Redstate

Posted at 9:33am on Jan. 4, 2008 Michigan: The Rodney Dangerfield of Democrats' America

By RightMichigan.com

Cross-posted on Right Michigan at www.RightMichigan.com.

Iowa's done.  What's next?  Michigan!  Yeah, yeah, I know.  New Hampshire is actually next, technically.  And you've got to figure in Wyoming and South Carolina.  So maybe we're not "next" but in only eleven days Michigan voters will head to the polls to vote for their choice to be the next leader of the free world.  

Posted in Barack Obama | Breaking News | Hillary Clinton | Iowa | John Edwards | Michigan | POTUS — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 7:33am on Jan. 4, 2008 A view on Iowa from New Hampshire

By Soren Dayton

Mike Huckabee's stunning victory in Iowa will have a number of consequences in New Hampshire, where I am now. Last night John McCain flew from Iowa to New Hampshire for his caucus-watching party. At the same time, Rudy Giuliani left New Hampshire before the caucuses even began. It is not clear to me that he is coming back to New Hampshire.

Until a poll shows otherwise, this is still a John McCain versus Mitt Romney fight at the top, just like Iowa was a Romney versus Huckabee fight. Iowa's results seem to help McCain and hurt Romney in NH. At the same time, it endangers Rudy.

Mitt Romney took a hit. Look at the opening paragraph of the AP story:

Republican Mitt Romney failed Thursday to pick up the first of two back-to-back wins he hoped would propel him toward his party's presidential nomination, losing the Iowa caucuses five days before what is now for him a pivotal New Hampshire primary.

(That's actually significantly toned down from the first story that hit the wire) The Romney campaign, already down, can expect much more negative coverage from the media, which already dislikes him. It is certainly possible that there will be falling turnout at his events and fewer volunteers. Already down 6-9 points to McCain, this just makes his life harder.

McCain is trying to turn this environment tactically against Romney. Excerpts from his statement:

Negative campaigns don't work in IA and they don't work here in NH. ... 100th townhall tomorrow in NH. ... We put the old lightening back in the bottle. ... We will continue our positive campaigning.... Very confident of victory.

McCain is trying to remind the people of New Hampshire of his special relationship with them. The press is not reporting McCain's placement, and in 2000 he placed even lower. Local reporters and pundits expect no negative impact of McCain's showing.

The conclusion for the top-line race is this: McCain keeps his momentum, while Romney, his most likely challenger, will likely take a significant hit. Advantage McCain.

For the rest of the candidates, read on.

Posted in 2008 Presidential Campaign | Archived | Iowa | New Hampshire — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 1:29pm on Jan. 3, 2008 Fred Denies Rumors

By California Yankee

Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson says there is no truth to rumors that his campaign will fold before New Hampshire if he doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa.

At Politico, Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen wrote that "Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus." Here's a video of Thompson denying the Rumor on Fox & Friends:

Posted at 10:33am on Jan. 3, 2008 Iowa Caucuses Predictions - 2008

By California Yankee

I've waited about as long as I can before trying to guess who is going to win the Iowa caucuses tomorrow. I should go on about how no one really knows who will win, the difficulty of polling for the Iowa caucuses, and remind everyone about how Howard Dean was expected to win in 2004, but finished third. Nevertheless, here are official California Yankee 2008 Iowa Caucus predictions:

Democrats:

Posted in 2008 | Iowa | Prediction — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 1:44pm on Dec. 26, 2007 Tree sitting with John McCain and Mike Huckabee

The hip, new Republican alliance.

By Mark Kilmer

Mitt Romney's strategy has been to win big in Iowa and New Hampshire then, his team imagines, watch the dominoes fall. He has spent a fortune and a half in each State, in both money and in time. What if Mike Huckabee wins Iowa then John McCain takes New Hampshire, both results looking more and more likely? Romney would probably become a footnote, then for the frontrunners, it would be one opponent down, on to the next.

Romney's hometown paper, the Boston Globe, ran a story on Christmas by their Michael Levenson about the "unusual" alliance between Huckabee and McCain designed to stop Romney.

They need each other, the reasoning goes:

McCain needs Huckabee to beat Romney in Iowa's Republican caucuses on Jan. 3, so that Romney is weakened for the New Hampshire primary five days later. And Huckabee needs McCain to draw votes from Romney in Iowa.

In this case, methinks "need" is not the proper verb, but they each could make the other's life easier. Whether a Romney loss in Iowa would weaken him in any substantive way in New Hampshire is arguable, but anything short of a big win by Romney would give the impression that all the cash he spent could not gift the Romney campaign with the inevitability it sought. Huckabee, polls indicate, does not need anyone to draw votes from Romney in Iowa, but Iowa polls are not the most reliable.

Read More…

Posted in 2008 | Iowa | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | New Hampshire — Comments (53)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 12:11am on Dec. 19, 2007 David Yepsen On Iowa's Sleeper Candidates

By Pejman Yousefzadeh

The Dean of the Iowa political press corps reminds us not to overlook John Edwards or Fred Thompson as the Iowa Caucuses come up. Per my endorsement of Fred, let's hope that he is half right:

On the GOP side, Romney has slipped, and Huckabee has surged in Iowa and nationally. Other candidates such as Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, who never seemed to figure out just how they want to play Iowa, have effectively bypassed the state in favor of contests elsewhere. That seemed a wise strategy because it would help Huckabee defeat Romney here, thereby derailing his New Hampshire momentum and making that state easier for Giuliani and McCain.

Posted in 2008 | Fred Thompson | Iowa — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 2:31pm on Dec. 18, 2007 Romney's Sleeper Cell

By California Yankee

With all the mania over the Huckaboom, one could be forgiven for concluding the Republican presidential race is all over in Iowa but for the counting and writing the "Huckabee Wins" headline.

It is still two weeks before Iowans tell the country who should be the nominees for the 2008 presidential campaign. Despite all the Huckahype, I think Patrick Ruffini got it right in his "Romney’s Race to Lose:"

Posted in 2008 | Iowa | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | Mormons — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 9:50am on Dec. 4, 2007 One Month From Iowa

By Mark I

Originally posted at Political-Buzz.com

Sen. Sam Brownback became the first Republican to officially announce his intention to seek the GOP nomination a little less than eleven months ago. Since then, the race has had more twists and turns and ups and downs than a Six Flags roller coaster. Brownback is no longer in the race, and neither are former governors Jim Gilmore of Virgina and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich was in, for a day. Then he was out. Other talked about Republicans never made the plunge. Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina decided that his current job was a better one; and former Gov. Jeb Bush decided to keep his surname and look for alternate employment. As the campaign winds its way, mercifully, towards votes that count, all the dynamic changes have failed to shake things out. The nomination is as up for grabs now, one month from Iowa, as it was last January.

Read on . . .

Posted in 2008 | Fred Thompson | giuliani | huckabee | Iowa | McCain | New Hampshire | Republicans | Romney — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 12:26pm on Nov. 27, 2007 Gingrich Predicts Obama Win

By California Yankee

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicts Barack Obama will win the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa:

"My guess is Senator Obama's going to win Iowa and that he's going to win it by a surprising margin," the former Speaker of the House told ABC News' Diane Sawyer on "Good Morning America."

[. . . Read on]