China's Plans to Disrupt American Communications Networks
Asymmetric Warfare
By blackhedd Posted in China | cyberwarfare | Foreign Affairs — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
You may or may not have been paying attention early last September when several unusual disruptions rolled through Defense Department computer networks with links to the Internet. News reports at the time blamed the disruptions on a deliberate "cyberwarfare" attack by China's People's Liberation Army.
According to this story, Congress has just received a report that explores China's drive to acquire the capability to disrupt computer networks in the United States, most likely as part of fighting a war against us.
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Needless to say, back in September when the accusations surfaced in the world press, China scurried to deny the story and to accuse the US of thinking like there was still a Cold War on. From the Financial Times story linked above:
China yesterday strongly denied reports that its military was behind a hacking attack on the Pentagon computer network this year.
Jiang Yu, a foreign ministry spokeswoman, said at a regular news briefing that the accusations against China were "absurd".
"The criticism is un-founded, which represents cold war thinking," she said.
I'll let you evaluate the credibility of these statements for yourself.
Now the Defense Department runs a lot of networks, and in fact networked communications are a core element of our approach to war-fighting. But while DoD's public networks (the ones with .mil top-level domains) are linked to the open Internet and thus are vulnerable to hacking activities, the Pentagon also has extensive networks that are totally private. Those are not the subject of this discussion.
The report just submitted to Congress is from the US-China Economic Review Commission, and quotes the commander of the US Strategic command. From the eWeek article:
If the United States and China were to find themselves in an armed conflict, China is likely to launch cyber attacks on American regional bases in Japan and South Korea, and might even include cyber attacks on the U.S. homeland that target financial, economic, energy and communications infrastructures.
According to Gen. James Cartwright, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, China is already actively engaging in cyber-reconnaissance through the probing of computer networks of U.S. government agencies and private companies.
Cartwright said the data collected from these reconnaissance probes can be used for many purposes, including identifying network weak points, understanding how U.S. leaders think, discovering the communication patterns of government agencies and private companies, and gaining valuable information stored throughout the networks.
The latter point is a key one. You can get a lot of insights about an enemy simply by performing "traffic analysis" and generally observing his information flow. And these insights can provide a valuable edge in war.
So what if things heat up with China, let's say in a tiff over (likely) protectionist legislation or (less likely) Taiwan? Let's assume that the Chinese have discovered ways to degrade or even disable our communications infrastructure. This of course will have an impact on our whole national life, not just our military capabilities.
What impact? Just as with strategic bombing, that's not a question with a clear answer. According to General Cartwright:
"I think that we should start to consider that regret factors associated with a cyber-attack could, in fact, be in the magnitude of a weapon of mass destruction," Cartwright told the Commission, referring to the psychological effects that would be generated by the sense of disruption and chaos caused by a cyber-attack.
And the counterpoint, by James Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
"The effect is usually to solidify resistance, to encourage people to continue the fight, and if you haven't actually badly damaged their abilities to continue to fight, all you've done is annoy them, and what many of us call cyber-attacks [are] not weapons of mass destruction but weapons of mass annoyance," Lewis said.
I don't happen to believe that the Chinese include war against the US as a necessary part of their grand strategy. (Plenty of people in and out of the defense establishment vehemently disagree with me.)
But I think there's not the slightest question that the Chinese are preparing for war against us. There's no other credible enemy that they could possibly face, and if I were them I'd never assume that the US will not strike first.
Additionally, it might be useful even in everyday economic competition for them to degrade our normal network communications, through such capabilities as massive email-spam attacks.
Leaving aside a discussion of the circumstances under which we might go to war against the Chinese, let's recognize that they have little hope of ever matching our logistic and conventional capabilities. Therefore they won't try to do that.
But they will seek "asymmetric" advantages, with which they can blunt our effectiveness both politically and technologically in the event that we attack them. Hence the emphasis on cyberwarfare, and on capabilities such as the satellite killer they messily and noisily tested last January.
I'm not willing to judge China's ability to disrupt our national economy through cyberattacks. Modern communications networks probably have ways of staying resilient and functional that are not designed-in, but arise from their decentralized structure. But they have never been tested under full-scale war conditions, so we don't know.
Wall Street firms were deeply frightened by how fragile and vulnerable their telephone and data networks proved to be on September 11, 2001. By both voluntary and government-mandated action, they moved swiftly to geographically diversify both networks and people operations away from lower Manhattan. The lessons learned then will prove invaluable in recovering from cyberattacks in a war against China.
These are all important questions. But regardless of how we answer them, doesn't it stick in your craw to know that the Chinese are snooping around in your business, and spying on you?
Let's never forget that the Chinese fight dirty, both as economic competitors and as a geopolitical adversary. Perhaps we should be less hesitant to fight dirty against them.
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China need not be our enemy, but they won't be our friends. They wish to be, and are becoming the regional superpower of asia.
That is not necessarily a bad thing. The one thing that gerontocracy wants above all is stability.
If we can show them we are still tough, and not weak, but at the same time not wanting to threaten their interests then it will be like a more friendly version of the cold war. And that is ok.
China faces enormous problems in the near future. Their phenomenal growth rates are starting to slow, prosperity has not penetrated into the interior. They have a sizable muslim minority which is making problems. They face many social problems from years of their one child policy including a declining population.
