Redstate

Posted at 1:03pm on May 14, 2008 Obamomentum, West Virginia Edition

He's Lost That Loving Feeling

By Dan McLaughlin

It's not every day you see the presumptive nominee lose a presidential primary in a swing state by 41 points (by contrast, despite a persistent protest vote faction, McCain hasn't actually lost a primary since Kansas and Louisiana on February 9), but that's exactly what happened to Barack Obama last night in West Virginia, and suggests pretty strongly why his campaign seems to be writing off the state for November.

Anyway, let's update the chart I've been running (last installment here) showing the popular vote trend since Obama's armor started to crack at the beginning of March. Here's the current chart:

Read On - there's much more...

Posted in 2008 | 2008 Polls | Barack Obama | polls | The Best Democratic Primary EVER | West Virginia — Comments (10)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 3:03pm on Apr. 29, 2008 Obama: Weak On The Issues

But At Least He's Got A Good Beat The Kids Love To Dance To

By Dan McLaughlin

There's a growing school of thought among Republicans that even despite his massive fundraising machine, pop culture cache and messianic aura, Barack Obama may yet turn out to be a much weaker general election opponent than Hillary Clinton. Hillary is certain to be a competitive candidate, but has enormous built-in negatives; any election involving her is likely to be very closely divided. But Obama, while he seems to have a much higher ceiling, also faces a much more significant risk of getting completely Mondaled. And a new poll from Rasmussen helps explain why - even moreso than Hillary, Obama matches up terribly against McCain on which candidate is more trusted on a host of key issues. Here's the key findings in tabular form:

Obama's inability to crack 40% against McCain on the central issues of the day makes him look less like a transformational political figure and more like the incumbent president's 34% approval rating. Note that McCain matches up so well against Obama despite "generic ballot" questions showing that the Democrats as a whole are more trusted than Republicans on a number of these issues. (Note also that McCain unsurprisingly beats Hillary handily on the ethics question).

Is Obama actually the easier target? Maybe, maybe not; any one poll is just a snapshot, and it's a long way to November. But more and more Republicans are eager to find out.

Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain | polls | rasmussen — Comments (14)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 8:39pm on Mar. 12, 2008 The sound you hear is high-fiving at McCain's campaign offices

By Neil Stevens

Politico reports of a new Pew Research poll that shows support for the war, and belief that we're winnning, is at its highest point in nearly two years.

According to late February polling conducted by The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 53 percent of Americans—a slim majority—now believe “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That figure is up from 42 percent in September 2007.

The percentage of those who believe the war in Iraq is going “very well” or “fairly well” is also up from 30 percent in February 2007 to 48 percent today.

This is not a good time to be a cut and run wimp like Barack "Widdle Baby Kitten" Obama.

Posted at 3:25pm on Feb. 25, 2008 Would Obama Destroy McCain?

It's Early.

By Dan McLaughlin

So we have been treated of late to the usual chorus of claims that the GOP is doomed, doomed I tell you, at the polls if McCain faces Obama. Well, Rasmussen's daily tracker has McCain pulling ahead of Obama the past 4 days, and now up 47-43 in a national head-to-head matchup. The RCP multi-poll average still gives a 47-43 nod to Obama. (McCain's matchup with Hillary is more favorable). But if you looked at polls taken between January 28 and March 7 of 2004, you would see Kerry leading Bush in 15 polls, to 7 showing Bush ahead and 3 ties, and an unweighted average result of 47.48 for Kerry to 45.2 for Bush. Gerald Ford trailed by 33 points in August and lost by 2. (H/T) George HW Bush trailed by 17 in July and won by a healthy margin. Those are the most famous examples, but hardly the only ones.

But, you say, huge primary turnout for the Democrats presages a landslide? Maybe, but Democrats traditionally have much higher primary turnout than the GOP:

That's right: Democratic turnout in the primaries was 47% higher than GOP turnout in 1980, and 89% higher in 1988. Any Democrats looking to replay those races?

Folks, it's a long way to November. Yes, you can slice and dice the polls cited above to make the point that polling (1) has its flaws and (2) can be badly abused if you don't distinguish between good polls and bad. And that's even aside from the fact that these are national polls whereas the election is actually 50 statewide elections. But the point is, there is simply no evidence right now that Obama, whose real record is very unknown to the national electorate and who has never run a campaign against anything resembling a competent Republican opponent, has this race in the bag. He may justifiably be favored over McCain, if you had to put money on this race today. But he is not unbeatable, or if he is the evidence of that is as yet undetectable.

