obama win in the state
I thought he would win but with 55% by the most
Obama totally routed Hillary among the college educated of the Research Triangle; among black voters; and among young voters (voters under 29 made up 18% of the electorate).
It's that kind of a state.
Sure Obama won among all age groups. Because black voters made up 35% of all voters among all age groups--an extremely high turnout for a primary. When you break out only WHITE voters, Obama lost to Hillary in every age group except white voters under 29 (Obama's usual youthful college crowd).
Hilary's chickens have come home to roooost!
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
But this is a huge win for the Torchlight Parade past the Fuhrer's Balcony crowd.
I don't expect the New Nixon to be able to get too many funds for much longer to be able to continue this contest. The key was the way the Chicago Machine was able to pump up Gary and ramp up his numbers in Indiana. Unless she can wow them in West Virginia, this thing is done.
I expect him to start opening up on JMC with a heavy negative media campaign.
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
in Indiana is from. If it is in Pro-HRC counties it could a 7-8 point win for her, if its the Chicago suburbs this nomination is over.
McCain '08
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
Real shame .
There were a couple of decent Republicans running. Watching McCroy for years. Spends money like a Democrat. Oh well.
Conservatives are taking a beating this year!
(The few that are left)
Did that idiot Walter Jones win his primary?
"I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist – jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference." - John McCain
I like the idea of running libertarian non-traditional Rs in some of these districts.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
a kind of experiment.
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about HRC meeting with the undecided super delegates to determine if she is still viable. Looks like she will give up, either that or she is going to let them look at the FBI files they have on them.
McCain '08
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
tick..tick..tick..tick..tick..BOOM!!!!
I find it very odd that polling had Hillary doing pretty well up until today...
Then the biggest pro-Obama county decides to sit on results while the margin of victory sits before their eyes... I think this is just simply odd.
As DEMS say let every vote count and count and count (in all fairness they never said let every vote count once)
My friend, don't forget the words of Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago.
"Remember to vote early and often"
Zogby's last minute polling confirmed this late shift to Obama. He's been pretty good at picking up last-minute shifts like this.
I have a theory about why.
Only a few days ago, Hillary let slip that she was going to ask the Rules Committee to seat the FL and MI delegations at the convention (which she dominates)--if she won big in Indiana and NC.
That got reported by HuffPo, and the netroots instantly went ballistic. Maybe that caused a last-minute push by the netroots to get out their vote tonight.
My guess is the next president was decided last night. Barack Hussein Obama it wiil be. I think it would have been hard for any republican to win this year, but picking the "moderate" was the worse choice possible.
I hope for a long summer, because the fall will be very bad.
Disagree now? Let's talk after the election.
I am hoping that this primary helps transmute base candidate into golden boy for us. If Hillary manages to keep Obama into the lower end of the single digits it just may.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777