Super Tuesday
Posted at 4:52pm on Feb. 6, 2008 The Wednesday After Super Tuesday
By Pejman Yousefzadeh
So, a lot went on yesterday, no?
On the Republican side, I think it is clear that McCain will be the nominee. His night wasn't as overwhelmingly good as some thought it might be, but it was good enough to set him forth on the trajectory towards the nomination. Yes, there is an outside chance that we might have a brokered Republican convention, but it is way outside when it comes to chances and I don't think that a brokered convention will, in fact, take place. McCain has momentum, Romney is done--even his most ardent supporter appears to be conceding just that--and Huckabee's need and ability to play spoiler will likely dissipate once Romney formally gets out. The strange thing for Romney is that he won more states than Huckabee and has more delegates, but is in some ways even less motivated to stay on besides reasons of pure vanity. The Romney campaign says that it is going ahead and one takes them at their word, but the question remains; "Go ahead to what?"
On the Democratic side, well, things are quite bizarre. Hillary Clinton won some choice states last night--none being more choice than California--but she is thinking of shaking up her campaign, if this story is to be believed. She raised only $13 million in January to Barack Obama's $32 million, which means that she is going to encounter a money crunch going ahead. Last night, I heard that there was an offer from the Clinton campaign to debate Obama every week. Now, of course, we certainly don't need any more debates, but that doesn't matter to the Clintons because right now, what they need is free media. Obama would be a fool to agree to this; the Democrats have already had something close to 20 debates. What more is there to discuss? And why give Hillary Clinton any oxygen whatsoever, especially when, coming out of Super Tuesday, Obama may now have a delegate lead?
I didn't think it possible, but I now believe it is at least somewhat likely that we will be heading into a brokered convention for the Democrats. The bloodletting should be . . . um . . . interesting to watch, especially when it comes to the question of whether or not to seat delegations from Florida and/or Michigan. Recall that the two states were punished by the Democratic National Committee for moving up their primaries and stripped of their delegates. Hillary Clinton is pushing for those delegations to be seated and to have a vote at the convention--which would favor her since she won both Florida and Michigan. The Obama people would be apoplectic at the prospect, as would the DNC. The Clinton people will argue that it is democracy in action--despite the fact that Hillary Clinton was the only candidate to have campaigned in both states.
Posted in 2008 | Democrats | Republicans | Super Tuesday — Comments (11)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:16am on Feb. 6, 2008 Missouri Sums Up the Republican Divide
By Ben Domenech
The breakdown in Missouri is 33% McCain, 32% Huckabee, 29% Romney. To me, that sums up the split we face in the party now: with Moderate and Veterans going mostly to McCain, Evangelicals and Populists going mostly to Huckabee, and Fiscal Conservatives and Establishment Pro-Bush Republicans going mostly to Romney.
The exit polls are here: Fewer than 10,000 votes separate McCain from Huckabee, and fewer than 22,000 separate McCain from Romney. Huck gets the younger people, McCain the older; McCain gets the pro-choicers, Mitt gets the "sometimes legal," Huck the pro-life; the less you go to church, the more likely you are to vote for Romney; immigration hardliners went mostly to Romney, while path to citizenship folks went to McCain.
The only really jarring thing about it: the 30% of GOP primary voters who opposed the war in Iraq went overwhelmingly for McCain.
But overall, a bellwether result from the state, and in my opinion, very representative of the divide in the party right now.
Posted at 9:41am on Feb. 3, 2008 MI Morning Update: Romney wins Maine Caucuses, Candidates make final appeals for Super Tuesday
By saul anuzis
277 Days until Election Day
MORNING UPDATE:
Mitt Romney wins Maine caucuses. McCain came in second with Paul right behind him in third place. On to Super Tuesday!
POLITICO’s Sunday talk show tip sheet:
Two days before Super Tuesday, all the big-time presidential candidates take one of their last shots at making news Sunday.
In an 11th-hour bid to consolidate conservative credibility, Republican Mitt Romney appears on ABC’s “This Week” and CNN’s “Late Edition.”
Posted in 2008 Presidential Campaign | Michigan Republicans | Presidential Primary | Republicans | Super Tuesday — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:50am on Jan. 30, 2008 Super Tuesday Predictions Here
By Ben Domenech
Well, Florida's done. Super Duper 2/5 Predictions, anyone?
My own:
-Huckabee wins AL, AR, OK, and TN
-Romney wins CO, MA, MO, MT, ND, UT, and WV
-McCain wins AZ, AK, CT, DE, GA, IL, MN, NY, NJ, and CA
Missouri is really hard to say. Huckabee has polled well there, and could nab it from Romney. Same with Georgia from McCain. But I'm banking on the lack of money and organization thing catching up with him.
Posted in 2008 | Super Tuesday — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Read More »