Posted in 2008 | 2008 Presidential Campaign | polls — Comments (66)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 2:19am on Feb. 1, 2008 A study of the limits of polling

Also, a look at the California Presidential Primary

By Neil Stevens

The new poll is out! Rasmussen reports a tight race in California: McCain 32, Romney 28, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 11, Paul 5. Wowee, that's a tight race with lots of excitement, isn't it? Too bad it gives us almost no information on who's in position to win more delegates.

Read on...

Posted in 2008 | California | polls | rasmussen — Comments (0)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 9:42pm on Jan. 17, 2008 Mason Dixon: McCain 25, Huckabee 23 in SC

By Ben Domenech

The last minute poll from Mason-Dixon of 400 Republican LVs is interesting for a number of reasons - notably the Values vs. Leadership dynamic, and the number of Independents for Huckabee (oddly high - more than half of McCain's total). But here's the overall numbers:

John McCain 27%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Mitt Romney 15%
Fred Thompson 13%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided (NOT READ) 8%

Posted at 4:44pm on Dec. 10, 2007 The Joy of Tracking Polls 8

By Neil Stevens

I can't be sure, but the movement in the last week of the Rasmussen tracking poll looks like a regression to the previous norms, although with a bump for Huckabee:

Posted in 2008 | Elections | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 1:31pm on Dec. 4, 2007 The Joy of Tracking Polls 7

By Neil Stevens

I'd basically stopped doing my weekly view of the Rasmussen tracking poll both because my health has been spotty lately, and because the poll had just gotten boring. After all, during the Thanksgiving break in the poll, we had a three way tie for second, Giuliani sitting on his average, and McCain slightly behind the other three.

Today though, I am compelled to post.

Posted in 2008 | Elections | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (32) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 9:41pm on Dec. 2, 2007 Don't look now, but public opinion is shifting on Iraq – and it's taking some Democrat politicians with it

Come again, Congressman Murtha?

By Jeff Emanuel

Over the several months since the implementation of the ‘surge,’ and General David Petraeus’s accompanying counterinsurgency strategy, the improving security situation in Iraq has caught the attention of the American people. A Rasmussen poll conducted at the end of November found that 35% of voters expect the situation in Iraq to improve over the next six months – “the first time in years that a plurality has given a positive assessment on the situation in Iraq.” While 32% of those surveyed still expect the situation to deteriorate, the current numbers, fueled by the success of Gen. Petraeus’s strategy, are a vast improvement over what they were just four months ago, when only 23% of the American voting public expected the situation to improve over the next six months, compared with 49% of the public predicting further deterioration.

The public’s long-term view of America’s undertaking in Iraq – though still not majority positive – is improving, as well. 36% now believe that the mission will “ultimately be judged a success” (up from 27% in July), while 44% still think that “it will be considered a failure” (down from 56%).

Read on.

Posted in Anti-war liberals | polls | War — Comments (16)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 8:00pm on Nov. 19, 2007 The Joy of Tracking Polls 6

By Neil Stevens

Another week, another crowded pack at the Rasmussen tracking poll, but unfortunately I'm not at my best health-wise at the moment (it's only luck that this is getting posted at all), so don't expect a lot of analysis this week.

Posted in 2008 | Archived | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 8:35am on Nov. 19, 2007 Romney Campaign Anti-Mormon?

By streiff

Either that or as duplicitous as hell.

Posted at 1:41pm on Nov. 12, 2007 The Joy of Tracking Polls 5

By Neil Stevens

The Rasmussen Tracking Poll is an going concern, and so here are my thoughts on last week's movement.

Posted in 2008 | Archived | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (16) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 6:05pm on Nov. 5, 2007 The Joy of Tracking Polls 4

By Neil Stevens

I seem to be settling in on Mondays to do my reviews of the Rasmussen tracking poll because the site updaters take the weekends off from updating, even though the polls go on over Saturdays and Sundays.

As far as I know, there have been no huge stories this week, no big events to shake things up, and it shows in the poll. There's little movement, and that's never good news for anyone in a race with no dominant frontrunner.

Posted in 2008 | Archived | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 2:06pm on Oct. 29, 2007 The Joy of Tracking Polls 3

By Neil Stevens

And we're off! Mike Huckabee sure enough has taken off in the Rasmussen tracking poll after his well-received performanace at the Washington Briefing, jumping right into the pack alongside John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Posted in 2008 | Archived | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Read More »