Two Important Elections in Taiwan
How Reunification With China Could Occur
By blackhedd Posted in Foreign Affairs | Reunification | Taiwan — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
While we're on the subject of Presidential politics, take a look at Taiwan. They're staging a Parliamentary election tomorrow, and a Presidential election on March 22. For a clue to the stakes in the contests, check this out:
``Most Taiwanese want better ties with China, and Saturday's vote, if the KMT takes more seats as expected, could indicate a rejection of confrontational policies,'' said Yang Tai-shuenn, a political professor at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei.
I don't know who Professor Yang is or who he speaks for, but this is not the first time I've heard this sentiment from a Taiwanese. And just in time for the Summer Olympics.
You need to know more about this, so read on...
Taiwan's opposition party is called the Kuomintang. Yes, that Kuomintang, the party of Sun Yat-sen. They were unable to hold on in mainland China in the late 1940s, and through sheer ineptitude allowed the Maoists to come to power.
The KMT are currently the majority party in Taiwan's legislature, while the Presidency has been held by the Democratic Progressive Party since 2000, resulting in a divided government that reportedly has come to grate on the Taiwanese.
The KMT anticipate strengthening their legislative majority on Saturday, and they expect their leader, Ma Ying-jeou, to be elected President in March. Here's what a different Professor Yang has to say about that:
``The KMT is likely to get a landslide victory,'' said Philip Yang, professor of political science at National Taiwan University in Taipei. ``People are tired of the government's repeated corruption cases and the underperforming economy.''
One of the key planks of the Kuomintang platform is, and has long been, eventual reunification with mainland China. In practical terms, that means strengthened economic ties, and eventually a political rapprochement with the PRC. (Taiwan, along with Japan, is today one of the most important exporters to China, supplying high-technology components that mainlanders assemble into finished goods.)
The DPP party, which currently holds the presidency, has always stood for Taiwanese independence and expanded diplomatic relations with other nations. In regard to the latter ambition, they have been continually thwarted by the PRC (obviously) and by the United States (probably because we don't want to honk off the ChiComs).
From conversations with people who have been to Taiwan, I've long been of the opinion that the island's eventual reunion with the mainland would come about voluntarily.
Among other things, that means there will be little or no scope for an American military response. Reunification will end up being portrayed as a normalization rather than as the takeover of a free nation.
If these elections go as expected, look for the opening moves of a global PR campaign from China, regarding Taiwan. They could come in the form of television commercials broadcast during this summer's Olympic Games. Expect to see gorgeous little girls with shining eyes and bright national costumes, as the English-language voiceover tells you how anxiously they yearn to meet their great-grandparents, in families that have been tragically and needlessly split apart for three generations now.
It's abundantly evident that the Taiwanese love freedom. (They have also benefited mightily from it, to the tune of a $30,000 per-capita GDP.) Is that going to get thrown out the window?
I don't know enough to say. But the Taiwanese people are now being presented with two very clear opportunities to decide (and to tell the world) whether they wish to tighten their ties to China, even if it ultimately means they will lose their freedom.
This pair of elections could even be more important than the South Carolina primary.
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Two Important Elections in Taiwan 8 Comments (0 topical, 8 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
If I were Jimmy Carter, I'd go over there and tell them they need to form a Chinese Confederation. Let the PRC, ROC, Hong Kong, and Tibet all have their own governments as part of a unified China. Set up the national government along the lines of our old Articles of Confederation.
Of course, reasoning with the tyrants wouldn't work. But I see that because I'm not Jimmy Carter and don't reverse things in my mind.
I've been wondering for quite sometime now whether or not Taiwan might attempt to declare independence or something during the 2008 Olympics in Bejing. Any chance that could still happen or have they cracked down pretty good?
There is a larger group of moderate-younger Taiwanese who are wanting less hostile relations with the PRC mainly in terms of access to jobs on the mainland and the education.
And I think nothing would make them feel worse than for Taiwan to break out during the Olympics.
Has anyone looked at the competition between Taiwan and China in spreading money around the globe in an attempt to buy 'legitimacy' as an independent nation(I guess this only applies to Taiwan)? One can go to Central America countries such as Costa Rica and see the bridges and such that have been built with money from Taiwan(they are usually dedicated as such). However, China tries to trump the money that Taiwan gives and get into almost a bidding war to discredit Taiwan.
Taiwan clearly can't keep up in bribing nations around the world, despite their higher standard of living.
...willing to fight on Taiwan's side.
In any case, it's possible that Taiwan's reachout to places like Costa Rica and a few small countries in Africa won't survive the March Presidential election. It's a policy of the current administration, which may lose the election.
I really don't know what to say about the American guarantee of Taiwan's independence, in light of the fact that we've paid it nothing but lip service over the years. It's an ideological guarantee (because it's about preserving the freedom of the Taiwanese in the face of a determined and patient aggressor), in a geopolitical era.
I would expect it not to survive the Bush Presidency, which will also likely be the last to commit itself to the promotion of freedom as such. (Promoting democracy is a different thing. Also, I don't expect Giuliani to become President.)
If we tacitly abandon the Taiwan security guarantee, the only practical effect will be to throw out a few decades' worth of war plans in the Pentagon.
Even if the KMT wins control of the government. While they may seek closer relations with the mainland, they certainly aren't going to give up their freedom. All the pro-unification Taiwanese I know only want unification after there's significant political change in China, particularly multi-party Democracy. Almost no one wants the deal the Hong Kong got.
'Evening, Blackie,
Actually, that's been a key KMT plank since they got to their "temporary" regrouping point on Taiwan in 1949 - and it's always meant that someday the KMT would take back the mainland.
One oddity about a Taiwanese declaration of independence - which the PRC always feigns apoplexy about - is that it would also be a major climb-down for any Taiwanese government. The basic political tenor in Taiwan since 1949 has been that the government in Taipei - rather than the one in Beijing - is the legitimate government of China.
(p.s. - Taipei is one of the best "eating" cities on the planet....)