I am still hopeful that what will emerge is some sort of pluralistic government, but there might be severe disruptions.
Or best policy is tiny carrots, and make sure they know we have a big stick. But do nothing provocative.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
Until they start acting a little more like a less threatening friend, I suggest they are an "enemy". Just yesterday, the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk task force (not sure how many ships) were denied entry into Hong Kong. How lovely; now the Navy has to find a port to give these men and women some time off. Is that actions of an "enemy" or "less threatening friend". Add that to this cyber crap and the fact that the Clintons are buried up to the eyeballs in China sourced funding, and we have need to concerned here about anything China says or does. By the way, this little incident in Hong Kong comes just two weeks after Mr. Gates visited their China and discuss a myriad of issues with them - how convenient of the Chinese to acknowledge their appreciation so quickly.
I don't happen to believe that the Chinese include war against the US as a necessary part of their grand strategy. (Plenty of people in and out of the defense establishment vehemently disagree with me.)
Plenty more agree with you, including me.
But I think there's not the slightest question that the Chinese are preparing for war against us. There's no other credible enemy that they could possibly face, and if I were them I'd never assume that the US will not strike first.
Yes, and it is no less true that we are doing the same with regards to China; it would shock me to hear that we aren't engaged in the same degree of probing and "cyber" reconnaissance on their infrastructure as they are with us.
These are all important questions. But regardless of how we answer them, doesn't it stick in your craw to know that the Chinese are snooping around in your business, and spying on you?
Not in the least. It's all in the big game, and it would be silly to let this get under our skin instead of seeing it for what it is: an expected element of being the (current) sole superpower in a world where other countries would very much like to also become a superpower (sole, or not) themselves.
Let's never forget that the Chinese fight dirty, both as economic competitors and as a geopolitical adversary.
"Fight dirty"? Come now... if we aren't doing precisely the same sort of things that they are, only better ("dirtier", to use your characterization), then I'd say we're being grossly negligent. Our administration owes it to us to find every advantage for Americans possible, much like the obligation the Chinese administration has to their citizens, or any other country's government has for their people.
We just need to continue consistently beating everyone else at it.
I have no secret or special knowledge in this area, but what I do know, based upon my reading and experience may cast some insight into this.
You are right Blackhedd, the Chinese do not include war with us as a necessary strategy. However, with that said, they also believe in not getting caught with their pants down if it comes to that. They want to be ready in case there is a war, just like we do with any potential enemy.
I do believe that the Chinese intentions in regards to cyber warfare are two fold.
The first aspect is information gathering. They want to spy on us as best they can in preparation for the eventually of needing it, and to aid in there preparations for it as well.
The second aspect is for asymmetric warfare. They do expect to defeat us with cyber warfare. However, they do want to be able to disrupt and blind us as much as possible in the event of war. They will not be able to take down our systems, but they will be able to disrupt them. In war, even if it is only for a few hours or even a few days, that advantage of time and information can be crucial.
Then if you look at the potential for civilian and economic disruptions, the effect, even if only brief, will be helpful in delaying our response to them. However, if we misjudge things and the disruption goes beyond expectations, in the same way no one expected the towers to completely collapse (things happen), it could be huge!
They do not want to fight a cyber war with us, but they are preparing for it to be an element of conventional warfare. That is why they developed and tested their anti satellite weapon. They want to disrupt out communications and GPS satellites to further degrade our systems in a time of war.
FWIW: This is my take in it all. Personally, I thing we are in a cold cyber war already with them. It is just not in the news yet. Our guys are smart enough to prepare for it too, and to do some of our own probing as well. However, unless it is dramatic enough to make the news and can't be denied, it goes unnoticed.
Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println("An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion.); }
Change:
The second aspect is for asymmetric warfare. They do expect to defeat us with cyber warfare.
To:
The second aspect is for asymmetric warfare. They do not expect to defeat us with cyber warfare.
Spell and grammar check reengaged with second cup of coffee.
Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println("An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion.); }
If only the world were a simple well defined us against them.
It is never that simple. Ask any IT type about what keeps them awake at night and you will get a whole range of answers.
How do the multi-national or trans-national threats fit in. What about those who straddle both sides and their internal networks allow a leak path even if you try to do a panic clampdown at public router edges.
Do I have to worry about a direct attack or just flooding the backbone with bogus traffic to drag it to it's knees.
These only scratch the surface and there are hundreds more thrown up at IT conventions and security seminars enough to make your head ache just considering all the possibilities and many of which the average joe doesn't even have a clue.
One China has lost a large part of any advantage they hoped to gain. Once you are aware that someone is planning this type of gambit and is doing so in a major way it changes the nature of the game. Much the way poison gas or tank warfare evolved WWI, they have started the evolutionary path of this type of warfare.
Its really worrisome on a host of levels that a sovereign nation is engaging in whats tantamount to an act of war with their largest trading partners. This reads either as factionalism in the Chinese with one or more out of control or an insane disregard for the consequences. Its one thing to participate in quiet, covert and deniable actions, quite another to take actions the entire world can't help but notice.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I encourage all Redstate Readers to become better informed, because China is our "enemy" in every sense of the word:
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan