Just a Company of American paratroopers, a guitar plugged
into the outpost's PA system, and a whole lot of demolitions.
"We want the status quo, but we want jobs and a better economy"
Taiwan Walks on the Knife-Edge
By blackhedd Posted in Economy | Foreign Affairs | Reunification | Taiwan — Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Briefly noted, this followup to my piece posted here on the Parliamentary elections held today in Taiwan. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party did very well, as expected, picking up 81 seats out of 113 in a smaller, reorganized legislature.
The outcome portends a similar result in Taiwan's presidential election, to be held on March 22. With this vote, the Taiwanese have strongly endorsed the KMT's long-stated desire for closer business and financial relations with the People's Republic of China.
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As I pointed out the other day, Taiwan has had divided government since 2000, with the KMT controlling the legislature and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holding the presidency. This division, which is blamed by many Taiwanese for the island economy's relative underperformance, now looks set to end. After today's vote, expectations are even stronger that the KMT's leader, Ma Ying-jeou, will be elected President in March.
The KMT is the modern remnant of the party of Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek. In terms of Taiwan's politics, they have always favored closer integration with the PRC. Their rivals, the DPP, have instead long stressed Taiwan's sovereignty and independence. While in power, the DPP have sought to forge diplomatic relations with several small countries (notably Costa Rica), and have tried to organize a quixotic drive to join the United Nations.
When I made these points the other day, our respected commenter Skanderbeg pointed out that the KMT (and presumably their voters) are not interested in a political rapprochement with the Communist regime (which itself can hardly be called Maoist any more). Rather, he believes that the KMT want to displace the Communists and return to their former position as the ruling party in Beijing.
Even if this is true, I don't accept that it's anything more than atmospherics. In any case, the fact remains that the KMT platform stresses closer business and financial integration with mainland China, and also that the people have now overwhelmingly voted for more of this. Note this illuminating remark from a man identified as a bus driver in the Bloomberg piece I linked above:
``We have given Chen [the outgoing DPP leader] a chance for eight years,'' said Chang Yi-shue, 57, a community bus driver. ``What we want now is to improve the economy and have better relations with China. We want the status quo, but we want jobs and a better economy.''
Give this some careful thought. Of course the Taiwanese want the status quo, which in a word means freedom. But they also want to participate in the much more rapid economic growth that China is experiencing.
It's by no means clear that they can have both.
And it's far too much for the people of Taiwan to expect the United States to continue to guarantee their independence, while they forge closer and closer relationships with the regime against which they would have us go to war.
It bears repeating that the Taiwanese feel the gravitational pull of their ethnic ties to the mainland Chinese, and that this may ultimately draw the island nation back into reunification with the mainland. Their desire to fully participate in the greatest and fastest economic boom in world history may trump their love (and their very brief history) of freedom and independence.
This would most certainly be a defeat for the United States, considered in terms of traditional Cold War foreign policy. But no one in either US political party or in any other institution has articulated a coherent foreign policy for the 21st century, that clearly identifies our interests and objectives in East Asia. So it's impossible to say whether the integration of Taiwan into the PRC is in fact a defeat for us in terms that are relevant today.
The GWOT is now the only thing we have that even superficially resembles a foreign policy, but it's largely silent on questions pertaining to East Asia. And in any case, the GWOT will not survive the current Administration under any plausible scenario for our elections this November.
If we may take Hillary Clinton at her always-oblique and carefully hedged word, as President she would concentrate on bringing socialism to the United States. Presumably she'd ignore foreign policy and leave it to someone like Richard Holbrooke.
If Barack Obama becomes President, on the other hand, it might be wise for you to start learning Chinese.
We'd better get ourselves a foreign policy. And soon.
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"We want the status quo, but we want jobs and a better economy" 13 Comments (0 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
...election. The DPP apparently have turned off a lot of Taiwanese.
Your anecdotes compare very well to mine. Ordinary Taiwanese are tightly tied to friends, relatives and associates on the mainland. Blood and desire for wealth may indeed be thicker than love of freedom.
This fact alone may be what will bring the people along when the PRC decide that the time is right to press the unification issue. Part of what will make the time right will be a much more developed state of business and financial ties between the two countries. And with this election, the Taiwanese have chosen to accelerate the process.
One easily-imaginable end-state may be a unification in all but name. In that case, if there were an armed struggle over the island, it might be that the Chinese rather than the Americans would be seen as the liberators.
One thing to keep in mind is that Taiwanese people don't see themselves uniformly as having ethnic ties with the mainland, though I have seen in the past suggestions that those who do feel that way are more likely to vote KMT than those who don't.
Because we don't even seem to fully realize that they are a threat, let alone have a policy for dealing with them.
It has also been a tough year in losing Abe and Howard, two of our most reliable allies, who were also concerned about China.
Items like this also concern me:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/wm1762.cfm
(I don't know how to insert links. I am a luddite!!!!)
The naive forgive and forget.
The foolish forget but do not forgive.
The wise forgive but do not forget.
for Hunter! He seems to be the only candidate who looks at China with any amount of concern. But I can't say I have a lot of hope left in his campaign right now.
The LDP is solidly on our side, and on the side of a strong Japan being a force for good in the world, no matter who's in charge. There will be no change in policy unless they lose the lower house of the Diet.
Abe was run of the mill for them. Now. I will say that *his* predecessor Koizumi was special. He knew what he was doing and was good at getting it, for both domestic and foreign policy. But guys like him are rare in Japanese politics, and we can't hold our breath for the next one.
Japan unfortunately isn't a country that deals in leadership much. They're good followers, though.
All Fukuda is going to do is embolden the Chinese. All our weak responses to their provocative actions such as shooting down a satellite and changing their minds on the port visit of the Kittyhawk and denying our ships shelter in a storm are doing is emboldening them. They see us not confronting them, and more liberal leaders being elected in their area(a recent exception being Sout Korea) how could they not be emboldened?While the LDP does still hold power in the lower house there is a leftward drift in Japan(This assertion comes from discussions with my aunt and uncle, both of whom are in the Air Force and stationed in Japan.) Japan had been making some noise about remilitarizing, but the clamor for that has died down.
And Abe and Howard were two of the people who a few years ago were throwing around the idea of a sort of "NATO of the Pacific," consisting of any Pacific democracies that wanted to join. Needless to say, this was aimed at defending against China in the future. While I am generally skeptical of such ideas, I think this might work. Then again, maybe not. But I don't believe, as many argue, that it would further isolate China, as to me it is obvious that China alreadly is seeking regional hegemony.
The naive forgive and forget.
The foolish forget but do not forgive.
The wise forgive but do not forget.
Just what should the response have been ?
Personally I was much more upset about N Korea bracketing Hawaii with missile tests.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Yes, it was their satellite, but the hundreds of pieces of debris it created are a hazard to many other satellites-ours and those of other nation's.
For one thing, we should have undertaken our own anti-satellite program-we already have the ability to destroy them if necessary, but we need to develop new weapons and doctrine for anti-satellite work, as to my knowledge the only way we can destroy one is to fly a fighter as high as possible and use a modified air to air missile. We need to develop land based methods, as well as from the air, such as kinetic kill vehicles, which is what the Chinese used, and direct energy weapons, such as lasers that can be used to blind or disable satellites. Their have been reports that some of our satellites have been blinded by lasers emanating from China.
We also need to tighten restrictions on sensitive technology sold to China and other countries.
It is also important to increase our counterintelligenc capabilities. It seems like every week I read about Chinese agents stealing secrets from somewhere. They have highly classified information on the propulsion system of our newest class of attack submarines, the Virginia Class, for instance.
We can also do other things such as deploying a second carrier group to the Pacific, or more F-22's to Japan, any kind of show of force. For example, it didn't get hardly any publicity, but a while ago we quietly flew some B-2s to Guam from Whitman Air Force Base, just to show that we can.
The naive forgive and forget.
The foolish forget but do not forgive.
The wise forgive but do not forget.
First what is it with people on this site constantly belittling our Aerospace/Missile tech.
Our Asat is the best in the world. When you say we have to put it on a plane and launch it, you fail to realize we have the only system that can't be taken out by a pre-emptive strike, is mobile and flexible.
As for landbased systems just what do you think the BMD program is. All a satellite is, is an exceptionally predictable missile payload.
You just aren't thinking clearly on the laser issue. The Chinese actually using the technique is a sign of stupidity on their part. (Google laser adaptive optics and then think what our actual capability must be).
Sensitive tech to china ? sorry far too late. We have chosen a different path and now we are stuck.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
First of all, yes, in theory, a ground based system would be vulnerable to a preemptive strike. However, such a strike would have to consist either of either an airstrike-using bombs or missiles, or a ground based attack using special forces.
To begin with, obviously no Chinese aircraft is going to make it over U.S. soil to use laser guided weapons(which the Chinese have developed, helped by our technology)or even long range standoff missiles. This leaves ICBMs as the only way to take it out by air. As you pointed out, our ABM tech is excellent. As for a special forces attack, that is where good old fashioned security and intelligence is involved.
In order to take out a satellite using a plane, the anti-satellite missile would have to be transported to wherever the mission was going to be flown from, and mated onto the plane. It would take some time. If in the future the Chinese initiate conflict, we may have a need to degrade their satellite system very quickly. Ideally, we should have both land and air based capability.
As for the assertion that satellites can be taken out using ABM systems, I am not sure. Satellites orbit higher than missiles travel. Besides, if a conflict breaks out, we want our ABM to be focused and ready to rapidly destroy any incoming missiles, not out shooting at satellites. That needs to be the responsibility of another unit, designated solely for that purpose. Perhaps they will use the same technology.
And I fail to see how I am not thinking clearly on the laser issue. Just what to you mean it was stupid on their part? Their goal was not to destroy our satellite. Perhaps it was an actual test of their ability to momentarily blind our satellites, but what it really was was a test to see how far they could push us.
And if you are implying that they already have some of our most sensitive technology, than you are correct. However, I see no need to allow them continued access to anything they haven't recieved or stolen already.
As for us being the world's policeman and space's hall monitor, there is a very real possibility that debris from their test could have caused the destruction of one or more other satellites. Now that could be harmless, resulting in people losing satellite TV for a while, or it could be dangerous, causing for instance a disruption in U.S. military communications somewhere, or the GPS system on a 400,000 ton oil tanker to go down. And even if it this wasn't the case, it was the Chinese again testing us. This test was as much a political test as it was military.
The naive forgive and forget.
The foolish forget but do not forgive.
The wise forgive but do not forget.
first ground based or mobile air launch or sea launch any space mission has to be launched from a particular window of coordinates determined by the capabilities of the launch vehicle. So any groundbased system is going to have much more limited time windows to attack a given target all things being equal. As to having to transport our current Asat, the thing attaches to an F15. Transportation problem solved.
Geosynchronous satellites are indeed above the range of our ABMs . They do not comprise the bulk of Military satellites which are in leo (Low Earth Orbit).
As to the chinese being stupid. All they did was let us know they have a laser blinding capability. We can now act accordingly. In effect they neutralized their own capability.
As to the test putting junk in space, do you realize just how much crap is in orbit ? Just what percentage of it is ours. If we made the chinese clean up after themselves the rest of the world would be on our butt about our litterbug practices. Its a major effort just track where all the stuff is, god knows what it will take to start cleaning it up.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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When I was over there last year I was struck by how important many of them thought the social ties to mainland China were, and what a big deal things like direct flights to the mainland for holidays were. My impression with meeting with the locals was that those social ties where as important if not more important than any other aspect.
The party leaders I met with had very different agendas than this however. It seems to me that most of the locals accept the status quo of being strongly economically tied to China and not wanting to either push for either 'independence' or unification. Yet that is essentially what the two parties push as their over arching goals. Either poking their finger in the eyes of the sleeping giant or living with the sleeping giant as their rule. It seems to me that neither of these is what the people themselves want as long as they can continue to increase the social ties with China and the economic trade that is vital to both countries.
I'd also be curious as to how much Chen's curruption played into recent results.